Analysis of German Data Shows the Higher the Vaccination Rate, the Higher the Excess Mortality

Researchers Prof. Dr. Rolf Steyer and Dr. Gregor Kappler conducted an analysis examining excess mortality in all 16 German states during weeks 36 to 40. The analysis compared states with higher vaccination rates versus those with lower vaccination rates. The analysis showed: the higher the vaccination rate, the higher the excess mortality.

Prof. Steyer is professor emeritus of Friedrich Schiller University with a research interest is in the theory of causality and the theory of latent variables. Dr. Kappler is a Multivariate Statistical Methods lecturer, senior data scientist and software developer.

Dr. Ute Berner, an experimental physicist and Member of Thüringen State Parliament, commissioned the two statisticians, Prof. Steyer and Dr. Kappler, to investigate whether there was a connection between the vaccination rate and excess mortality across Germany.

The analysis was based on data from the Federal Office for Statistics and Germany’s Public Health Robert Koch Institute (“RKI”). The authors wrote (translated into English):

“The correlation is + .31, is amazingly high and especially in an unexpected direction. Actually, it should be negative, so that one could say: The higher the vaccination rate, the lower the excess mortality. However, the opposite is the case and this urgently needs to be clarified. Excess mortality can be observed in all 16 [states]. The number of Covid deaths reported by the RKI in the period under consideration consistently represents only a relatively small part of mortality and, above all, cannot explain the critical facts:”

On 17 November 2021, Dr. Bergner presented the analysis she had commissioned to the State Minister of Health, Heike Werner. “2G is excluding and discriminatory,” she said. In Germany, people who are vaccinated against Covid (geimpft) or have recovered from Covid (genesen) are designated as “2G.” The so-called “2G rule” is, for example, when only 2G have access to restaurants, cinemas, theatres, museums or galleries and unvaccinated people are barred from entry. By 18 November a number of states had brought in the 2G rule.

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Dr. Ute Bergner hands over analysis of excess mortality to Thüringen Minister of Health Heike Werner, 17 November 2021 (English-subtitles) (4 mins)

According to Our World in Data during the period 2 February to 22 November 2020 Germany’s all-cause deaths were lower compared to previous years. From 29 November 2020 there were 2,916 excess deaths and by 14 November 2021 Germany had a cumulative 61,920 excess deaths.

Excepting for a few isolated places, the Covid injection roll-out started on 27 December 2020. By 17 June 2021 50% of Germany’s population had received at least one Covid injection dose and by 14 November that had risen to 69%.

Our World in Data shows that in the “year of the pandemic” there were no excess deaths while in the “year of the vaccination” there are excess deaths, almost 37,500 occurring post-vaccination roll-out.

Prof. Steyer and Dr. Kappler proved a correlation between excess deaths and increased vaccination rates. Instead of investigating, and in spite of this information, on 2 December the outgoing German chancellor, Angela Merkel, announced a national lockdown for those who refuse the Covid injection and backed plans by the incoming government to make vaccination mandatory.

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