The isolation of Vladimir Putin

<div><img class="ff-og-image-inserted" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/gLgphDn0dvB1dBWdnVyPiD3DjC8=/0x0:3201x1676/fit-in/1200x630/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23371655/1239295205.jpg" /></div> <p>Russian President Vladimir Putin is isolated — and getting more so. President Joe Biden calls him a <a href="https://www.vox.com/2022/3/27/22998458/russia-putin-war-crimes-designation-ukraine-invasion">war criminal</a>. American intelligence says Putin’s own advisers are <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/30/world/europe/putin-advisers-ukraine.html">misleading him about the war</a>, telling Putin what he wants to hear. So what’s going through this secretive, solitary dictator’s mind? We’ve found one man who thinks he knows the answer.</p> <p>Journalist and author <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/experts/marvin-kalb/">Marvin Kalb</a> has loved Russia for almost 70 years. In the early 1950s, he studied Russian history as a PhD candidate at Harvard. In 1960, he moved to Moscow as a reporter for CBS News. He’s interviewed many powerful Russians. But he’s never talked to Vladimir Putin. To get insight into Putin, Kalb says, it’s better to read about him than to interview him.</p> <p>For <a href="https://pod.link/todayexplained/episode/04725a7173115eab9da8e928eb1aacbf">an episode of <em>Today, Explained</em></a>, host Noel King talked with Kalb about how Putin has come to rely on a skewed version of history and an increasingly small circle of advisers — and what that means for the war in Ukraine. A partial transcript of their conversation, edited for length and clarity, is below.</p> <hr class="p-entry-hr" /> <h3><strong>Marvin Kalb</strong></h3> <p>I have found over the years that if you read intensely what a leader says or writes or thinks about himself, you’re going to get a pretty good idea of what he actually is. Sometimes in an interview, you get only what a major political figure wishes to convey. And he does that very well. Putin is an astoundingly good interview. And reporters who get interviews with him do very well because he can play to the personality. He knows how to deal with people. That’s terribly important to him.</p> <h3><strong>Noel King</strong></h3> <p>Based on your many years of reading and observing, and knowing that you have a keen sense into who people are, who is Vladimir Putin?</p> <h3><strong>Marvin Kalb</strong></h3> <p>Vladimir Putin at the moment is a very lonely figure. He is finally a dictator. He used to be an authoritarian figure. He used to have the kind of power that a czar had. He is now an absolute dictator. And for him, that’s a bad thing.</p> <p>What it means is, on the one hand, he has absolute power to do whatever he wants in Russia. But the people around him are now terrified of him. And that means that they will tell him what they think he wants to hear. That is very bad for any leader of any country. Putin now is in desperate need of solid, 100 percent verified information, and he is not getting it. That is the belief of the US government, of Western nations, and I think, logically, given the history of dictatorship, that when you get to an absolute top point of power, you begin to lose it. And Putin now is in the process of losing the power that for most of his life, he sought to accumulate.</p> <p>He is a former KGB official. One of the young men in the dying days of the Soviet Union who would try to live in the artificial world created by the KGB. He would imagine what the Western world was like. He would try very hard to understand it. He would pick up a language. The government gave him every opportunity to learn as much about the enemy as he could, and he did, and he thought he would be able to figure out how to manipulate the enemy so that he could destroy it. That was the whole point of the KGB operation. It was an intelligence unit, but it was also a unit that operated to achieve certain ends. And for the KGB, the end has always been the dissolution of the Western threat.</p> <h3><strong>Noel King</strong></h3> <p>We know that US intelligence has tried to assess whether the pandemic changed Vladimir Putin’s mental state, whether isolation from the pandemic changed him. Was he a solitary person before the pandemic?</p> <h3><strong>Marvin Kalb</strong></h3> <p>Every leader is, to some degree, a lonely figure, but Putin was not. Putin enjoyed being with people, but at the same time, he was always very suspicious of everybody. And so there was always a distance between him and anyone he was negotiating with. And certainly between him and a person he would regard as an enemy, and so, yes, distance existed. He was surrounded always by his own intelligence, his own ambition, his drive for power. And when he achieved that, he was very good at persuading the man above him, the president of Russia, [Boris] Yeltsin. In the 1990s, Yeltsin brought him down from St. Petersburg to Moscow and Yeltsin appointed Putin the head of the KGB, or the new version of it. And a couple of years later appointed him prime minister. And then when Yeltsin wanted to resign, he looked around and the only person he felt he could trust was Putin.</p> <p>So Putin became his successor, and almost immediately established a new kind of governance in Russia. He had his KGB folks ready to roll into power not only in Moscow and St. Petersburg, but all over the country. It is a vast country. It extends over many time zones. It is difficult to run a country that large and Putin had his people in position to run it, he had control over the entire operation. He became the boss.</p> <h3><strong>Noel King</strong></h3> <p>And so who surrounds Putin now? Who are his advisers? Who are his friends?</p> <h3><strong>Marvin Kalb</strong></h3> <p>The people who are around him now are the same people, more or less, who’ve been around him for the past 22 years. They are the people from the KGB. He allowed those people to take control over large economic assets in the country. Oil, gas, timber, invested in the hands of a very small group, and this small group proved to be effective enough for Putin to become the boss and run this very complex society.</p> <h3><strong>Noel King</strong></h3> <p>What does it tell you that Vladimir Putin has not made new friends over the last 22 years? That the same people who surrounded him when he was a KGB agent surround him as he is president of a world power?</p> <h3><strong>Marvin Kalb</strong></h3> <p>And that is an extremely important observation, because what we learn from it is that we are dealing with a man who had a certain vision of the world 20-30 years ago and retains it only in sharper form today.</p> <p>Please remember, Putin is first and foremost a Russian nationalist. The question that comes into mind: is he an ultra-nationalist? By which, I mean, does he see everything from a Russian point of view? And the answer, unfortunately, is yes. And because he sees everything from a Russian point of view, he looks at a country, for example, like Belarus; at Ukraine; they are both Slavic. They are both Orthodox in religion and therefore in his mind, they are Russian. And it is not understandable to him at all that people who are authentically Russian, as he sees it, could ever be in rebellion against Moscow. In his mind, they have to be part of Moscow.</p> <p>So we can look now at the war in Ukraine and say, “Isn’t it marvelous?” and indeed it is, that democracy appears to be holding on in Ukraine. For Putin, that is heresy. That is blasphemy. That is unacceptable. And so he will continue to fight to achieve the realization of what to him is perfectly normal.</p> <h3><strong>Noel King</strong></h3> <p>At this point, it has become very clear, in both reporting from on the ground and in reporting from the US Pentagon, Vladimir Putin is not winning the war in Ukraine. It seems as though it’s too early to say he’s losing it. What does that do for his mental state, do you think?</p> <h3><strong>Marvin Kalb</strong></h3> <p>Oh, I think it’s a shattering experience. That does not mean it totally undermines him. He’s a strong man and he’s very smart. He’s cunning, in fact. There’s a Russian word, хитрый, which means cunning, in a street corner sense. He understands power and he understands the utilization of power. He has very little patience for intelligence that comes to him saying, “We’re killing too many people.” Forget all of that. Where are we in terms of the end that I have articulated as our policy goal?</p> <p>In fact, his policy goal, now, is never going to happen. He thought the war would be over within two or three days. We’re now into a second month and it may go on much longer than this. I hope not, but it’s possible. And in his mind, he is pursuing a legitimate historical goal. And can he lose? No. Can he persuade himself, ever, that he has lost? No. The only people who can persuade him will never persuade him, they will have to get rid of him in one way or another. And those are the people closest to him. They are the ones who know his mind, know his methods because they are the same people.</p> <p>And if they get rid of him, there may be somebody very much like him who would come into power, or if we are lucky … if we are lucky, we may get to see the other promise of Russia … of literature, of music, of history, of growth, of creativity — Russia and the Russian people, it’s a great society.</p> <p>And if there were another way of leaving the KGB mentality and reaching into the other Russia, we would all be so much better off led by the Russian people themselves. Is it possible? Yes. It’s there. It has to emerge from the soot and the gutter that it exists in today.</p> <hr class="p-entry-hr" /> <p><em>Listen to the full episode of</em> Today, Explained <a href="https://pod.link/todayexplained/episode/04725a7173115eab9da8e928eb1aacbf"><em>wherever you get podcasts</em></a><em>, including</em> <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-isolation-of-vladimir-putin/id1346207297?i=1000556335619"><em>Apple Podcasts</em></a><em>,</em> <a href="https://open.spotify.com/episode/4poU72XEMKs4bshI3LIrav"><em>Spotify</em></a><em>,</em> <a href="https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9yc3MuYXJ0MTkuY29tL3RvZGF5LWV4cGxhaW5lZA/episode/OTE1Y2U3ZDQtNTE0ZC0xMWVjLWEzYWYtODc4YzMwOGU5ZjNh?hl=en&ved=2ahUKEwiL6omk-P_2AhWmD0QIHeRKCl0QjrkEegQIAhAF&ep=6"><em>Google Podcasts</em></a><em>, and</em> <a href="https://www.stitcher.com/show/today-explained"><em>Stitcher</em></a><em>.</em></p> <br /> <br /> source <a href="https://www.vox.com/2022/4/6/23013514/vladimir-putin-russia-ukraine-history-marvin-kalb">https://www.vox.com/2022/4/6/23013514/vladimir-putin-russia-ukraine-history-marvin-kalb</a>

vox The isolation of Vladimir Putin

Russian President Vladimir Putin is isolated — and getting more so. President Joe Biden calls him a war criminal . American intelligence sa...

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What’s the deal with the Iran nuclear deal?

<p>A nuclear deal with Iran was Barack Obama’s biggest diplomatic achievement, and its annulment was arguably Donald Trump’s biggest foreign policy failure.</p> <p>Nearly 15 months into Joe Biden’s presidency, the US, Iran, and other world powers are close to resurrecting the 2015 deal that ensured Iran’s civilian nuclear program could not develop weapons-grade uranium. But the hurdles in negotiations over the last 12 months — not to mention two recent hold-ups that could derail the whole endeavor — show just how big of a diplomatic feat the original deal was, and how difficult it appears to get back to it.</p> <p>Right now, the talks in Vienna are in the narrow space between a breaking point and a breakthrough. April 6 marks the <a href="https://twitter.com/AliVaez/status/1511425483271024643">one-year anniversary</a> of Iran negotiating there indirectly with the US and directly with the five other original signatories (China, France, Germany, Russia, and the United Kingdom). This week, Iran <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220404-iran-says-will-return-to-vienna-only-to-finalise-nuclear-deal">said it would return to the negotiating table</a> only to “finalize” a renewed deal.</p> <p>The original agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, required Iran to send abroad about 98 percent of its enriched uranium and it limited its nuclear capacity, with independent observers monitoring its progress. In return, the US removed sanctions that opened Iran up to the world economy. The JCPOA, according to international monitors, <a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2019-04/news/iaea-says-iran-abiding-nuclear-deal">achieved its goal</a> of curtailing Iran’s nuclear program.</p> <figure class="e-image"><span class="e-image__inner"><span class="e-image__image" data-original="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370828/GettyImages_1237436462.jpg"><picture class="c-picture" data-cid="site/picture_element-1649277774_7706_1662" data-cdata='{"asset_id":23370828,"ratio":"*"}'><source srcset="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/fsSqBe0-smqAycwLPgf-05JcwEY=/0x0:3000x2000/320x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370828/GettyImages_1237436462.jpg 320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/X4ypnRFuNCBA1mtkDpMuvx8uik0=/0x0:3000x2000/520x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370828/GettyImages_1237436462.jpg 520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Ka17QBzunBwmQZJtVtZniRuOloU=/0x0:3000x2000/720x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370828/GettyImages_1237436462.jpg 720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/zmM65ijIf6tB_pXdcNB3Nve6kTY=/0x0:3000x2000/920x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370828/GettyImages_1237436462.jpg 920w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ux9j_LC9WYERphx-cNmDhHBUAzU=/0x0:3000x2000/1120x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370828/GettyImages_1237436462.jpg 1120w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/pRqBippwj9lG3vuWTqVMyeDPeKw=/0x0:3000x2000/1320x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370828/GettyImages_1237436462.jpg 1320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/L84DtdwkNCssIGSTltueXWV3RZE=/0x0:3000x2000/1520x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370828/GettyImages_1237436462.jpg 1520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/gvSXGfOBK8RUNjARZyduMN28G6g=/0x0:3000x2000/1720x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370828/GettyImages_1237436462.jpg 1720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/6xf-9f1bSO9rrcMznGbwM9_8ay4=/0x0:3000x2000/1920x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370828/GettyImages_1237436462.jpg 1920w" sizes="(min-width: 1221px) 846px, (min-width: 880px) calc(100vw - 334px), 100vw" type="image/webp" /> <img alt="" data-upload-width="3000" sizes="(min-width: 1221px) 846px, (min-width: 880px) calc(100vw - 334px), 100vw" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/D-rL8iau46RWQ4ouj5ZnTTs-kJk=/0x0:3000x2000/1200x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370828/GettyImages_1237436462.jpg" srcset="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/KUBv1ndKLyN4oiU_PRqLuxoX030=/0x0:3000x2000/320x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370828/GettyImages_1237436462.jpg 320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/SlBN7m1K_r81NAl-6Or8Q-czkpU=/0x0:3000x2000/520x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370828/GettyImages_1237436462.jpg 520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/mzq8nPUZUrUGbMi3nbU7_grWPEM=/0x0:3000x2000/720x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370828/GettyImages_1237436462.jpg 720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/WGTptMCYOmthjo1zkWFc0119Eug=/0x0:3000x2000/920x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370828/GettyImages_1237436462.jpg 920w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/sGagCuIhP7oosdtUchLUn-tYV04=/0x0:3000x2000/1120x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370828/GettyImages_1237436462.jpg 1120w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/mlxTyges2BthDWRTzt2At3ZczEg=/0x0:3000x2000/1320x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370828/GettyImages_1237436462.jpg 1320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/TFlyDaY2_8GkxP1o38YeOeje_PA=/0x0:3000x2000/1520x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370828/GettyImages_1237436462.jpg 1520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/nSJGkiq7mRoeKDOxNX18h7SPV1E=/0x0:3000x2000/1720x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370828/GettyImages_1237436462.jpg 1720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/g9lR1O5WwE4FMfdKSRxQQOPcddc=/0x0:3000x2000/1920x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370828/GettyImages_1237436462.jpg 1920w" /></picture></span></span> <figcaption><span class="e-image__meta">Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani speaks to the press during the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) meeting in Vienna, Austria on December 27, 2021.</span></figcaption> <span class="e-image__meta"><cite>Alex Halada/AFP via Getty Images</cite></span></figure> <p>Trump unilaterally pulled out of the JCPOA in 2018 and imposed a “<a href="https://www.vox.com/2019/6/21/18700732/iran-drone-attack-trump-maximum-pressure">maximum pressure”</a> sanctions campaign. Those sanctions continue to be <a href="https://www.hrw.org/report/2019/10/29/maximum-pressure/us-economic-sanctions-harm-iranians-right-health#">punishing</a> for Iranians, especially <a href="https://prospect.org/coronavirus/sanctions-intensify-virus-spread-iran/">throughout the pandemic</a>, and have <a href="https://prospect.org/world/biden-continues-trumps-devastating-sanctions/">severely limited</a> access to medicine and food.</p> <p>In 2019, Iran started <a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/JCPOA-at-a-glance#:~:text=First%20Breach%20%E2%80%93%20May%208%2C%202019,to%203.67%20percent%20uranium-235.">breaching</a> its side of the agreement too. Now, its nuclear program has reached more advanced stages. Iran’s <a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/blog/2022-03-04/iaea-report-demonstrates-urgent-need-restore-jcpoa">stockpile of uranium</a> has expanded, with levels of enrichment much higher than permitted under the 2015 deal. At this point, Iran may be able to produce the material for a weapon in less than six weeks. (The JCPOA had put that time at about a year.) Still, the process of putting enriched uranium into a weapon could take <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/how-close-is-iran-being-able-build-nuclear-bomb-2022-02-22/">two years</a>.</p> <p>That’s why renegotiating has been an urgent priority for the Biden administration. The text of the near-final deal is not known, but experts familiar with the negotiations say that the deal — and the political challenges of its implementation — will be similar to the last time around. The primary new challenge will be that given Iran’s improved nuclear technology and capacity, the constraints on the country will necessarily be less stringent.</p> <p>If the two countries reach a new deal, it would mean that Iran is moving beyond the mistrust that Trump sowed by reneging on the JCPOA while claiming he could get a better deal. (He didn’t).</p> <p>There would be immediate economic benefits to <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/iransource/the-potential-side-benefits-of-a-revived-jcpoa-for-middle-east-stability/">Iran</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/can-irans-oil-save-american-motorists/2022/02/19/62a91a6c-9152-11ec-8ddd-52136988d263_story.html">the US, and the world</a>. With Iran more easily <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/09/business/energy-environment/russia-oil-global-economy.html">selling oil globally</a>, it might help lower the incredibly high energy prices driven by <a href="https://www.vox.com/2022/2/23/22948534/russia-ukraine-war-putin-explosions-invasion-explained">Russia’s war on Ukraine</a>.</p> <p>Most importantly, the deal would again accomplish what it set out in the first place: limiting Iran’s nuclear capacity. The chances of getting there, however, are tied up in the details, especially Trump’s sanctions.</p> <h3>What’s the hold-up?</h3> <p>Important clues about the status of negotiations and the major sticking points after about a year of talks were on display in at the end of March, as Middle East experts and policymakers <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/28/middleeast/mideast-summary-03-28-2022-intl/index.html">gathered in Qatar</a> for a policy forum. They carefully watched the choreography of US and Iranian officials appearing on stage one after another, but not speaking alongside each other. It was a visual encapsulation of the outstanding gaps in negotiations.</p> <p>Sayyid Kamal Kharrazi, the former Iranian foreign minister and an adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, took the stage. “Yes, it is imminent,” he said, “but it depends on the political will of the United States.” As Kharrazi was interviewed by a CNN anchor, the State Department’s special envoy for Iran negotiations, Robert Malley, sat watching in the front row.</p> <p>Kharrazi departed, and then Malley, the next speaker, struck a cautious and almost poker-faced tone. “We’re pretty close to a deal, but we’ve been pretty close for some time. I think that tells you all you need to know about the difficulty of the issues that remain,” Malley said.</p> <p>The immediate holdup, according to experts familiar with the details of the talks, is a sanction that the Trump administration put out in 2019 against a branch of the Iranian armed forces, the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-nuclear-deals-final-hurdle-is-lifting-terrorism-sanctions-on-revolutionary-guards-11647864073">Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps</a>, that has designated them as a foreign terrorist organization. That designation is <a href="https://www.bourseandbazaar.com/articles/2022/3/22/removing-the-irgc-from-the-fto-list-risks-nothing">largely symbolic</a> and the Biden administration’s hesitancy to remove it is largely political.</p> <p>Even if the IRGC were removed from the terrorist list, it’s unlikely that US companies would be interested in doing business with them. The terrorist designation is hardly going to change where IRGC will be able to bank. This is in part because there are so many other sanctions currently against the IRGC, including wide-ranging restrictions from the Treasury Department.</p> <p>But symbolism can be a powerful thing.</p> <p>To Iran, the designation is an affront. The IRGC is an <a href="https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/03/23/irans-revolutionary-guards-dont-belong-on-the-foreign-terror-list/">organ of the Iranian state</a>, and an FTO designation is strictly for terrorist groups that are non-state actors. As Kharrazi put it, “A national army cannot be listed as a terrorist group.” For Biden’s team, removing the designation may risk looking weak in the eyes of domestic American audiences who cheer militaristic policies toward Iran.</p> <p>And while this largely symbolic issue is the latest sticking point, it is not the first time that a significant matter has nearly derailed negotiations.</p> <h3>A year of three delays: the US, Iran, and Russia</h3> <p>When Biden came into office in January 2021, most experts agreed the impetus to restart negotiations was on his new administration, given the US was the one to withdraw from the JCPOA first under Trump.</p> <p>The main gesture the Biden administration took was appointing Malley, <a href="https://peterbeinart.substack.com/p/why-rob-malley-matters?s=r">a respected Middle East diplomat</a> who was a lead negotiator on the 2015 accord, which itself signaled seriousness. But absent sanctions relief or other good-will gestures, that wasn’t enough to <a href="https://prospect.org/world/america-and-iran-back-to-the-negotiating-table-nuclear-deal/">jumpstart negotiations</a>.</p> <p>Trita Parsi, an Iran expert at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, argues that the Biden administration should have gotten back into the deal through an executive order during Biden’s first days in office. But the Biden administration was reluctant to take any foreign policy risks that could potentially undermine its domestic agenda. “The time that was lost caused a crisis within the negotiations,” Parsi said. “The effort at reducing the cost completely backfired and actually increased the cost.”</p> <p>The more time passed, the more hardened Iran’s position became. With maximum pressure sanctions still in place, it seemed to Tehran that Biden’s team was using the sanctions to squeeze Iran even further, tantamount to blackmail. “One senior Iranian official told me at the time, that if we wanted to negotiate with the implementers of maximum pressure, we would have talked to the Trump administration,” said Ali Vaez, an analyst with the International Crisis Group.</p> <div class="c-wide-block"> <figure class="e-image"><span class="e-image__inner"><span class="e-image__image" data-original="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370837/GettyImages_905684.jpg"><picture class="c-picture" data-cid="site/picture_element-1649277774_8065_1663" data-cdata='{"asset_id":23370837,"ratio":"*"}'><source srcset="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/eAlILcxgVU1jhZaRmirGqwwm5Qg=/0x0:3000x2000/320x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370837/GettyImages_905684.jpg 320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/CAcjbdUWM7x86zjG1t1HsbxYSA4=/0x0:3000x2000/520x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370837/GettyImages_905684.jpg 520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/x_Ec6qLd9CO99QodyStB6AwsAJE=/0x0:3000x2000/720x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370837/GettyImages_905684.jpg 720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/4bRZQFE4Sf0IwNp_fYzGHNpgsII=/0x0:3000x2000/920x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370837/GettyImages_905684.jpg 920w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Plnjg6tZftz7GHfhyxHbxCJJ0Ew=/0x0:3000x2000/1120x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370837/GettyImages_905684.jpg 1120w, 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src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/sdVR8yaa-0-nwl_4y9pxJxVm2Ow=/0x0:3000x2000/1200x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370837/GettyImages_905684.jpg" srcset="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/jCcHfRIa0QdFB5xp5okV3y0hTZ0=/0x0:3000x2000/320x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370837/GettyImages_905684.jpg 320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/SDurnMnDTcP5jl6t7nHuTqOY3Wk=/0x0:3000x2000/520x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370837/GettyImages_905684.jpg 520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/vi_jQgXBqHfe8QHkh0HXmdS5lk8=/0x0:3000x2000/720x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370837/GettyImages_905684.jpg 720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/eKh-1ShPfuB9xi-YU2mQQTKgTts=/0x0:3000x2000/920x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370837/GettyImages_905684.jpg 920w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/GxpXaGTXXGus77hf1A1YNuzONGg=/0x0:3000x2000/1120x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370837/GettyImages_905684.jpg 1120w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/xuBf_r-YdmAoP90Tl5Z6-BxO1uA=/0x0:3000x2000/1320x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370837/GettyImages_905684.jpg 1320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/M8UzKJ6Ptgnonszvy59JS5QBEI4=/0x0:3000x2000/1520x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370837/GettyImages_905684.jpg 1520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/y_J8aKWLU6upt-uun6vJgAWT368=/0x0:3000x2000/1720x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370837/GettyImages_905684.jpg 1720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/uIRdhRvZ1glijyXrEkcZOYphQEM=/0x0:3000x2000/1920x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370837/GettyImages_905684.jpg 1920w" /></picture></span></span> <figcaption><span class="e-image__meta">As Special Assistant to President Clinton, Robert Malley (center) was a member of the US peace team which helped organize the 2000 Camp David Summit.</span></figcaption> <span class="e-image__meta"><cite>Sharon Farmer/Newsmakers via Getty Images</cite></span></figure> <figure class="e-image"><span class="e-image__inner"><span class="e-image__image" data-original="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370838/GettyImages_1235981925.jpg"><picture class="c-picture" data-cid="site/picture_element-1649277774_420_1664" data-cdata='{"asset_id":23370838,"ratio":"*"}'><source srcset="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/fbpQkgseTXT_YxMYrFk-S9L4luE=/0x0:3000x2000/320x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370838/GettyImages_1235981925.jpg 320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/RWtKi075eyEJQdwlKRV-jYTlHZA=/0x0:3000x2000/520x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370838/GettyImages_1235981925.jpg 520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/WT0j615KiUirMu1kO1QYxmpjMBY=/0x0:3000x2000/720x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370838/GettyImages_1235981925.jpg 720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ECny3PWoQ7Tpc9rvWLGdo6vv7Q4=/0x0:3000x2000/920x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370838/GettyImages_1235981925.jpg 920w, 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https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/wMfFXRNvXb1sGH9Wf6jFfcLCM34=/0x0:3000x2000/720x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370838/GettyImages_1235981925.jpg 720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/b41rQpX7T8u5V2h7EixvXa2lnI0=/0x0:3000x2000/920x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370838/GettyImages_1235981925.jpg 920w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/9QZoznhJIWDGmRKVl5J0v217kM4=/0x0:3000x2000/1120x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370838/GettyImages_1235981925.jpg 1120w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/gDe7ve-PeFafdrIyozu-qMaWhXQ=/0x0:3000x2000/1320x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370838/GettyImages_1235981925.jpg 1320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/dkRiM2VWxdiSOfTON86Irg7eIKM=/0x0:3000x2000/1520x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370838/GettyImages_1235981925.jpg 1520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/c_ZLkmPnyRrsIYWBO8TCP5Pu7c8=/0x0:3000x2000/1720x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370838/GettyImages_1235981925.jpg 1720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/znU52Nz7uYaCBRcHoMxk3DSab4w=/0x0:3000x2000/1920x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370838/GettyImages_1235981925.jpg 1920w" /></picture></span></span> <figcaption><span class="e-image__meta">In 2021, President Biden appointed Malley as special envoy for Iran negotiations. Here, Malley meets with Qatari Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani Doha, Qatar on October 19, 2021.</span></figcaption> <span class="e-image__meta"><cite>Qatari Foreign Ministry/Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images</cite></span></figure> </div> <p>Some observers argue that it may have not been politically feasible for the US to jump directly back into the deal since there was an <a href="https://prospect.org/world/irans-presidential-election-demonstrates-limits-of-us-pressure-campaign/">Iranian election</a> scheduled for June 2021, and ultimately a <a href="https://prospect.org/world/irans-presidential-election-demonstrates-limits-of-us-pressure-campaign/">hardline Iranian government</a> took power. In the meantime, the Biden team was spending energy meeting with the Israelis and the Emirates, who in 2015 opposed the JCPOA, trying to avoid potential regional spoilers.</p> <p>But some also say Iran took its own time coming back to the negotiating table, perhaps to strengthen its negotiating position with a more developed nuclear program. After the hardliners’ victory in June, talks paused and Iran didn’t <a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2021-11/news/iran-signals-vienna-talks-resume">return to Vienna</a> for five months.</p> <p>And by the time the hesitancy of the US and of Iran was resolved, and talks had advanced, a new issue appeared: <a href="https://diplomatic.substack.com/p/iran-talks-paused-over-russia-demands?s=r">Russia</a>.</p> <p>As Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine last month, the nuclear talks with Iran in Vienna were thrown into doubt. Vaez described it as a “tactical gambit by Moscow, to see if there is any room for taking the JCPOA hostage.”</p> <p>Initially, Russia <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/09/russia-nuclear-deal-jcpoa-iran-eleventh-hour-interference/">wanted</a> new guarantees for the sanctions it was now being hit with over the invasion, so that Russia’s trade with Iran would not be affected. The West rejected that idea, and Russia soon <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-softens-iran-demands-re-opening-way-for-nuclear-deal-11647382224">walked back its demands</a>. And the Iranian public <a href="https://dawnmena.org/too-big-to-fail-ali-vaez-on-reviving-the-iran-nuclear-deal/">took a stand against</a> Putin and Russia — Iranians are eager to return to the deal and the global access it will provide. “The Russia thing was obviously very dangerous, but it got resolved quickly after the Iranian foreign minister went to Russia,” explained Parsi.</p> <p>That Russia’s role came to be a possible impediment shows delicateness of this diplomacy. “This process is vulnerable to external developments,” Vaez said.</p> <h3>What a new Iran nuclear deal would do</h3> <p>Whatever deal Iran and world powers may forge in Vienna, it will look a lot like the one that the Obama administration shepherded in 2015.</p> <p>That is to say, the checks, enforcement mechanisms, and implementation will likely mirror the original JCPOA, but the exact parameters may be different given how Iran’s capacities have developed.</p> <p>The 2015 deal guaranteed through a United Nations–run inspections regime that the purity to which Iran could enrich uranium was limited to 3.67 percent. Weapons-grade uranium is 90 percent pure, and Iran’s purity level has recently advanced significantly to <a href="https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/iran-nuclear-deal-explained-11610564572">around 60 percent</a> since the US and it walked away from the deal, according to the UN atomic agency.</p> <p>The breakout time was about a year when Iran was abiding by the deal, meaning that it would take a full year for the country to develop weapons-grade uranium; now experts say that it’s somewhere between three to six weeks. The International Atomic Energy Agency <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/how-close-is-iran-being-able-build-nuclear-bomb-2022-02-22">says</a> that actually turning that material into a weapon could take up to another two years.</p> <div class="c-wide-block"> <figure class="e-image"><span class="e-image__inner"><span class="e-image__image" data-original="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370841/GettyImages_479048916.jpg"><picture class="c-picture" data-cid="site/picture_element-1649277774_6588_1665" data-cdata='{"asset_id":23370841,"ratio":"*"}'><source srcset="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/XrLtl34kza5lRqGWMq1PYBw6YC0=/0x0:3000x2000/320x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370841/GettyImages_479048916.jpg 320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/LmO8hrsRLiyKcvsPDI9ZW2rcTZk=/0x0:3000x2000/520x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370841/GettyImages_479048916.jpg 520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/y0yB0G25snNOe0u5wpmHcq5xbgc=/0x0:3000x2000/720x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370841/GettyImages_479048916.jpg 720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/jYvVt8TFHkb2zuaUBOpQMfceu_c=/0x0:3000x2000/920x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370841/GettyImages_479048916.jpg 920w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/QZ9exwi89tlSaNaJtoD8N5GuP84=/0x0:3000x2000/1120x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370841/GettyImages_479048916.jpg 1120w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/T7bKf_2CWgbJ6ORXrmjSfQRByl4=/0x0:3000x2000/1320x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370841/GettyImages_479048916.jpg 1320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/nyEuitbjRjrpgBv_SfFMMm5hL0I=/0x0:3000x2000/1520x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370841/GettyImages_479048916.jpg 1520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/X6ukiyO_pxt4KmluEYVLCsRaTgc=/0x0:3000x2000/1720x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370841/GettyImages_479048916.jpg 1720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ZjYyYG-RRKsYMBR-mU0TYns8aUo=/0x0:3000x2000/1920x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370841/GettyImages_479048916.jpg 1920w" sizes="90vw" type="image/webp" /> <img alt="" data-upload-width="3000" sizes="90vw" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/txoj7PY1qZuzmjzGDX0TU8k6A5c=/0x0:3000x2000/1200x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370841/GettyImages_479048916.jpg" srcset="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/A1Ye526KtE3URXXqTZtWdMdad5M=/0x0:3000x2000/320x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370841/GettyImages_479048916.jpg 320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/L1UCmPmMEo-82UAsKiTUsr8NieA=/0x0:3000x2000/520x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370841/GettyImages_479048916.jpg 520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/F2zwcSii3e_PIMWeMQo45IpWTw8=/0x0:3000x2000/720x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370841/GettyImages_479048916.jpg 720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/jvRzXHsj6GUPTJ4rin4Ubo0fIRA=/0x0:3000x2000/920x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370841/GettyImages_479048916.jpg 920w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/RNICreNUzwgrR0G-HNeMOejJVe8=/0x0:3000x2000/1120x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370841/GettyImages_479048916.jpg 1120w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/YNRVYIPRvRRJ40XlTmG5VfX-BJo=/0x0:3000x2000/1320x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370841/GettyImages_479048916.jpg 1320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Agvm5QilAK_8qTdPiHafN9edhiY=/0x0:3000x2000/1520x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370841/GettyImages_479048916.jpg 1520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/N_ucyV-wLaSs3adwmrx0IKhzM1E=/0x0:3000x2000/1720x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370841/GettyImages_479048916.jpg 1720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/YQa8SIivJgtctZ9c-jsDtnMOM1w=/0x0:3000x2000/1920x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370841/GettyImages_479048916.jpg 1920w" /></picture></span></span> <figcaption><span class="e-image__meta">The Iran nuclear talks in Vienna, Austria on June 30, 2015. Then, Robert Malley (far right) was the National Security Council Senior Director for Iran, Iraq, Syria and the Gulf States.</span></figcaption> <span class="e-image__meta"><cite>US Department of State/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images</cite></span></figure> </div> <p>A renewed deal would establish limits on how much Iran could enrich uranium and how many centrifuges Iran could have. Iran would also send Russia most of its enriched uranium, in exchange for sanctions relief. (Russia is committed to Iran not developing a nuclear weapon, has long called for Iranian <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/2/11/russia-urges-restraint-as-iran-starts-uranium-metal-production">restraint</a>, and has previously even approved UN <a href="https://carnegiemoscow.org/commentary/83915">sanctions</a> against Iran for its nuclear program.)</p> <p>“It’s going to be very similar, obviously,” says Parsi. “There’s going to be some changes here and there.” Those may include some sanctions imposed by Trump that won’t be lifted, or technical changes given that the Iranian program has grown to have more advanced nuclear centrifuges.</p> <p>The sequencing — that is, the timeline for each side meeting parts of its commitments — may move more quickly than last time, with the US and Iran acting simultaneously to restore the agreement. Back in 2015, Iran initiated the JCPOA by rolling back its nuclear program first, and only once international inspectors verified Iran’s compliance did the US remove sanctions. It’s likely this time around, Vaez says, “Both sides will move in parallel. This is penance for Trump’s withdrawal in 2018.”</p> <p>Critics of the deal say that Iran isn’t trustworthy and emphasize that the deal doesn’t do enough to limit Iranian proliferation or the country’s <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/iran-s-ballistic-missile-program-non-negotiable-president-hassan-rouhani-n1251072">other activities</a>, and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/global-opinions/wp/2017/09/11/renegotiating-the-iran-nuclear-deal-is-pure-fantasy/">a better one could have been negotiated</a>. But returning to the JCPOA is far better than <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/bidens-moment-of-truth-in-iran-negotiations-deal-nuclear-warheads-proliferation-centrifuges-fissile-11641504610?mod=article_inline">ideas like threatening a military attack on Iran</a>. “The critics of the deal, both then and now, have not provided a better mechanism other than continued sanctions, and that simply hasn’t done the trick,” said Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution.</p> <figure class="e-image"><span class="e-image__inner"><span class="e-image__image" data-original="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370881/GettyImages_1238998357.jpg"><picture class="c-picture" data-cid="site/picture_element-1649277774_1286_1666" data-cdata='{"asset_id":23370881,"ratio":"*"}'><source srcset="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/K6v-2MC-8eFUY2FFjfM5cBikRxo=/0x0:3000x2000/320x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370881/GettyImages_1238998357.jpg 320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/mUfmoHPASK7gJpexTflV4MoXKg0=/0x0:3000x2000/520x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370881/GettyImages_1238998357.jpg 520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/YLO16ydLkKYoYXVMhUeq-TB1JkI=/0x0:3000x2000/720x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370881/GettyImages_1238998357.jpg 720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/R5_ernW6LzNzbsMYflL0zmikCsI=/0x0:3000x2000/920x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370881/GettyImages_1238998357.jpg 920w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/9F6IWs8EqMqt2zCBO1sISjqveHM=/0x0:3000x2000/1120x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370881/GettyImages_1238998357.jpg 1120w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/QW7yHwcRrX68xLo8NGqGIbchq8o=/0x0:3000x2000/1320x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370881/GettyImages_1238998357.jpg 1320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/0VxuwASkNJ8a5ALtmiqvp-JQ8C4=/0x0:3000x2000/1520x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370881/GettyImages_1238998357.jpg 1520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/W0KllOETp7jzF1_kIXUq2o6UU_I=/0x0:3000x2000/1720x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370881/GettyImages_1238998357.jpg 1720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Gjzll-3KBfaVOQeswhdUfQf3v7E=/0x0:3000x2000/1920x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370881/GettyImages_1238998357.jpg 1920w" sizes="(min-width: 1221px) 846px, (min-width: 880px) calc(100vw - 334px), 100vw" type="image/webp" /> <img alt="" data-upload-width="3000" sizes="(min-width: 1221px) 846px, (min-width: 880px) calc(100vw - 334px), 100vw" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/HTFYV5Zma7DyLpZYqtQymiseyvI=/0x0:3000x2000/1200x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370881/GettyImages_1238998357.jpg" srcset="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/MRrwMMdUB6lNtkH11QdklkJSrkM=/0x0:3000x2000/320x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370881/GettyImages_1238998357.jpg 320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/bm4w_YVerzwTvfDNUZENaHfNAX4=/0x0:3000x2000/520x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370881/GettyImages_1238998357.jpg 520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/S41zJ0GyNlqAHCo6Zq7a4D3BkJI=/0x0:3000x2000/720x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370881/GettyImages_1238998357.jpg 720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/UFux8ml9o44UahUrUM7aVWuG1Rg=/0x0:3000x2000/920x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370881/GettyImages_1238998357.jpg 920w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/jMyD9aCqYvnjLnSoV8atyTX_DYs=/0x0:3000x2000/1120x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370881/GettyImages_1238998357.jpg 1120w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Qaae-eQO8jnresrRWXeb-CVDAps=/0x0:3000x2000/1320x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370881/GettyImages_1238998357.jpg 1320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/-rse9ejvR3I_sgNUxQrdwIYbM58=/0x0:3000x2000/1520x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370881/GettyImages_1238998357.jpg 1520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/lNq3k1BH2AlwJ1Lh6B0mXGeWUIM=/0x0:3000x2000/1720x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370881/GettyImages_1238998357.jpg 1720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/dFhVDE7VbtlPJVmnlpttIRzqF0Q=/0x0:3000x2000/1920x0/filters:focal(0x0:3000x2000):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23370881/GettyImages_1238998357.jpg 1920w" /></picture></span></span> <figcaption><span class="e-image__meta">Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi (top center), speaks with reporters after his arrival for the current Iran nuclear talks at the Vienna International Airport on March 5.</span></figcaption> <span class="e-image__meta"><cite>Georges Schneider/Xinhua via Getty Images</cite></span></figure> <p>By bringing Iran closer to the world, a renewed deal could reduce the power of hardline leaders in the Iranian government and revive the prospects of a pro-democracy movement in the country, says Nader Hashemi, a Middle East scholar at the University of Denver. “Those in prison and outside of prison celebrated the JCPOA for reasons that are not difficult to understand,” he said. “It meant the world to Iranian democrats and human rights activists.”</p> <p>Most importantly, a deal could minimize the potential for a war. Israel has threatened to attack Iran should it develop weapons-grade uranium in the absence of a nuclear accord. (Israel has nuclear weapons though officially denies that.) In the meantime, other regional powers <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/15/saudi-crown-prince-threatens-to-build-nuke-as-kingdom-seeks-nuclear-tech.html">Saudi Arabia</a> and the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2020/7/15/nuclear-gulf-experts-sound-the-alarm-over-uae-nuclear-reactors">United Arab Emirates</a> have sought nuclear capacity in response to Iran’s growing civilian program. All these factors risk a nuclear-arms race in the Middle East, and more strikes against Iran that could escalate out of hand.</p> <p>In 2015 when the JCPOA was signed, the US and Iran had “for the first time in 40 years, significant contact,” Hashemi said. “There’s also the hope that [a revived deal] would lead to other sort of discussions about regional issues.”</p> <h3>What happens next</h3> <p>If the sanctions against the IRGC and whatever other outstanding issues are addressed, then Biden still has to clear another hurdle: making the case to Washington and his former colleagues in the Senate on why the deal must be adopted.</p> <p>The technical procedure likely involves getting this deal through the 2015 Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act (INARA), a congressional review process created in response to the previous deal. But <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us-congress-may-squawk-over-new-iran-deal-is-unlikely-block-it-2022-02-17/">INARA</a> is a negative mechanism, meaning the deal is adopted unless both houses effectively get veto-proof majorities to disapprove of it. The Senate, through this complex parliamentary review, didn’t formally <a href="https://www.vox.com/2015/9/2/9247229/iran-deal-senate-vote">disapprove</a> of the deal in 2015.</p> <p>“That’s a process that is favorable to the administration,” said Jeremy Ben-Ami of the advocacy group J Street. “It’s not a real fight, because the outcome is clear.”</p> <p>Still, it’s worrisome for the deal’s advocates, and the Biden administration, that a leading Democrat, chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Bob Menendez, remains <a href="https://www.foreign.senate.gov/press/chair/release/chairman-menendez-we-cannot-allow-iran-to-threaten-us-into-a-bad-deal-or-an-interim-agreement-that-allows-it-to-continue-building-its-nuclear-capacity">skeptical</a> of the deal’s significance and utility.</p> <p>The Biden administration wouldn’t have to get congressional approval for a new agreement that is exactly the same as the JCPOA. But to build goodwill and the political buy-in of lawmakers, Biden’s participation in the INARA process seems likely. A discussion on the Senate floor of the merits of the nuclear deal might also build a broader case of why diplomacy is crucial — a potential win for Biden in advance of the midterms, especially if the deal brings down energy prices.</p> <p>But beyond the political and technical challenges in Washington, or the diplomatic nuances in Vienna, the biggest ongoing question is whether Iranians would trust Americans to fulfill their side of the agreement. That Trump pulled out of the deal has damaged America’s standing. “All of these agreements, hinge on the credibility of our word and the credibility of our commitment,” said Rupal Mehta, a political scientist at the University of Nebraska Lincoln.</p> <p>For all of the incentives that Iran has to rejoin the deal, there are risks of another US president’s withdrawal. “If I was sitting in Tehran, watching polarized American politics and seeing how popular Trump remains, I would be very worried about signing back onto a deal only to go through this entire exercise once again,” said Hashemi.</p> <br /> <br /> source <a href="https://www.vox.com/23002229/return-iran-nuclear-deal-vienna-explained">https://www.vox.com/23002229/return-iran-nuclear-deal-vienna-explained</a>

vox What’s the deal with the Iran nuclear deal?

A nuclear deal with Iran was Barack Obama’s biggest diplomatic achievement, and its annulment was arguably Donald Trump’s biggest foreign po...

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What immunocompromised people need to know right now

<div><img class="ff-og-image-inserted" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/TbL26Zd3SbF5SmMgu22g6eTYC1s=/0x480:6569x3919/fit-in/1200x630/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23366773/1237873890.jpg" /></div> <p>Fredrick Wilson, a spine doctor at the Cleveland Clinic, was asleep at home in June 2020 when he had a massive heart attack that destroyed more than three-quarters of his heart tissue. He was lucky to survive the ambulance ride to the hospital.</p> <p>Until then, Wilson, now 66, had been a healthy cyclist who took no prescription drugs. But after the attack, he needed a heart transplant, and with it, 33 pills to swallow a day, including powerful immunosuppressants to prevent his immune system from attacking his transplanted heart. These drugs help keep his new heart pumping, but they also make it harder for his body to fight off infections. They put him at high risk for both catching Covid-19 and having severe outcomes from the infection.</p> <p>As <a href="https://www.vox.com/2022/3/2/22950635/covid-pandemic-over-future">Covid-19 stutters into endemicity</a>, the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/recs/grade/covid-19-immunocompromised-etr.html">more than 7 million</a> Americans with weakened immune systems, including Wilson, are left making hard choices that others don’t face. He feels conflicted: He misses taking care of his longtime patients and teaching junior colleagues his craft. But he’s also afraid to die from Covid-19 after such a miraculous survival.</p> <p>“Every time I go to the office, I’m going to feel some risk involved, and I’m not really that comfortable with it,” he said. But, he added, “I’m just not ready to stop seeing patients just yet.”</p> <p>Even for a doctor, making decisions as an immunocompromised person is difficult — especially now. There’s no obvious guidebook for this group, in part because immunocompromised states are almost as diverse as the individuals who cope with them. While the risks associated with these conditions are not uniform, many immunocompromised people are now making decisions under a <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2022/02/covid-pandemic-immunocompromised-risk-vaccines/622094/">blanket of fear</a>.</p> <p>Helping people with weakened immune systems navigate this stage of the pandemic means recognizing that the group contains a large spectrum of risk — but even those at more risk now have tools that allow them to be proactive about their safety, and both individual and collective actions can help protect them.</p> <h3>There’s a wide spectrum of risk among immunocompromised people</h3> <p>It’s really hard to assess the exact risk an immunocompromised person faces. That’s partly because “immunocompromised” is a catch-all term for a complex group of conditions. The immune system consists of many interrelated parts, and weaknesses in different components of it can lead to different levels of risk.</p> <p>“It’s not like there is a clear category of ‘you’re immune compromised’ and ‘you’re not at all’ — there’s a gradient,” said Dimitri Drekonja, an infectious disease doctor at the University of Minnesota.</p> <p>Immune systems can be weakened in different ways — via disease, such as advanced or untreated HIV; by treatments for certain medical conditions, such as medications used to treat rheumatoid arthritis, multiple sclerosis, and some cancers; or by medications that target normal immune systems in transplant patients, to <a href="https://www.webmd.com/a-to-z-guides/organ-transplant-after-the-transplant">prevent them from attacking new organs</a>, or immune system components, such as in stem cell transplants.</p> <p>When it comes to Covid-19, the important question for immunocompromised people is whether their immune system’s specific vulnerability places them at higher risk for either infection with or severe disease due to the coronavirus.</p> <p>Immunocompromised people, overall, are thought to be at particular risk for Covid-19 because the SARS-CoV-2 virus is so new, said Christine Koval, who leads the transplant infectious disease team at the Cleveland Clinic. They’re also at relatively higher risk for severe outcomes from common cold and flu viruses, but their immune systems have encountered these viruses before. SARS-CoV-2 is too new for their immune systems to offer much protection against it.</p> <p>The data is mixed on which immunocompromised people face the greatest danger when it comes to Covid-19, in large part because many in this group are older or have other medical conditions that raise the risk of severe disease.</p> <p>Experts generally agree <a href="https://www.uptodate.com/contents/covid-19-considerations-in-patients-with-cancer?search=covid%20immunocompromised&source=search_result&selectedTitle=1~150&usage_type=default&display_rank=1#H346374680">Covid-19 risk is elevated</a> for people with cancers of the blood or immune systems (like leukemia, lymphoma, and multiple myeloma), lung cancer, advanced or progressive cancer, recent stem cell transplants, and advanced or untreated HIV. Those actively receiving chemotherapy that reduces bone marrow activity and people with <a href="https://primaryimmune.org/news/doctors-provide-updates-covid-19-and-pi">some primary immunodeficiencies</a> are also in the highest-risk category.</p> <p>The CDC’s <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations/immuno.html#mod">“moderately to severely immunocompromised”</a> designation, created largely for the purposes of allocating Covid-19 vaccines, includes these high-risk categories. But it also includes more ambiguous ones, including people taking other immunosuppressive medicines and those who have received organ transplants, conditions whose risk scientists <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32766815/">don’t</a> <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34117116/">understand</a> as well.</p> <p>Researchers have not yet developed a unifying theory to explain why certain immunocompromised states raise the risk from Covid-19, but many have proposed an important role for B cells. These immune cells are responsible for producing the antibodies key to the immune system’s sentinel function, which identifies invading germs and signals the need for a counterattack. That makes them critical to the body’s defenses against new pathogens; because people taking medicines that dampen these cells’ activity have a <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8846615/">less robust vaccine response</a> and <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8150936/#:~:text=Results%3A,range%20of%20underlying%20disease%20states.">higher risk for severe infection or death</a> when it comes to Covid-19, scientists think there is a relationship between B cell function and risk.</p> <p>When a medical condition or treatment weakens the entire immune system, it also weakens B cells; that could explain why people with blood cancers, stem cell transplants, and advanced HIV are at higher risk.</p> <p>However, B cell dysfunction doesn’t explain all of the risk immunocompromised people face, said David Hafler, a neurologist and immunobiologist at the Yale School of Medicine. In some people with weakened B cells (for example, those who take the prescription medication rituximab) other parts of the immune system seem able to pick up the slack — but not in everyone.</p> <p>Ultimately, that makes it hard to sort individuals definitively into risk categories.</p> <p>Hafler attributes some of this variability to the “immune lottery” — that is, the role of genetics in determining individual strengths and vulnerabilities in each person’s defenses. “Everyone has a different immune system,” he said, which makes it hard to ascertain why some people have severe Covid-19 infections while others do not, without understanding underlying genetic differences. (It is possible to test for the presence and level of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the blood, which are products of the immune system’s defense against the virus. But these tests don’t tell you how protected you are — or are not — from an infection.)</p> <p>Megan Ryan, an advocate for people with primary immunodeficiencies, who herself has common variable immunodeficiency, said the individually variable nature of immunocompromised states makes it particularly important that higher-risk people get their information from health care providers who know them — not from the public square. “It is a confusing time,” she said, “because there’s a lot of people who are either experts or self-proclaimed experts — there’s just a lot of voices in the system.” She recommended seeking medical advice from the health care team that knows you best “rather than crowdsourcing an answer,” she said.</p> <p>That’s also the best advice for people concerned they have an undiagnosed immune system problem: Get evaluated by a health care provider — ideally, one who knows you well.</p> <h3>What immunocompromised people and their communities can do</h3> <p>While immunocompromised people should address questions about individual risk and recommendations with their health care providers, they should also be aware of the tools available to protect them from Covid-19’s worst outcomes.</p> <p><strong>1) Vaccines and masks:</strong> Vaccination remains a key component of prevention. For people who initially received mRNA vaccines, the CDC now <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations/immuno.html?s_cid=10483:immunocompromised%20covid%20vaccine:sem.ga:p:RG:GM:gen:PTN:FY21">recommends</a> a total of four doses for immunocompromised people, with the option of a fifth dose. For those who initially received Johnson and Johnson vaccines, the recommendation is for a total of three doses (preferably including mRNA doses), with the option of a fourth. <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8846615/">Immunocompromised people</a> are somewhat less protected by vaccines than people with normal immune systems, but the protection isn’t zero.</p> <p>“Except in the most extreme circumstances, they do have some protection if they’ve followed the recommendations for the vaccinations,” Koval said.</p> <p>Wearing a properly fitted N95 mask also provides <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2110117118">excellent</a> <a href="https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/10/commentary-what-can-masks-do-part-1-science-behind-covid-19-protection">protection</a> during casual contact with others, even when they are unmasked. Koval said household members of immunocompromised people should also mask up in public places to avoid transmitting the virus when back at home.</p> <p><strong>2) Antibody treatments:</strong> A long-acting preventive antibody formulation called Evusheld should offer some hope to immunocompromised people hoping for a higher degree of protection. Early data showed this therapy reduced the risk of symptomatic infection in unvaccinated high-risk adults (including but not limited to immunocompromised people) by <a href="https://www.fda.gov/media/154701/download">77 percent</a>, and that the protective effect may last long enough to allow recipients six months between doses.</p> <p>But due to a short supply and confusion among health care providers about who should receive the drug, many immunocompromised people who want the drug have been <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/06/us/politics/evusheld-covid-treatment.html">unable to get it</a>. Currently, the cost of this therapy itself is <a href="https://www.phe.gov/emergency/events/COVID19/therapeutics/Pages/mAb-cost-and-coverage-faqs.aspx">covered by the federal government</a>, although the cost of infusing it varies by insurance plan. If Congress does not pass the latest, condensed version of a <a href="https://www.vox.com/coronavirus-covid19/23009783/covid-19-relief-funding-bill-senate-vaccines">Covid-19 relief bill</a>, Evusheld may become harder to <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/03/15/fact-sheet-consequences-of-lack-of-funding-for-efforts-to-combat-covid-19-if-congress-does-not-act/">access</a> in the future.</p> <p><strong>3) Oral antivirals:</strong> If they do get infected, immunocompromised people may also benefit from treatment with <a href="https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-authorizes-first-oral-antiviral-treatment-covid-19">Paxlovid</a>, an oral antiviral medication people take early on during Covid-19 infections to prevent more severe illness. However, this medication cannot be taken with some other medicines commonly prescribed to treat high blood pressure and high cholesterol, so it will be off-limits to some immunocompromised people.</p> <p><strong>4) Services to connect patients with medications:</strong> A new <a href="https://covid-19-therapeutics-locator-dhhs.hub.arcgis.com/">Covid-19 therapeutics locator</a> created by the federal government aims to help health care providers more effectively link treatments with patients who stand to benefit most from their protective effects.</p> <p>Immunocompromised people can also use another new federal website geared toward patients to identify <a href="https://covid-19-test-to-treat-locator-dhhs.hub.arcgis.com/">the nearest “test-to-treat” location</a>, where people can be tested for Covid-19 and, if positive, get treated with either Paxlovid or molnupiravir, another antiviral medication that’s less effective than Paxlovid but doesn’t interact with other medications.</p> <p><strong>5) Non-immunocompromised people can be thoughtful, and policies can be proactive:</strong> Although mask mandates are no longer in effect in most of the US, an accommodating attitude from the general public — and policies that encourage a culture of consideration in places where there’s no way to remain masked around others — can help maximize safety for immunocompromised people.</p> <p>Workplace lunchtimes are challenging for both adults and kids, said Drekonja: “I have a private office where I can go eat lunch, but many people don’t — they have a break room,” he said, or in the case of school children, a cafeteria. “They don’t get a magic forcefield for the 20 minutes that they’re eating — what do they do?” he said.</p> <p>There are no easy answers on how to minimize exposure for immunocompromised people in these situations, especially in places where it’s too cold to be outside for half the year. However, improving ventilation and air filtration and maximizing vaccination rates and masking among those sharing air space with high-risk people in these scenarios would help.</p> <p>Of course, the best way to reduce the risk Covid-19 poses to immunocompromised people is to reduce transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus altogether. The more we collectively take steps to avoid large waves of transmission going forward, the faster we lower the risk for everyone.</p> <h3>Assessing your risk tolerance and personal priorities might ease decision-making</h3> <p>At this stage of the pandemic, immunocompromised people have several tools to protect themselves from Covid-19. Still, some decisions remain difficult to think through. There is no way to know the absolute risk of any situation, and there is no way to do away with risk entirely. The uncertainty can feel unsettling and exhausting.</p> <p>People who are able to balance caution and uncertainty with joy and meaningful activity are having an easier time right now. Personal preferences and priorities help determine how much these two years have felt like a loss, said Drekonja: If you’re someone who was looking forward to a retirement full of nights at the opera and dinners out, it has been brutal — but if you’re a homebody who just wants to read and go for walks outside, “It’s not a big deal,” he said. “Part of it is, what’s your baseline?”</p> <p>Many people “get this message that they’re at such high risk for death that they can’t really function normally in the world,” said Koval. But she doesn’t believe that’s realistic.</p> <p>“It is uncomfortable to live in these muddy situations, particularly when we’re two years in and the type of data that we have is just not that helpful for patients, and for us to help them make informed decisions,” Koval said. “I’m hoping it gets better.”</p> <p>Fredrick Wilson, the doctor who suffered the heart attack, also hopes it gets better — ideally, in time to let him do just a little more of his life’s work before retiring. He would be reassured by proof that a combination of vaccines and antivirals would be 100 percent effective at preventing coronavirus deaths, but that proof does not yet exist, and it’s unclear if it ever will. Meanwhile, he has stayed up to date on his booster shots, and recently received a dose of Evusheld. He expects to start seeing patients again in early May.</p> <p>Wilson recalls his earliest days of practice, when gaps in knowledge about the cause of AIDS made many clinicians afraid to care for patients. That uncertainty wasn’t all that different from the way the Covid-19 landscape feels right now, he said: “We don’t know all the answers yet — and it’s just going to take some time.”</p> <p><strong>Clarification, 11:30 am ET, April 6, 2022</strong>: This story was updated to clarify additional dose recommendations for immunocompromised people.</p> <br /> <br /> source <a href="https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/23003195/immunocompromised-immunosuppressed-covid-pandemic">https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/23003195/immunocompromised-immunosuppressed-covid-pandemic</a>

vox What immunocompromised people need to know right now

Fredrick Wilson, a spine doctor at the Cleveland Clinic, was asleep at home in June 2020 when he had a massive heart attack that destroyed ...

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Jerrod Carmichael’s new comedy special is everything Louis C.K.’s Sincerely is not

<div><img class="ff-og-image-inserted" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/5FW8y5ysng2kxs4BfvE8V5hmqAo=/0x0:1920x1005/fit-in/1200x630/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23369721/jerrod_carmichael_rothaniel_ka_1920_0.jpeg" /></div> <p>Jerrod Carmichael’s new HBO special <em>Rothaniel</em>, directed by Bo Burnham and filmed on a recent wintry night at the Blue Note Jazz Club in New York, is a quiet comedy revelation. Carmichael first delves into the skeletons in his family’s closet (in short, prolific cheating from the men in his family), then reveals his own big secret: He’s gay. He takes viewers through a gentle coming-out narrative, interspersed with occasional questions and reassurances from the audience.</p> <p>“I’m trying to be very honest because my whole life was shrouded in secrets,” Carmichael says at the end of the evening, “and I figured the only route I hadn’t tried was the truth.”</p> <p>Carmichael’s approach to his coming-out is to turn his comedy stage into a place of healing and acceptance, in which the audience becomes his confessors. If Hannah Gadsby’s 2018 special <a href="https://www.vox.com/culture/2018/7/5/17527478/hannah-gadsby-nanette-comedy"><em>Nanette</em></a> has pushed comedians to balance <a href="https://www.vox.com/culture/22922007/comedy-isnt-funny-moral-joe-rogan-whitney-cummings-moses-storm-che-diaz">serious themes with the need to make people laugh</a>, <em>Rothaniel</em> is a new mediated space altogether — half comedy, half interactive therapy session. The jazz club setting lends an even more intensely improvisational feeling to Carmichael’s monologuing. It’s comedy as melisma, maybe, complete with stammers, pauses, and his admission that he’s still working some things out — both the comedy bits and the emotional bits.</p> <p>The name of the special refers to a layered metaphor for that process — it’s the given name he’s tried to erase for years but has finally accepted as a messy part of himself. It’s perhaps lighter on laughs than Carmichael’s previous specials, but his particular, unhurried power has always come from a lack of neuroses about audience reaction, coupled with a willingness to deliver what he sincerely has to give. Here, he performs the mental and emotional toll of trying to repress something so huge until it comes spilling out — until honesty is the only thing you have left.</p> <p>Two days after <em>Rothaniel</em>’s release, <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-news/louis-c-k-grammys-sexual-misconduct-1331976/">Louis C.K. won a Grammy</a> for Best Comedy Album, for <em>Sincerely, Louis CK</em>, filmed in Washington, DC, in March 2020 and released to fans on his personal website a month later. The Grammy win comes four and a half years after <a href="https://www.vox.com/culture/2017/11/9/16629400/louis-ck-allegations-masturbation">multiple women in comedy made allegations</a> of sexual misconduct against C.K., causing him to issue a demonstrative apology in which he vowed to “step back and take a long time to listen.”</p> <p>The title of C.K.’s special might lead you to believe that it, like <em>Rothaniel</em>, contains a key to its contents — that C.K. is perhaps ready to level with audiences about his conduct and open up about what’s changed since the scandal. Instead, he seems to armor himself against a world he’s decided to battle. In conversation with <em>Rothaniel</em>, <em>Sincerely</em> offers us a striking glimpse of how “confessional” comedy means very different things depending on who’s doing the confessing.</p> <p>The hugely delayed nature of the Grammys, delayed even more thanks to Covid-19, means watching <em>Sincerely</em> now, two years after its release, feels like an anachronism: C.K.’s performance was just days prior to the beginning of the 2020 lockdown, for an audience that perhaps understood the concept of an enclosed confessional space very differently than Carmichael’s intimate nightclub audience did two years later. The contrast between the two shows couldn’t be more striking: Carmichael softly working through his coming-out process to a small venue of often utterly silent listeners; C.K. greeting a crowd of 1,500 people who gleefully applaud his every dictum on pedophilia, disability, gay sex, and his sexual misconduct.</p> <p>Throughout his decades of standup, and especially during the run of his <a href="https://www.vox.com/culture/2019/12/17/20997966/louie-best-tv-shows-2010s-louis-ck-allegations-fx">once-influential TV show, <em>Louis</em></a>, C.K. favored material that tended toward observational empathy, with self-deprecation always tempered by a basic layer of goodness. Jokes about dating, for instance, looked honestly at <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yRzs7v0do_Q">women’s reasonable fear of men</a>; jokes about <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUBtKNzoKZ4">plane wifi</a> were fundamentally about how good we all have it. C.K. could be honest about his worst impulses because they were always tempered by his, and humanity’s, best.</p> <p>Following his disgrace, numerous <a href="https://slate.com/culture/2020/04/louis-ck-new-stand-up-special-sincerely-review.html">critics</a> <a href="https://www.vox.com/culture/2019/12/17/20997966/louie-best-tv-shows-2010s-louis-ck-allegations-fx">discussed</a> how C.K. had built up a level of trust that allowed his audience to accept his darker material as part of the struggle of a man who shared their basic sense of morality. C.K. then destroyed that trust, at least for some, when he <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/10/arts/television/louis-ck-statement.html">admitted</a> to years of masturbating openly in front of many women in comedy. C.K. did this without their enthusiastic consent (or, in at least some cases, <a href="https://slate.com/human-interest/2017/11/louis-c-k-s-masturbation-statement-unnervingly-misunderstands-the-concept-of-consent.html">without any apparent consent</a>), nor any regard to the huge power imbalance between them. After at least one incident, his manager <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/09/arts/television/louis-ck-sexual-misconduct.html">allegedly attempted to silence</a> some of the women.</p> <p>Once the less-than-empathetic nature of his in-person interactions was revealed, it seemed that his performance of empathy was over too. Instead, something uglier snuck in: Nine months after his promise to listen, he <a href="https://www.vox.com/culture/2018/8/28/17790532/louis-ck-scandal-comeback-comedy-cellar-sexual-misconduct">resumed performing</a>, with his comedy taking a <a href="https://www.vox.com/2019/1/9/18172273/louis-ck-comeback-parkland-aziz-ansari-metoo">pronounced turn toward the reactionary</a>. During <a href="https://www.vox.com/2019/1/9/18172273/louis-ck-comeback-parkland-aziz-ansari-metoo">leaked club appearances</a> from late 2018, he mocked Parkland survivors, nonbinary teens, and the loss of the “r” word. (That last one made it into the Grammy-winning special.)</p> <p><em>Sincerely</em> seems to be primarily about insincerity — his, ours, and how foolish we’d have to be to expect anything else. He talks about wishing he could be meaner. He calls his audiences hypocrites for pretending to be morally horrified by some tasteless jokes but not others. He says he hates New York, where he lived from <a href="https://www.6sqft.com/comedian-louis-c-k-buys-third-unit-in-west-village-brownstone/">at least 2006</a> until the implosion of his career. He makes fun of Orthodox Jews, Islam, and Japanese restaurant workers; he fantasizes about crushing the illusions of modest shopkeepers. Where once he might have pulled out a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7x598orzdU0">heartwarming humanist kicker</a>, <em>Sincerity</em> seems to be about establishing C.K., and his audience’s, <em>lack</em> of empathy as the default. There’s no longer a collective wish for something higher. There seems to be nothing higher left to aim for.</p> <p>At one point during the special, C.K. wonders if gay people might not prefer the days when gay sexuality was more of a taboo. Is there not, somehow, an illicit thrill in the deviance of queerness? he wonders — or if you want to look at it through another lens, from knowing people think you’re less human as a result of your sexual orientation? As a joke in isolation, it’s thoroughly whatever. But taken in the context of <em>Sincerity</em> as a whole, it’s a dick joke masquerading as an indictment, as a suggestion that queerness is a clever joke being played on the rest of us and that queer people are somehow in on it. For Louis C.K., sincerity now involves reconfiguring the world as complicit in his dishonesty — and ultimately as complicit in his misconduct.</p> <p>“You don’t want to know ... who your real friends are,” C.K. says early in the special. “It’s never who you want it to be.” The obvious probing point about why some of C.K.’s better friends left him, and what kind of atonement might be necessary to restore their esteem, goes unmade.</p> <p>Meanwhile, in Carmichael’s soliloquy, one of his closest friends tells him he felt “tricked” into having a gay best friend — because despite C.K.’s best efforts, the world he’s tried to reframe still threatens the most vulnerable people in it. Carmichael’s reckoning with his queerness — his family’s mixed reactions, the distance he feels from his mother, his internalized homophobia and fear, and the idea that secrecy and shame can become generational trauma — makes that abundantly clear.</p> <p>While both men are angry, stinging from private betrayals, Carmichael doesn’t externalize his discomfort in the same way. Perhaps that’s because much of this is new and raw, but perhaps it’s also because externalized anger is costlier, riskier for Black, queer men in America than it is for the average disgruntled white guy.</p> <p>Carmichael’s comedic honesty is born, in other words, from the kind of desperate need for freedom and self-expression that C.K.’s revamped comedy now seems to denigrate. Having lost the favor of his original audience but still amassing a huge amount of patronage, wealth, and power, C.K. chose to rewrite the world that disowned him rather than rewrite himself. Had he truly made good on his promise to “step back and take a long time to listen,” it’s hard to fathom him re-emerging with a worldview this cynical. But a byproduct of his weak analysis is that it makes a truly sincere inner reckoning like Carmichael’s seem that much more profound in comparison.</p> <p>C.K.’s Grammy win — not just on its face but for this particular, aggrieved album — underscores the entertainment industry’s unwillingness to <a href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/k789vn/metoo-group-times-up-failed-sexual-assault-survivors">internalize</a> many of the lessons of Me Too. C.K.’s moment of “realness,” when he finally talks about his behavior near the end of his special, stays unsettlingly superficial, framing his behavior as an unfortunate miscommunication about a weird sexual kink.</p> <p>He segues into this from his “maybe gay people wish they were still taboo” bit — that fantasy of illicit kink was merely projection, of course. His ability to look honestly at human relationships, to see them through anything but his own lens, is shot. He gets a trophy anyway, sealing his absolute privilege over the women who were brave enough to name what he did. For those women, seeing their stories reappropriated by the man who assaulted them, and then stamped with approval by the Recording Academy, no less, must be the ultimate confirmation that nothing really changes.</p> <p>His win suggests that men of great privilege, like C.K., can afford to be disingenuous about what confessional comedy really is. C.K.’s moment of so-called honesty costs him nothing. He risks nothing, and he learns nothing. <em>Rothaniel</em>, on the other hand, suggests that perhaps there’s a connection between the kind of comic who makes themselves vulnerable and open to profound interpersonal connection through their chosen medium and the kind of life experience that pushes a person toward a need for safety and acceptance in a society that marginalizes them. It suggests that there’s something higher to be gained.</p> <p>C.K. might think he still needs safety and acceptance from the comedy community, but the type of worldview he evinces these days makes comedy a little bit less safe for the rest of us. The Academy might be eager to welcome C.K. back into the fold, but that just underscores the pernicious subtext of <em>Sincerely</em>: The sincerest thing about it may be its reflection of a societal structure that rewards unkindness, inequality, and denial.</p> <p>That might be true, but <em>Rothaniel</em> shows us that those at society’s edges still seek truth, compassion, and healing, turning to increasingly unconventional spaces as more traditional avenues for community and acceptance remain closed. Carmichael finds that healing onstage on a snowy night at the Blue Note, performing comedy as something like a new, hybrid form of slow jazz improv. That achievement, ultimately, feels far more significant to comedy than the miserable laughs of <em>Sincerely</em>. One may have won a Grammy; the other feels like a far more meaningful reward.</p> <br /> <br /> source <a href="https://www.vox.com/culture/23009533/louis-ck-grammy-win-sincerely-jerrod-carmichael-rothaniel">https://www.vox.com/culture/23009533/louis-ck-grammy-win-sincerely-jerrod-carmichael-rothaniel</a>

vox Jerrod Carmichael’s new comedy special is everything Louis C.K.’s Sincerely is not

Jerrod Carmichael’s new HBO special Rothaniel , directed by Bo Burnham and filmed on a recent wintry night at the Blue Note Jazz Club in Ne...

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The Elites Are Turning Against Biden – Find Out What’s Next

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The Oklahoma legislature’s near-total ban on abortion, explained

<div><img class="ff-og-image-inserted" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/3XAmSbW04ysJrSeRw38kVMtuQ78=/0x0:3000x1571/fit-in/1200x630/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23369988/1239447098.jpg" /></div> <p>The Republican-led Oklahoma state House has passed a <a href="http://webserver1.lsb.state.ok.us/cf_pdf/2021-22%20ENGR/SB/SB612%20ENGR.PDF">near-total ban on abortion</a> except in cases where the pregnant person’s life is endangered.</p> <p>Under the bill, anyone who performs an abortion would face up to 10 years in prison and up to $100,000 in fines. The bill, first passed by the Oklahoma Senate last year, was suddenly revived Tuesday without explanation from Republican lawmakers.</p> <p>It will now head to Republican Gov. Kevin Stitt, who has committed to <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/571720-oklahoma-gov-stitt-holds-ceremonial-signing-for-9-abortion-bills/">signing any anti-abortion legislation</a> that comes across his desk and has previously described himself as America’s “<a href="https://www.koco.com/article/proud-to-be-called-the-most-pro-life-governor-gov-stitt-signs-another-abortion-related-bill/36267627">most pro-life governor</a>.”</p> <p>The ban would go into effect 90 days after the state legislature adjourns at the end of May unless courts intervene. Reproductive rights groups are expected to file legal challenges to the ban, which they believe is unconstitutional. The US Supreme Court’s 1973 decision in <em>Roe v. Wade</em> recognized a pregnant person’s fundamental right to seek an abortion, but found that states could still impose restrictions on the procedure in the service of protecting the pregnant person’s health and the potential life of a fetus once it can survive outside the womb.</p> <p>These legal challenges might be successful given that the bill is similar to other Oklahoma laws recently <a href="https://reproductiverights.org/oklahoma-supreme-court-blocks-new-abortion-restrictions/">struck down</a> by the state supreme court, including laws that restrict medication abortion, suspend the licenses of physicians who provide abortions, and ban abortion as early as six weeks into pregnancy. But if the US Supreme Court were to overturn <em>Roe v. Wade</em>, <a href="https://www.vox.com/2021/12/1/22811837/supreme-court-roe-wade-abortion-doomed-jackson-womens-health-dobbs-barrett-kavanaugh-roberts">as it is widely expected to</a>, the new ban could survive.</p> <p>“With barely any notice, the Oklahoma Legislature resurrected a bill that is patently unconstitutional and flies in the face of the Oklahoma Supreme Court’s clear precedent,” Rabia Muqaddam, senior staff attorney at the Center for Reproductive Rights, said in a statement. “The Oklahoma Supreme Court has found time and time again that the state’s attempts to restrict abortion are unconstitutional, as this total abortion ban clearly is.”</p> <p>The bill’s passage came as a surprise to abortion rights advocates in the state, who saw it as a political statement in response to their “Bans Off Oklahoma” rally at the state capitol on Tuesday. The measure was put on the agenda on Tuesday, fairly late in the legislative session, and passed that same day with little time for debate.</p> <p>“This bill kind of came out of nowhere,” said Tamya Cox-Touré, the executive director of the American Civil Liberties Union of Oklahoma. “This was a direct reflection of the fact that 350 people gathered to demand that abortion access is protected. And this was their retaliation.”</p> <p>For the few remaining abortion providers in Oklahoma, the bill would be catastrophic. There are just four such facilities across the entire state, which have seen soaring demand since last September, when neighboring Texas enacted a ban on abortions after six weeks of pregnancy.</p> <p>Trust Women — which operates a clinic in Oklahoma City that provides medication and surgical abortions up to the current legal limit of 21.6 weeks — has seen a 2,500 percent increase in patients. Even though the clinic has doubled the number of days of the week that it’s open from two to four, patients still may have to wait two to four weeks for an abortion, sometimes forcing them to travel to other states if that puts them over the time period within which it’s legal to have an abortion in Oklahoma.</p> <p>“It’s been nonstop. We are now seeing mostly out-of-state patients,” said Myfy Jensen-Fellows, Trust Women’s advocacy director. “This impacts the entire region.”</p> <p>It’s not the last anti-abortion measure being considered in this session of the Oklahoma legislature. The state senate has already <a href="https://kfor.com/news/oklahoma-legislature/oklahoma-senate-passes-bill-mirroring-texas-heartbeat-act/">passed</a> the so-called Oklahoma Heartbeat Act, which is a copycat of a Texas ban allowing any private individual to sue doctors who perform abortions after fetal cardiac activity can be detected (typically about six weeks into term) except in the case of a medical emergency. The state House will debate that bill in committee on Wednesday.</p> <br /> <br /> source <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/23012348/oklahoma-abortion-bill-ban">https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/23012348/oklahoma-abortion-bill-ban</a>

vox The Oklahoma legislature’s near-total ban on abortion, explained

The Republican-led Oklahoma state House has passed a near-total ban on abortion except in cases where the pregnant person’s life is endang...

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