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The Supreme Court will hear a big case about whether religion is a license to discriminate

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<p>In the past few years, the Supreme Court danced around the question of whether religious conservatives have a constitutional right to violate anti-discrimination laws — and specifically laws prohibiting discrimination against LGBTQ people.</p>
<p>Now, it appears ready to come out and say that at least some businesses have a constitutional right to discriminate.</p>
<p>On Tuesday, the Court announced that it will hear <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/303-creative-llc-v-elenis/"><em>303 Creative v. Elenis</em></a>, a case that is likely to give at least some businesses a right to openly refuse services to LGBTQ customers.</p>
<p>This question first arose in <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/17pdf/16-111_j4el.pdf"><em>Masterpiece Cakeshop v. Colorado Civil Rights Commission</em></a> (2018), where the Supreme Court ruled in favor of a baker who refused to bake a wedding cake for a same-sex couple. Yet, while <em>Masterpiece Cakeshop</em> was a victory for the religious right, it turned out to be a <a href="https://archive.thinkprogress.org/the-supreme-courts-opinion-in-the-anti-gay-baker-case-is-a-stupid-waste-of-time-punt-d1b63eeb195f/">very narrow one</a>. The Court held that states could still enforce bans on anti-LGBTQ discrimination, but that state officials had to be careful not to disparage the religious beliefs of people who use those beliefs to justify discrimination.</p>
<p>Then, in <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/20pdf/19-123_g3bi.pdf"><em>Fulton v. City of Philadelphia</em></a> (2021), the Court handed down a similar nothingburger opinion, ruling in favor of a government contractor that refused to work with same-sex couples seeking to foster a child — but on <a href="https://www.vox.com/2021/6/17/22538645/supreme-court-fulton-philadelphia-lgbtq-catholic-social-services-foster-care-john-roberts-religion">exceedingly narrow grounds</a>.</p>
<p><em>303 Creative</em> presents many of the same questions at issue in <em>Masterpiece Cakeshop</em> and <em>Fulton</em>. It involves a web design company owned by a woman named Lorie Smith, who <a href="https://casetext.com/case/303-creative-llc-v-elenis-3">refuses to create websites celebrating same-sex weddings</a>. She claims that “doing that would compromise my Christian witness and tell a story about marriage that contradicts God’s true story of marriage.”</p>
<p>Thus far, Smith has not sold her services to anyone who wants a wedding-related website, because she fears violating Colorado’s law prohibiting discrimination against LGBTQ people. She wants the Supreme Court to give her license to design wedding websites for opposite-sex couples — and only for opposite-sex couples.</p>
<p>In the likely event that Smith prevails before this <a href="https://www.vox.com/22889417/supreme-court-religious-liberty-christian-right-revolution-amy-coney-barrett">very conservative Court</a>, <em>303 Creative</em> could offer another narrow victory to religious conservatives. Or it could wind up dismantling what remains of a <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/supremecourt/text/494/872">seminal 1990 precedent</a> holding that religious individuals typically need to follow the same laws as everyone else. At the very least, <em>303 Creative</em> could give people in creative professions a sweeping new right to discriminate.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/supremecourt/text/494/872#writing-USSC_CR_0494_0872_ZO"><em>Employment Division v. Smith</em></a> (1990), the Supreme Court held that people who object to a law on religious grounds must still obey that law, unless it imposes obligations on religious people that don’t apply to secular individuals. In <em>Smith</em>’s words, religious objectors must still follow a “valid and neutral law of general applicability.” (A federal statute <a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/2/25/21150692/supreme-court-religion-discrimination-lgbtq-foster-fulton-philadelphia-first-amendment">applies a stricter rule to federal laws that burden religion</a>, but this rule <a href="https://scholar.google.com/scholar_case?case=8746804851760570747&hl=en&as_sdt=6&as_vis=1&oi=scholarr">does not apply to state laws that burden people of faith</a>.)</p>
<p>In other words, a law that prohibits all businesses, regardless of whether their owners are secular or religious, from discriminating against LGBTQ customers complies with <em>Smith</em>. But a law that imposes obligations on religious institutions, but not secular businesses, would likely be found unconstitutional.</p>
<p>Shortly after Justice Amy Coney Barrett’s confirmation gave Republicans a supermajority on the Supreme Court, however, the Court’s new majority <a href="https://www.vox.com/2021/4/12/22379689/supreme-court-amy-coney-barrett-religion-california-tandon-newsom-first-amendment">started dismantling <em>Smith</em></a> by redefining what constitutes a “neutral law of general applicability.” As a 5-4 Court held in <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/20pdf/20a151_4g15.pdf"><em>Tandon v. Newsom</em></a> (2021), “government regulations are not neutral and generally applicable . . . whenever they treat any comparable secular activity more favorably than religious exercise.”</p>
<p>The Court, moreover, defined the term “any comparable secular activity” quite expansively. Suppose that, at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, a state placed restrictions on church attendance that it didn’t apply to grocery stores. Under <em>Tandon</em>, the restrictions on churches would be illegal, even though people are much more likely to catch Covid at a highly attended religious service than at a supermarket.</p>
<p>Among other things, <a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/12/2/21726876/supreme-court-religious-liberty-revolutionary-roman-catholic-diocese-cuomo-amy-coney-barrett">people don’t typically gather together for hours in a grocery store</a>, or socialize in a supermarket, or sing hymns while they are buying food. But the Court did not care about these distinctions in <em>Tandon</em>, deeming attending religious services and buying groceries to be “comparable” activities.</p>
<p>In any event, the plaintiffs in <em>303 Creative</em> argue that Colorado’s anti-discrimination law is not neutral or generally applicable because it <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/21/21-476/193619/20210924115918275_USSC%20Petition%20for%20Writ%20of%20Certiorari.pdf">only applies to certain forms of discrimination</a>. Among other things, the law permits gender discrimination when such discrimination “has a bona fide relationship” to the services provided by that business. So a women-only gym is allowed to remain a women-only gym.</p>
<p>To be clear, the Court’s previous cases express no view on whether states <em>should</em> permit businesses to engage in gender discrimination. They merely leave the question of whether to permit businesses like single-sex gyms up to state lawmakers. States have historically been allowed to decide which forms of discrimination they wish to prohibit and which ones they wish to permit, and there is a great deal of variation among state anti-discrimination laws.</p>
<p>According to the Human Rights Campaign, for example, about a dozen states have <a href="https://www.hrc.org/resources/state-equality-index">no laws whatsoever prohibiting LGBTQ discrimination</a>, while other states have expansive protections.</p>
<p>In <em>Tandon</em> and <a href="https://www.vox.com/22889417/supreme-court-religious-liberty-christian-right-revolution-amy-coney-barrett">similar cases</a>, however, the Court signaled that any law that imposes restrictions on religious objectors is suspect if it provides any exemptions for secular activity. So it’s unlikely that this Court will allow Colorado to apply its anti-discrimination law to religious objectors, because the law does contain an exception for secular businesses such as single-sex gyms.</p>
<p><em>303</em> <em>Creative</em> also asks just how important preventing anti-LGBTQ discrimination is, in the eyes of the justices.</p>
<p>The lower appeals court that heard <em>303 Creative</em> largely <a href="https://casetext.com/case/303-creative-llc-v-elenis-3">approached it as a free speech case</a>. Lorie Smith is engaged in an inherently creative activity, making custom websites for her customers, and the Colorado law would make her design websites that promote a message she disagrees with — a message supporting a same-sex wedding. That’s the sort of compelled speech that the First Amendment typically forbids.</p>
<p>Yet the lower court ruled against Smith, pointing to a test known as “<a href="https://www.vox.com/2019/11/8/20952728/democrats-virginia-ruth-bader-ginsburg-equal-rights-amendment">strict scrutiny</a>.”</p>
<p>As a general rule, there are few absolutes under the Constitution. Though laws compelling speech, discriminating on the basis of race, or singling out religious people for inferior treatment are all presumptively unconstitutional, such laws can survive judicial review when they advance particularly important goals — that is, when they advance a “compelling interest” and when the law is “narrowly tailored to satisfy that interest.”</p>
<p>The lower court determined that Colorado has a compelling interest in “ensuring ‘equal access to publicly available goods and services,’” and that the state’s anti-discrimination law is properly tailored to achieve that goal. Exempting Lorie Smith from that law, the court explained, “<a href="https://casetext.com/case/303-creative-llc-v-elenis-3">would necessarily relegate LGBT consumers to an inferior market</a>.”</p>
<p>But the Supreme Court has suggested that preventing anti-LGBTQ discrimination is <em>not</em> a “compelling interest” that can survive the strict scrutiny test. In <a href="https://scholar.google.com/scholar_case?case=5322529599500468186&hl=en&as_sdt=6&as_vis=1&oi=scholarr"><em>Burwell v. Hobby Lobby</em></a> (2014), a majority of the Court concluded that “the Government has a compelling interest in providing an equal opportunity to participate in the workforce without regard to race,” but it rather pointedly did not state that the government has a compelling interest in preventing anti-LGBTQ discrimination — of, for that matter, in preventing discrimination on the basis of gender.</p>
<p>Moreover, while <em>Masterpiece Cakeshop</em> and <em>Fulton</em> were narrow decisions, both permitted plaintiffs who refused to provide services to LGBTQ individuals to engage in such discrimination.</p>
<p>The Court has been signaling for a while, in other words, that it is likely to grant religious objectors a license to violate laws prohibiting anti-LGBTQ discrimination. At the very least, <em>303 Creative</em> is likely to give Smith a license to do so, and it could very well give an expansive license to all business owners who claim that their religion requires them to discriminate against LGBTQ people.</p>
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source <a href="https://www.vox.com/2022/2/22/22945657/supreme-court-religion-lgbtq-303-creative-elenis-colorado-discrimination">https://www.vox.com/2022/2/22/22945657/supreme-court-religion-lgbtq-303-creative-elenis-colorado-discrimination</a>

vox The Supreme Court will hear a big case about whether religion is a license to discriminate

In the past few years, the Supreme Court danced around the question of whether religious conservatives have a constitutional right to viola...

Ahmaud Arbery’s killers convicted on federal hate crimes charges

<p>Twenty-five-year-old Ahmaud Arbery <a href="https://www.vox.com/identities/2020/5/6/21249202/ahmaud-arbery-jogger-killed-in-georgia-video-shooting-grand-jury">was Black, unarmed</a>, and out for a run in a Georgia neighborhood near where he lived when three white men chased him down, and accosted, assaulted, and shot him dead nearly two years ago. Whether that all happened because the victim was Black, well, that’s something a lot of people feel they already know.</p>
<p>The effects of racism are often more visible than racist intent. Perhaps that is one reason the prosecutors <a href="https://www.vox.com/22801394/racism-ahmaud-arbery-murder-trial">dodged the topic of racial motives</a> almost entirely in the state murder trial of Travis McMichael, now 36; his father, Gregory, 66; and William “Roddie” Bryan, 52 — the men who carried out what has been labeled a <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/todaysdebate/2021/11/24/ahmaud-arbery-modern-day-lynching/8723517002/">modern-day lynching</a> in broad daylight. Each was convicted in November of an array of charges related to Arbery’s fatal shooting that day, <a href="https://www.vox.com/2021/11/24/22798878/ahmaud-arbery-guilty-verdict-trial-mcmichaels-bryan">including malice murder, felony murder, and false imprisonment</a>. In January, all <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/01/07/ahmaud-arbery-murder-sentencing/">received life sentences</a> in Georgia state prison, with the McMichaels having no chance at parole.</p>
<p>On Tuesday, a jury also convicted the men of hate crimes and other charges in <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/three-georgia-men-charged-federal-hate-crimes-and-attempted-kidnapping-connection-death">a separate, second federal trial</a> brought by the Department of Justice. Federal prosecutors argued that the men were driven to kill Arbery because of <a href="https://www.ajc.com/news/crime/feds-defendants-driven-by-pent-up-racial-anger-in-arbery-killing/XP5MJFTAAJDWFJMZBQNW245NVM/">“a fatal dose of racial resentment and racial anger.”</a> The <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2022/02/21/ahmaud-arbery-hate-crimes-trial-georgia/6884728001/">jury</a> — reportedly consisting of three Black people, eight white people, and one Hispanic person — agreed.</p>
<p>The conviction is significant for many reasons, in particular that it recognizes the role of race in the attack and killing of the unarmed young Black jogger and all but ensures the defendants will serve additional prison time. The prosecution and verdict also comes on the heels of <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/27/politics/merrick-garland-justice-department-combat-hate-crimes/index.html">Attorney General Merrick Garland’s recent efforts</a> to combat hate crimes, which have spiked during the pandemic.</p>
<p>The difference between the Georgia murder trial and the federal hate crimes trial mattered, particularly since neither race nor racism was raised as a factor by the prosecution in the murder trial, save for a mention in district attorney Linda Dunikoski’s closing statement. Howard Law School professor Justin Hansford said that amounted to a “whitewashing of this trial,” <a href="https://www.vox.com/22801394/racism-ahmaud-arbery-murder-trial">telling Vox after the verdict</a> that the tactic played to those afraid to talk about race.</p>
<p>The federal hate crimes charges made such avoidance impossible.</p>
<p>Federal hate crime prosecutions, for those victimized, can offer not only a promise of additional punishment for offenders but also an acknowledgment of the role bigotry played in a crime. That can be a powerful thing.</p>
<p>The defendants are also all pursuing appeals of the life sentences they received in their Georgia trial. (While many states have their own hate crime laws, Georgia did not have one at the time of Arbery’s death.) If they are successful, whatever federal sentences they will now receive would not be redundant.</p>
<p>The trial almost didn’t happen: Federal prosecutors initially thought they’d sealed a plea deal for two of the defendants, the McMichaels, to avoid having to try the hate crimes case at all.</p>
<p>The terms of the deal would have required both of the McMichaels to plead guilty to one charge of the government’s multi-count indictment: the part alleging that it was “because of Arbery’s race and color” that they interfered with Arbery’s right to enjoy the use of the public road on which he was jogging.</p>
<p>Then, late last month, US District Court Judge Lisa Godbey Wood took the rare step of refusing the plea deal struck by the US Department of Justice. Because that proposed deal collapsed, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/02/04/1078245310/ahmaud-arbery-travis-greg-mcmichael-hate-crime">so did their admissions of guilt</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://apnews.com/article/ahmaud-arbery-crime-race-and-ethnicity-hate-crimes-savannah-4843bf04cf74034b2f396a844599f899">According to the Associated Press</a>, Wood rejected the government’s plea deal because it locked her into adding 30 years of prison time (atop the McMichaels’ existing life-without-parole sentences), and she felt that Arbery’s family should have a say at the sentencing.</p>
<figure class="e-image"><span class="e-image__inner"><span class="e-image__image" data-original="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224794/GettyImages_1236775615.jpg"><picture class="c-picture" data-cid="site/picture_element-1645593440_1640_192626" data-cdata='{"asset_id":23224794,"ratio":"*"}'><source srcset="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/DCH6EH-3sclSYzNuvIJLo1qIPRc=/0x0:5226x3486/320x0/filters:focal(0x0:5226x3486):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224794/GettyImages_1236775615.jpg 320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Tk8YF8abHpHIyiD0mLSgwtKwLDA=/0x0:5226x3486/520x0/filters:focal(0x0:5226x3486):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224794/GettyImages_1236775615.jpg 520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/vFrjhaNPyWYUvfi6vzG-hvlhpM0=/0x0:5226x3486/720x0/filters:focal(0x0:5226x3486):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224794/GettyImages_1236775615.jpg 720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/oCZ82AH1xKWAIOIbNpLFuF3aItI=/0x0:5226x3486/920x0/filters:focal(0x0:5226x3486):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224794/GettyImages_1236775615.jpg 920w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/i286KiG7hOE6s1N1e5ap1tc3Zoo=/0x0:5226x3486/1120x0/filters:focal(0x0:5226x3486):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224794/GettyImages_1236775615.jpg 1120w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/GgxZxVnAqSx9w9n_Y_NWtPKPhp8=/0x0:5226x3486/1320x0/filters:focal(0x0:5226x3486):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224794/GettyImages_1236775615.jpg 1320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/oIhNslaXmEfGZpvu0GmB68GlB2w=/0x0:5226x3486/1520x0/filters:focal(0x0:5226x3486):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224794/GettyImages_1236775615.jpg 1520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/UsohPdVZoag_ry6YUdKXQhYcqtk=/0x0:5226x3486/1720x0/filters:focal(0x0:5226x3486):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224794/GettyImages_1236775615.jpg 1720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Tqe5-OGUFehuCC8A02SScxRD_3U=/0x0:5226x3486/1920x0/filters:focal(0x0:5226x3486):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224794/GettyImages_1236775615.jpg 1920w" sizes="(min-width: 1221px) 846px, (min-width: 880px) calc(100vw - 334px), 100vw" type="image/webp" /> <img alt="" data-upload-width="5226" sizes="(min-width: 1221px) 846px, (min-width: 880px) calc(100vw - 334px), 100vw" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/_3D0BNt4wDIUkHqaKiucBKUwXyQ=/0x0:5226x3486/1200x0/filters:focal(0x0:5226x3486):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224794/GettyImages_1236775615.jpg" srcset="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/rbk6U4bH0B5WbVI1_mRB2gKXBv4=/0x0:5226x3486/320x0/filters:focal(0x0:5226x3486):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224794/GettyImages_1236775615.jpg 320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/R549NKtreCE944wQmo5o-SUf2SQ=/0x0:5226x3486/520x0/filters:focal(0x0:5226x3486):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224794/GettyImages_1236775615.jpg 520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/18aq9H7M_JON3GpBjg4UTZM0m30=/0x0:5226x3486/720x0/filters:focal(0x0:5226x3486):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224794/GettyImages_1236775615.jpg 720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/KzmFc1eQ4rQWkLTYHbGLGbLeNus=/0x0:5226x3486/920x0/filters:focal(0x0:5226x3486):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224794/GettyImages_1236775615.jpg 920w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/G_vryyTn8VuhB7LPOZTNcPty_4c=/0x0:5226x3486/1120x0/filters:focal(0x0:5226x3486):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224794/GettyImages_1236775615.jpg 1120w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/9VuEPAfnh0s-cv0CSMfqFuSktAs=/0x0:5226x3486/1320x0/filters:focal(0x0:5226x3486):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224794/GettyImages_1236775615.jpg 1320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/34Joz6npdFcTtSleIkUVlYQ_5SU=/0x0:5226x3486/1520x0/filters:focal(0x0:5226x3486):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224794/GettyImages_1236775615.jpg 1520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/KJZ-BSFf_iDwERpvyfWBgh6hic8=/0x0:5226x3486/1720x0/filters:focal(0x0:5226x3486):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224794/GettyImages_1236775615.jpg 1720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/xZ0nFfF_xzhS0KIefAbtEeyTTBM=/0x0:5226x3486/1920x0/filters:focal(0x0:5226x3486):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224794/GettyImages_1236775615.jpg 1920w" /></picture></span></span>
<figcaption><span class="e-image__meta">Ahmaud Arbery’s mother, Wanda Cooper-Jones, attends the murder trial of Travis McMichael, his father, Gregory, and William “Roddie” Bryan in Georgia in November.</span></figcaption>
<span class="e-image__meta"><cite>Stephen B. Morton/Getty Images</cite></span></figure>
<p>Arbery’s family, who had previously objected to any plea deal being struck, disagreed with a provision allowing Travis McMichael to transfer immediately from state prison to federal custody — where, they argued, conditions wouldn’t be as tough for him or his father, were he to join him. “Please listen to me,” Wanda Cooper-Jones, who is Arbery’s mother, told the judge, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/ahmaud-arbery-crime-race-and-ethnicity-hate-crimes-savannah-4843bf04cf74034b2f396a844599f899">per AP</a>. “Granting these men their preferred choice of confinement would defeat me. It gives them one last chance to spit in my face.”</p>
<p>The two-week federal trial did shine a light on race. Federal prosecutors presented reams of evidence, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/02/22/arbery-verdict-hate-crimes/">including racist text messages and social media posts</a>, in their attempts to show that racism was a motivating factor for the men when they chased down Arbery and shot him. One text sent by Travis McMichael months before Arbery’s killing stated, “We used to walk around committing hate crimes all day.”</p>
<p>That hate crime prosecutions are uncommon, and became even rarer during the Trump administration, matters.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://bjs.ojp.gov/sites/g/files/xyckuh236/files/media/document/fhcp0519.pdf">Justice Department data</a> is somewhat surprising. There were 647 “hate crime matters,” as they were termed, investigated by US attorneys’ offices between 2005 and 2009. Fewer reports — 597 — were investigated between 2015 and 2019, marking a decrease of 8 percent. In total, however, of nearly 1,900 suspects investigated between 2005 and 2019, 82 percent were not prosecuted. The overwhelming majority of those cases were not pursued for lack of evidence.</p>
<p>However, 85 percent of defendants convicted of a hate crime were sentenced to prison, with an average term of more than 7.5 years.</p>
<p>Convicted in their federal trial, Bryan and the McMichaels are likely looking at considerably more time than 7.5 years; it could explain their willingness earlier to plead guilty to committing crimes against Arbery because he was Black in exchange for 30 years’ imprisonment.</p>
<p>The federal conviction of the McMichaels and Bryan may seem like a strong indicator of the viability of hate crime laws to administer criminal punishment and accountability. It sounds like a reason to argue that the system works.</p>
<p>Scott Hechinger, a former public defender, had a different perspective. “To me, the trials underscore how ill-equipped the criminal legal system, process, and punishment is to achieve accountability and healing,” said Hechinger, who is now the executive director of <a href="https://zealo.us/action/zealous/about">Zealous</a>, a national advocacy and education initiative that uses media and the arts to combat systemic injustice. “Ahmaud Arbery’s killers were sentenced to life without the possibility of ever being released. Sentenced to death in prison. Yet still, his killers remain unrepentant and indignant. Meanwhile, even worse: Arbery’s family remains unwhole, unhealed, traumatized.</p>
<p>“I hope that this second trial, which may result in a verdict that their crimes were actually motivated by racial animus, brings some closure to the family,” Hechinger said before the trial began this month. “I fear that it won’t. I fear that the worst possible outcome may be new expansion and harsher application of federal criminal laws and sentences that we know from experience, always disproportionately get enforced against Black and brown people and people of lower socioeconomic statuses.”</p>
<p>A guilty verdict and additional prison time may help give the Arbery family some peace, and that is significant. The more central question of this federal trial, amid continuing debates about the effectiveness of hate crime laws, is whether such laws have a deterring effect on racist violence. (Research <a href="https://www.vox.com/identities/2017/4/10/15183902/hate-crime-trump-law">suggests they don’t</a>.)</p>
<p>What is a hate crime prosecution supposed to prove? And who is it even protecting?</p>
<p>Bryan Adamson, a professor of the First Amendment and civil rights at the Case Western Reserve University School of Law, noted that a second trial can be necessary when the deprivation of someone’s civil rights results in death. The men in this case were convicted of hate crimes charges as well as kidnapping charges; the McMichaels also faced and were convicted on charges of using a firearm in the crime.</p>
<p>Adamson told Vox that federal prosecutors had a much different hill to climb than their counterparts in the state’s trial. However, the burden of proof is, in a sense, was also on the defense this time around.</p>
<p>“Prosecutors are going to have to demonstrate, by direct or by circumstantial evidence, that the defendants were motivated by the race of Ahmaud. That brings in some nuances and issues regarding proving motivation, which can be a challenge,” Adamson said before the trial began. “The prosecution has to put it front and center, but the defense then has to attempt to present a case that shows that there was anything else <em>but</em> race that motivated them to do what they did.”</p>
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<figure class="e-image"><span class="e-image__inner"><span class="e-image__image" data-original="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224808/GettyImages_1237586004.jpg"><picture class="c-picture" data-cid="site/picture_element-1645593440_1921_192627" data-cdata='{"asset_id":23224808,"ratio":"*"}'><source srcset="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ivUz8_tKJtk6oiw5d2CPGZA_uYw=/0x0:2945x1963/320x0/filters:focal(0x0:2945x1963):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224808/GettyImages_1237586004.jpg 320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Ts8EKmAZDcWUjeTE0S_ahmyz3_k=/0x0:2945x1963/520x0/filters:focal(0x0:2945x1963):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224808/GettyImages_1237586004.jpg 520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/K1VPlHDE_et0GmSr4Bk6t2ZK4hU=/0x0:2945x1963/720x0/filters:focal(0x0:2945x1963):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224808/GettyImages_1237586004.jpg 720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/6diNdU6lA66hhtskGxCRaVUyoH4=/0x0:2945x1963/920x0/filters:focal(0x0:2945x1963):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224808/GettyImages_1237586004.jpg 920w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Kvf4S7HA1tjmVqsW2uozBkExQiQ=/0x0:2945x1963/1120x0/filters:focal(0x0:2945x1963):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224808/GettyImages_1237586004.jpg 1120w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/CNgNYCkyg8hhdIeXjIcVSF7Ahog=/0x0:2945x1963/1320x0/filters:focal(0x0:2945x1963):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224808/GettyImages_1237586004.jpg 1320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/2qG6sRUIJPNetI6al27SnQk1G_0=/0x0:2945x1963/1520x0/filters:focal(0x0:2945x1963):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224808/GettyImages_1237586004.jpg 1520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/CKG_4Q2nCy9Gyo1S9Js7FCVCqzA=/0x0:2945x1963/1720x0/filters:focal(0x0:2945x1963):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224808/GettyImages_1237586004.jpg 1720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/wyyBmuggUWaJWefUv0Le6b4Wd0w=/0x0:2945x1963/1920x0/filters:focal(0x0:2945x1963):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224808/GettyImages_1237586004.jpg 1920w" sizes="(min-width: 1221px) 846px, (min-width: 880px) calc(100vw - 334px), 100vw" type="image/webp" /> <img alt="" data-upload-width="2945" sizes="(min-width: 1221px) 846px, (min-width: 880px) calc(100vw - 334px), 100vw" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/afyOyfLg_fBblLbwJKBvnDFfgXA=/0x0:2945x1963/1200x0/filters:focal(0x0:2945x1963):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224808/GettyImages_1237586004.jpg" srcset="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/30BSfDbErGFYuimLp6qdT7XLLpw=/0x0:2945x1963/320x0/filters:focal(0x0:2945x1963):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224808/GettyImages_1237586004.jpg 320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/-EQPDVtIFhO1NKBIoeWoAB53HzQ=/0x0:2945x1963/520x0/filters:focal(0x0:2945x1963):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224808/GettyImages_1237586004.jpg 520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/rbKKbbDR5379XZm9WLOV4NdR_Yo=/0x0:2945x1963/720x0/filters:focal(0x0:2945x1963):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224808/GettyImages_1237586004.jpg 720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/VyBMNIULUibdjy6fWlNvSK8iyZY=/0x0:2945x1963/920x0/filters:focal(0x0:2945x1963):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224808/GettyImages_1237586004.jpg 920w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/PAkmfr_kQMZX5lnji6sZJZu_hdg=/0x0:2945x1963/1120x0/filters:focal(0x0:2945x1963):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224808/GettyImages_1237586004.jpg 1120w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/fPo_erjHLP5HsNjNkz-g7FBytdQ=/0x0:2945x1963/1320x0/filters:focal(0x0:2945x1963):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224808/GettyImages_1237586004.jpg 1320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/j8mrJ1yt2mIDnD4nW1UAWv9WB98=/0x0:2945x1963/1520x0/filters:focal(0x0:2945x1963):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224808/GettyImages_1237586004.jpg 1520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/y3TAWJIjgZk0oaCqyOUzynm1cws=/0x0:2945x1963/1720x0/filters:focal(0x0:2945x1963):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224808/GettyImages_1237586004.jpg 1720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/4weH02l1eLe-mwfWf4ew-kcPCTs=/0x0:2945x1963/1920x0/filters:focal(0x0:2945x1963):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224808/GettyImages_1237586004.jpg 1920w" /></picture></span></span>
<figcaption><span class="e-image__meta">Travis McMichael during his sentencing in Georgia on January 7.</span></figcaption>
<span class="e-image__meta"><cite>Stephen B. Morton/Getty Images</cite></span></figure>
</div>
<div class="c-image-grid__item">
<figure class="e-image"><span class="e-image__inner"><span class="e-image__image" data-original="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224823/GettyImages_1237588514.jpg"><picture class="c-picture" data-cid="site/picture_element-1645593440_10_192628" data-cdata='{"asset_id":23224823,"ratio":"*"}'><source srcset="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/BvUNdzxGkwY39zRC3etCe2ETck8=/0x0:5172x3450/320x0/filters:focal(0x0:5172x3450):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224823/GettyImages_1237588514.jpg 320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ikWW670aGi6gH5MhdrCxfAL0GRs=/0x0:5172x3450/520x0/filters:focal(0x0:5172x3450):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224823/GettyImages_1237588514.jpg 520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/MpUyb1f3GuO5TIWrkJRYJIcrC7o=/0x0:5172x3450/720x0/filters:focal(0x0:5172x3450):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224823/GettyImages_1237588514.jpg 720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/9wHvXWXlhiDtzAd7AYLHxcdvHog=/0x0:5172x3450/920x0/filters:focal(0x0:5172x3450):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224823/GettyImages_1237588514.jpg 920w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/nBlL5SdpAaeo5EP3fpksZ11g6-s=/0x0:5172x3450/1120x0/filters:focal(0x0:5172x3450):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224823/GettyImages_1237588514.jpg 1120w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Tv3nj3eqRSStd3jSeClYZq73l7M=/0x0:5172x3450/1320x0/filters:focal(0x0:5172x3450):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224823/GettyImages_1237588514.jpg 1320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/MqG12Vc_rhwbyIu9q9Qr4ltPM5E=/0x0:5172x3450/1520x0/filters:focal(0x0:5172x3450):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224823/GettyImages_1237588514.jpg 1520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/n11tetxa7xcs-QVnHjosktiMIvg=/0x0:5172x3450/1720x0/filters:focal(0x0:5172x3450):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224823/GettyImages_1237588514.jpg 1720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/kJ92fWO70fs67e_y-MRtvuGgCZ4=/0x0:5172x3450/1920x0/filters:focal(0x0:5172x3450):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224823/GettyImages_1237588514.jpg 1920w" sizes="(min-width: 1221px) 846px, (min-width: 880px) calc(100vw - 334px), 100vw" type="image/webp" /> <img alt="" data-upload-width="5172" sizes="(min-width: 1221px) 846px, (min-width: 880px) calc(100vw - 334px), 100vw" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/sbp34m-PFUWHSkqq1yOc0ETM73w=/0x0:5172x3450/1200x0/filters:focal(0x0:5172x3450):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224823/GettyImages_1237588514.jpg" srcset="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/jrtqIWTTGJrueU1lHtKDOU5Apa0=/0x0:5172x3450/320x0/filters:focal(0x0:5172x3450):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224823/GettyImages_1237588514.jpg 320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/-AvTyhgiDfBdkKNQFiQ6IbjZH8Q=/0x0:5172x3450/520x0/filters:focal(0x0:5172x3450):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224823/GettyImages_1237588514.jpg 520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Z2nfAWW6I8ryIjnZPnJVrUeXHnk=/0x0:5172x3450/720x0/filters:focal(0x0:5172x3450):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224823/GettyImages_1237588514.jpg 720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/u5pvK8RrKlTt82BNhlaIZ3GNcfo=/0x0:5172x3450/920x0/filters:focal(0x0:5172x3450):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224823/GettyImages_1237588514.jpg 920w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/JGyxWmx35HoiKBuHcfYZ41QzoEQ=/0x0:5172x3450/1120x0/filters:focal(0x0:5172x3450):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224823/GettyImages_1237588514.jpg 1120w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/wNdFIfn0C1U4GiI_FYaDA_c5jDU=/0x0:5172x3450/1320x0/filters:focal(0x0:5172x3450):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224823/GettyImages_1237588514.jpg 1320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/fx7kZi6ncBRqTJiHqj_nbFYAZag=/0x0:5172x3450/1520x0/filters:focal(0x0:5172x3450):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224823/GettyImages_1237588514.jpg 1520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/r4ACRB1nwgQOV5bddJ_FqdGps_c=/0x0:5172x3450/1720x0/filters:focal(0x0:5172x3450):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224823/GettyImages_1237588514.jpg 1720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/_nguY8hT-Wjw2Al8-zGEkzGxlqU=/0x0:5172x3450/1920x0/filters:focal(0x0:5172x3450):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23224823/GettyImages_1237588514.jpg 1920w" /></picture></span></span>
<figcaption><span class="e-image__meta">Greg McMichael at his sentencing hearing on January 7.</span></figcaption>
<span class="e-image__meta"><cite>Stephen B. Morton/Getty Images</cite></span></figure>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<p>Bryan and the McMichaels claimed in state court that they were attempting a citizen’s arrest for a series of alleged burglaries for which they suspected Arbery, though they had no evidence. They argued their encounter was legal based on a Georgia code, since repealed, that dated back to 1863 — a law that “was basically a catching-fleeing-slave law,” Cornell University criminal law expert Joseph Margulies <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/10/26/1048398618/what-is-the-citizens-arrest-law-in-the-trial-over-ahmaud-arberys-death">told NPR</a> in October. Even the excuse that the men hoped would absolve them was stained by racism.</p>
<p>Adamson believed before trial that the defendants may try recycling elements of that failed criminal defense: They have argued that they were concerned about the crime in their neighborhood and the safety of property in the area. Many of the defense’s efforts leading up to the hate crimes trial were directed toward keeping evidence out of the case — including testimony from Bryan that Travis McMichael uttered a racial slur after fatally shooting Arbery, as well as racially offensive texts allegedly sent from Bryan’s phone. The texts ultimately were presented to the jury.</p>
<p><strong>Update, February 22, 2022</strong>: This story has been updated to reflect the February 22 conviction of the defendants on federal hate crimes charges.</p>
<br />
<br />
source <a href="https://www.vox.com/22922329/ahmaud-arbery-hate-crimes-federal-trial-guilty">https://www.vox.com/22922329/ahmaud-arbery-hate-crimes-federal-trial-guilty</a>

vox Ahmaud Arbery’s killers convicted on federal hate crimes charges

Twenty-five-year-old Ahmaud Arbery was Black, unarmed , and out for a run in a Georgia neighborhood near where he lived when three white men...

The Truth About Ukraine

<p><strong>One of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s closest allies has slammed western legacy media reports of an imminent Russian invasion as “obviously fake news” that has actually served to harm Ukraine.</strong></p>
<p>David Arakhamia, the head of the “Servant of the People” faction in Kiev’s parliament, made the comments during an interview on the TV channel 1 + 1.</p>
<p>Asserting that the crisis would all be over in a matter of weeks, Arakhamia said U.S. media propaganda was just as bad as Russian propaganda.</p>
<p>“I think that when that phase is over in two or three weeks, we should make a retrospective analysis of how large, very well-known media began to spread information worse than Olga Skabejeva and Vladimir Solovyov,” said Arakhamia, referring to two allies of Vladimir Putin.</p>
<p>“Obviously fake news in CNN, Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal … We have to study this, because it’s part of a hybrid war,” he added.</p>
<p>The Ukrainian party leader noted that Ukraine was merely being used as a pawn in an attempt by Russia to get a new security agreement.</p>
<p>Arakhamia also blamed legacy media “fake news” for negatively impacting the Ukrainian economy, with the false invasion rumors costing the country up to $3 billion dollars a month.</p>
<p>[embedded content]</p>
<p>As we <a href="https://summit.news/2022/02/17/czech-president-russia-would-be-crazy-to-start-a-war-with-ukraine/">highlighted</a> earlier, Czech President Miloš Zeman slammed the constant false claims that Russia is about to attack as a massive “embarrassment” to the U.S., comparing it to the failure to find WMD in Iraq.</p>
<p>“As for the U.S. intelligence services, this is their third embarrassment. The first was in Iraq, where no weapons of mass destruction were found. The second was in Afghanistan when they claimed that the Taliban would never conquer Kabul. Well, the third is now,” Zeman said.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Russia has <a href="https://summit.news/2022/02/17/russian-government-mocks-western-media-for-desperately-wanting-a-world-war/">enjoyed laughing</a> at the United States over their relentlessly hysterical fake warnings of war.</p>
<p>“Today we mark another day of the ‘start of war with Ukraine,’ which did not happen again, to the Western media outlets’ regret, no matter how hard they whip up the hysteria,” said Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokeswoman Maria Zakharova.</p>
<p>The tweet was accompanied with a video of tumbleweeds.</p>
<p>Earlier today, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken channeled Colin Powell during a UN speech in which he asserted (with no evidence) that Russia was planning a chemical attack as a false flag pretext to invade.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true" readability="10.570637119114">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr" xml:lang="en">US Secretary of State Antony Blinken:</p>
<p>– We do not see Russia drawing down forces<br />
– Forces preparing to launch attack against Ukraine in coming days<br />
– Russia plans to manufacture a pretext for its attack<br />
– Russian pretext could include fake or real attack using chemical weapons <a href="https://t.co/mGrPxpeKL0">pic.twitter.com/mGrPxpeKL0</a></p>
<p>— TRT World Now (@TRTWorldNow) <a href="https://twitter.com/TRTWorldNow/status/1494346971682942987?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 17, 2022</a></p>
</blockquote>
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<br />
source <a href="https://summit.news/2022/02/22/the-truth-about-ukraine/">https://summit.news/2022/02/22/the-truth-about-ukraine/</a>

revolution summit The Truth About Ukraine

One of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s closest allies has slammed western legacy media reports of an imminent Russian invasion as “...

Jan. 6th Video Shows Oath Keepers Working With Capitol Police To Rescue Riot Police

<div><img class="ff-og-image-inserted" src="https://api-assets.infowars.com/2022/02/jan6footage.jpg" /></div>
<p><strong>Unbelievable video sent to us from a listener shows two men proclaiming to be Oath Keepers assisting a uniformed Capitol police officer to lead at least a dozen Capitol Riot Police to safety.</strong></p>
<p>This video suggests Oathkeepers were not involved in an insurrection, as claimed by the FBI and others.</p>
<p>Someone show this to Stewart Rhodes’ lawyer!</p>
<p>There’s also video proof that <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://banned.video/watch?id=61ef1cdf31408b14990a923f" target="_blank">Alex Jones called on rioters not to attack the Capit</a><a href="https://banned.video/watch?id=61ef1cdf31408b14990a923f" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">o</a><a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://banned.video/watch?id=61ef1cdf31408b14990a923f" target="_blank">l</a> and pleaded with them to fall back, contrary to what the Jan. 6th Select Committee alleges.</p>
<br />
<br />
source <a href="https://www.infowars.com/posts/jan-6th-video-shows-oath-keepers-working-with-capitol-police-to-rescue-riot-police">https://www.infowars.com/posts/jan-6th-video-shows-oath-keepers-working-with-capitol-police-to-rescue-riot-police</a>

news Jan. 6th Video Shows Oath Keepers Working With Capitol Police To Rescue Riot Police

Unbelievable video sent to us from a listener shows two men proclaiming to be Oath Keepers assisting a uniformed Capitol police officer to ...

Secrets of the Great Reset and the Rainbow Swastika

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news Secrets of the Great Reset and the Rainbow Swastika

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Russia moves troops into eastern Ukraine, raising threat of larger invasion

<p>Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered troops into two Ukrainian regions held by Russian-backed separatists, a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/21/world/ukraine-russia-putin-biden">dramatic escalation</a> that threatens to spiral out into a larger conflict.</p>
<p>Putin had amassed <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-60396947">some 190,000 troops near</a> the Ukrainian border and appeared to be making <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-moves-more-weaponry-toward-ukraine-keeps-the-west-guessing-11642161605">preparations</a> <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-says-it-sees-little-scope-for-optimism-in-u-s-proposals-on-ukraine-11643290065">for</a> <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/exclusive-russia-moves-blood-supplies-near-ukraine-adding-us-concern-officials-2022-01-28/">war</a>. His decision Monday <a href="https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/02/21/putins-move-on-donestk-lugansk-is-illegal-but-fall-short-of-invasion/">violates the principles of international law</a>, but isn’t yet being treated by the West as an invasion that the US promised would trigger a “<a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/blinken-vows-swift-and-massive-response-should-russia-invade-ukraine/6405332.html">massive</a>” package of sanctions.</p>
<p>The question now is whether this is a preface to a much larger invasion of Ukraine.</p>
<p>Though Russia hasn’t yet staged the large-scale land invasion that the Biden administration has been publicly warning about for several days, a dizzying series of developments over the weekend showed how the window for a diplomatic outcome has narrowed. After days of <a href="https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/christopherm51/russia-false-reports-ukraine-justify-attack">fabricated claims of Ukrainian aggression</a>, on Monday Putin delivered a combative, hour-long speech on Ukraine, which essentially denied Ukrainian statehood and tried to portray NATO as a direct threat to Russia.</p>
<figure class="e-image"><span class="e-image__inner"><span class="e-image__image" data-original="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23183594/russia_ukraine_map_1.jpg"><picture class="c-picture" data-cid="site/picture_element-1645502185_5997_2160272" data-cdata='{"asset_id":23183594,"ratio":"*"}'><source srcset="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/_hv7sjif7VkeGUy9rGeCCLZWxb4=/0x0:2000x1740/320x0/filters:focal(0x0:2000x1740):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23183594/russia_ukraine_map_1.jpg 320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/S48BQtSUzwgOzAbB2Jaa82gslW4=/0x0:2000x1740/520x0/filters:focal(0x0:2000x1740):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23183594/russia_ukraine_map_1.jpg 520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/iZJ2s-vGIr686NPYHYvJj3JMjVA=/0x0:2000x1740/720x0/filters:focal(0x0:2000x1740):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23183594/russia_ukraine_map_1.jpg 720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/nzHT5jVKXoG8FdkDXsf4xyYyu9Y=/0x0:2000x1740/920x0/filters:focal(0x0:2000x1740):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23183594/russia_ukraine_map_1.jpg 920w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/zr-uanu5dXvbMkdOaxbuGPRE7rQ=/0x0:2000x1740/1120x0/filters:focal(0x0:2000x1740):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23183594/russia_ukraine_map_1.jpg 1120w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/1w4avoPhnQkgZU-wJQ5kILKY3Ps=/0x0:2000x1740/1320x0/filters:focal(0x0:2000x1740):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23183594/russia_ukraine_map_1.jpg 1320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/-04j1xyPs3ee1qG202uqZzWimkc=/0x0:2000x1740/1520x0/filters:focal(0x0:2000x1740):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23183594/russia_ukraine_map_1.jpg 1520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/GegQ73PmELuQsEvAHG_IVIfGZ1E=/0x0:2000x1740/1720x0/filters:focal(0x0:2000x1740):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23183594/russia_ukraine_map_1.jpg 1720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/IXGMUk2AaZsPMbXlZv_DBXCCLTk=/0x0:2000x1740/1920x0/filters:focal(0x0:2000x1740):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23183594/russia_ukraine_map_1.jpg 1920w" sizes="(min-width: 1221px) 846px, (min-width: 880px) calc(100vw - 334px), 100vw" type="image/webp" /> <img alt="Map of Russia and Ukraine" data-upload-width="2000" sizes="(min-width: 1221px) 846px, (min-width: 880px) calc(100vw - 334px), 100vw" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/GPhMDuPCR50bmizwICjH0rH6dbY=/0x0:2000x1740/1200x0/filters:focal(0x0:2000x1740):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23183594/russia_ukraine_map_1.jpg" srcset="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Q-okfjCh-UUA16pwn9MZrNooh-4=/0x0:2000x1740/320x0/filters:focal(0x0:2000x1740):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23183594/russia_ukraine_map_1.jpg 320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/6ciIR-R_-0l3toKM_bB8hJIUmu8=/0x0:2000x1740/520x0/filters:focal(0x0:2000x1740):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23183594/russia_ukraine_map_1.jpg 520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/-6O1-QBuvo8prX5DbWmf14hkTl8=/0x0:2000x1740/720x0/filters:focal(0x0:2000x1740):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23183594/russia_ukraine_map_1.jpg 720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ISbyjnen9Vfo9XmfcyiqR-1cCIY=/0x0:2000x1740/920x0/filters:focal(0x0:2000x1740):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23183594/russia_ukraine_map_1.jpg 920w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/IWvTBGRr2X6SzsOMRRcTfHNVqR4=/0x0:2000x1740/1120x0/filters:focal(0x0:2000x1740):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23183594/russia_ukraine_map_1.jpg 1120w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/kCk7PC_5U3ZEg7w_5Lagp-qkfko=/0x0:2000x1740/1320x0/filters:focal(0x0:2000x1740):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23183594/russia_ukraine_map_1.jpg 1320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/2KJYwUDXpUAH3xd0PwfupVeAOX0=/0x0:2000x1740/1520x0/filters:focal(0x0:2000x1740):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23183594/russia_ukraine_map_1.jpg 1520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/gbhh6LvBbhfIiTR0zQidLNMLIJw=/0x0:2000x1740/1720x0/filters:focal(0x0:2000x1740):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23183594/russia_ukraine_map_1.jpg 1720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/R9_GEOYt4flhqkW8BJtui_mEN5A=/0x0:2000x1740/1920x0/filters:focal(0x0:2000x1740):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23183594/russia_ukraine_map_1.jpg 1920w" /></picture></span></span> <span class="e-image__meta"><cite>Christina Animashaun/Vox</cite></span></figure>
<p>In that speech, Putin recognized the so-called Luhansk People’s Republic and the Donetsk People’s Republic as independent, two territories in eastern Ukraine where he has backed separatists since 2014. “Otherwise, all responsibility for the possible continuation of the bloodshed will be entirely on the conscience of the regime ruling on the territory of Ukraine,” <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/extracts-putins-speech-ukraine-2022-02-21/">Putin said</a>. “Announcing the decisions taken today, I am confident in the support of the citizens of Russia. Of all the patriotic forces of the country.”</p>
<p>Soon after, Putin announced the deployment of troops for “peacekeeping operations.”</p>
<p>Most experts Vox spoke to said this looks like the beginning, not the end, of Russia’s incursion into Ukraine — although it is impossible to predict events. Russia’s declaration of independence for the breakaway territories, and the move of peacekeeping forces into that territory, “sets the stage for the next steps,” said Michael Kofman, research director in the Russia studies program at CNA, a research organization in Arlington, Virginia.</p>
<p>“In Russia, [it] provides the political-legal basis for the formal introduction of Russian forces, which they’ve already decided to do,” he said. “Secondarily, it provides the legal local basis for Russian use force in defense of these independent Republic’s Russians citizens there. It’s basically political theater.”</p>
<p>What Russia does from here on out is likely to determine how the United States and its NATO allies respond to Russia’s actions. The White House <a href="https://www.vox.com/22916773/russia-ukraine-sanctions-putin">has promised severe sanctions for a Russian invasion</a> — but so far the US and European allies have just sanctioned the two breakaway regions.</p>
<p>Russia has tens of thousands troops along different parts of the border with Ukraine. It is a force capable, and in position, <a href="https://www.vox.com/22917719/russia-ukraine-invasion-border-crisis-nato-explained">for a much larger scale operation</a>. “Russia did not need to amass 190,000 troops in order to just recognize the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk,” said Natia Seskuria, an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute.</p>
<p>In 2014, Russia annexed Crimea and invaded eastern Ukraine, backing pro-Kremlin separatists in the regions of Luhansk and Donetsk in a conflict that has killed at least 14,000 and simmered to present day.</p>
<p>Shelling from the Russian-backed separatist side of the border intensified this week, with separatist leaders blaming — without evidence — Kyiv for the fighting, and calling on its residents to evacuate. By Monday, Putin had called a <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/95074e66-2da9-431e-8959-2039f5d3c08d">theatrical meeting with his security council</a> to discuss the situation, and then hours later declared these breakaway regions independent, sending in forces for what he described as a “peacekeeping” mission.</p>
<figure class="e-image"><span class="e-image__inner"><span class="e-image__image" data-original="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23262091/1238504022.jpg"><picture class="c-picture" data-cid="site/picture_element-1645502185_1743_2160273" data-cdata='{"asset_id":23262091,"ratio":"*"}'><source srcset="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/V8197sItAgyL5In11CqGVAk-SMg=/0x0:5760x3840/320x0/filters:focal(0x0:5760x3840):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23262091/1238504022.jpg 320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/E0Om6g1nzQ2NsAs_8WC77Xfy0d4=/0x0:5760x3840/520x0/filters:focal(0x0:5760x3840):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23262091/1238504022.jpg 520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/XPviTBwW-RQQW-4pRlOzO1QCY0U=/0x0:5760x3840/720x0/filters:focal(0x0:5760x3840):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23262091/1238504022.jpg 720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/-Ph4aOpa4KucTZ986w5vbV69Fh0=/0x0:5760x3840/920x0/filters:focal(0x0:5760x3840):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23262091/1238504022.jpg 920w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/EW6MNh6tOAL9YNnAsEKUDq2qAIw=/0x0:5760x3840/1120x0/filters:focal(0x0:5760x3840):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23262091/1238504022.jpg 1120w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/4IKJC4NK4M_mXAvr3f9-J_n5Uns=/0x0:5760x3840/1320x0/filters:focal(0x0:5760x3840):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23262091/1238504022.jpg 1320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/IZIApsw6OZrTvUJZny7XPj9UWbQ=/0x0:5760x3840/1520x0/filters:focal(0x0:5760x3840):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23262091/1238504022.jpg 1520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/X6zC30AupaoThtvzpQBW5qVqSIw=/0x0:5760x3840/1720x0/filters:focal(0x0:5760x3840):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23262091/1238504022.jpg 1720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/MV5RUE2N2-9D2ECCcj9btUhZcLE=/0x0:5760x3840/1920x0/filters:focal(0x0:5760x3840):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23262091/1238504022.jpg 1920w" sizes="(min-width: 1221px) 846px, (min-width: 880px) calc(100vw - 334px), 100vw" type="image/webp" /> <img alt="Donetsk People’s Republic front-line troops in Ukraine" data-upload-width="5760" sizes="(min-width: 1221px) 846px, (min-width: 880px) calc(100vw - 334px), 100vw" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/eE20lRAu3bdskzyIVX1vh28kGGk=/0x0:5760x3840/1200x0/filters:focal(0x0:5760x3840):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23262091/1238504022.jpg" srcset="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/tDjz0o8Vf0A0jWsL3GBGXzHJccw=/0x0:5760x3840/320x0/filters:focal(0x0:5760x3840):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23262091/1238504022.jpg 320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/tZ03pm0ukRzRiWixxqW-4nj0tD8=/0x0:5760x3840/520x0/filters:focal(0x0:5760x3840):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23262091/1238504022.jpg 520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/dZV4UdH7TUtvywaCqjKzb7hinPA=/0x0:5760x3840/720x0/filters:focal(0x0:5760x3840):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23262091/1238504022.jpg 720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/7S8Sl4iOgSLy5JmdpQ2m8Nkn3n8=/0x0:5760x3840/920x0/filters:focal(0x0:5760x3840):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23262091/1238504022.jpg 920w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ScYb6UdC_DTyuc9Yy7a4r-L8RWk=/0x0:5760x3840/1120x0/filters:focal(0x0:5760x3840):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23262091/1238504022.jpg 1120w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Fb6uwqbmUOmzcxMMHcwWRchlWy4=/0x0:5760x3840/1320x0/filters:focal(0x0:5760x3840):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23262091/1238504022.jpg 1320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/n6boE1NRCBMsjzjfVxU8QIj6tB0=/0x0:5760x3840/1520x0/filters:focal(0x0:5760x3840):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23262091/1238504022.jpg 1520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/0qHKp2ZgFDDrJjTDnp3cUC3YsQU=/0x0:5760x3840/1720x0/filters:focal(0x0:5760x3840):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23262091/1238504022.jpg 1720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/13EX0n1d8nzbf46k2oDq9e7mVNA=/0x0:5760x3840/1920x0/filters:focal(0x0:5760x3840):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23262091/1238504022.jpg 1920w" /></picture></span></span>
<figcaption><span class="e-image__meta">A serviceman of the Donetsk People’s Militia holds a fragment of a shell fired at the front line near the rural town of Staromikhailovka, west of Donetsk, February 15, 2022.</span></figcaption>
<span class="e-image__meta"><cite>Photo by Valentin Sprinchak/TASS via Getty Images</cite></span></figure>
<p>Olga Lautman, a non-resident senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, described this as an invasion. But she also said that it was likely a distraction — laying a foundation for other more steps to come. Rep. Liz Cheney <a href="https://twitter.com/RepLizCheney/status/1495896311933333504?s=20&t=PYvbUFlQZrXeRQ3WYr1tyQ">tweeted</a>, “Russia has invaded Ukraine,” and Michael McFaul, who served as Obama’s ambassador to Russia, <a href="https://twitter.com/McFaul/status/1495942401076117506?s=20&t=PYvbUFlQZrXeRQ3WYr1tyQ">said</a> the same.</p>
<p>Kofman, of CNA, described it as a “renewed invasion,” building on what happened in 2014 and 2015. Meanwhile, analyst Anatol Lieven of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft <a href="https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/02/21/putins-move-on-donestk-lugansk-is-illegal-but-fall-short-of-invasion/">wrote</a>, “This would fall far short of invasion. It would mark only a limited escalation in the conflict that has been going on in the Donbas since 2014.”</p>
<p>It’s unclear if this escalation will lead to Russian troops directly engaging Ukrainian ones, or what will happen on the ground in these so-called independent republics in the coming days.</p>
<p>But this distinction of what is and isn’t an invasion matters, as it will direct how the United States and its allies will respond. On Monday evening, the White House issued an executive order with sanctions against those doing business in the breakaway republics. But US has yet to call recent developments an “invasion,” and in summary’s of President Joe Biden’s calls with European leaders, the White House described the events as an “ongoing escalation along the borders of Ukraine” this evening, and “a clear attack on Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”</p>
<p>A White House official also told reporters that while the administration did not yet rule out more severe sanctions, it will “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/21/world/ukraine-russia-putin-biden#the-us-said-it-will-impose-sanctions-on-the-breakaway-regions-but-not-for-now-on-russia">assess what Russia does and not focus on what Russia says.</a>”</p>
<p>The world has been closely watching Russia’s troop movements on the Ukrainian front since November. Late last year, Moscow issued the United States a series of demands. They included some pretty big asks, including a guarantee against Ukraine’s eventual NATO membership and a commitment for NATO to roll back some of its troop deployment in countries recently admitted to the alliance. These were non-starters for the US and its allies, as it would effectively give Russia veto power over the alliance’s decisions — and over European security.</p>
<p>Still, diplomatic efforts followed, with the US and Russia negotiating for most of January, and European and US leaders cycling through Ukraine and Moscow. But even as these efforts took place, Russia’s mass mobilization of soldiers around Ukraine in recent weeks has signaled Putin’s interest in maintaining the option of a full-fledged land war in Europe.</p>
<p>The reasons for this conflict are complex, rooted in <a href="https://www.vox.com/22900113/nato-ukraine-russia-crisis-clinton-expansion">post–Cold War history</a> and Russia’s <a href="https://www.vox.com/2022/2/7/22916942/biden-lessons-russia-2014-invasion-ukraine-crimea">2014 invasion</a> of Ukraine, and raise larger questions about the place of the US and Russia in the 21st century.</p>
<p>NATO’s eastward expansion to former Soviet republics on the Russian border since the Cold War ended hasn’t helped. Biden’s CIA director Bill Burns, who served as ambassador to Russia from 2005 to 2008, had <a href="https://peterbeinart.substack.com/p/bidens-cia-director-doesnt-believe?utm_source=url">predicted</a> that giving Ukraine NATO membership would “create fertile soil for Russian meddling in Crimea and eastern Ukraine.” (Ukraine isn’t part of NATO and wouldn’t be any time soon, but it has deepened cooperation with the West since 2014).</p>
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<figcaption><span class="e-image__meta">Russian President Vladimir Putin signs documents, including a decree recognizing two Russian-backed breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent, during a ceremony at the Kremlin in Moscow, February 21, 2022.</span></figcaption>
<span class="e-image__meta"><cite>Photo by ALEXEY NIKOLSKY/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images</cite></span></figure>
<p>But Putin has dismissed Ukrainian sovereignty entirely. In Monday’s speech and in a <a href="http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181">July 2021 essay</a> he claimed Ukraine is part of a “unified state” with Russia. The decision to move troops in Monday isn’t officially Russia annexing Donetsk and Luhansk — yet — but it does continue that trend toward pulling the country back into Moscow’s orbit.</p>
<p>Up until today, the Russian plan was to pressure Ukraine to adopt the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/what-are-minsk-agreements-ukraine-conflict-2022-02-21/">2015 Minsk Agreement</a> that would allow Ukraine to regain formal control over the Donbas rebel-held areas in return for granting their proxies an <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/11/19/ukraine-russia-putin-border-522989">outsize role</a> over decision making in the capital of Kyiv, explained Samuel Charap, a senior political scientist at the Rand Corporation.</p>
<p>“Today, [Russia] declared the Minsk agreements dead completely, which means that the era of Russia trying to achieve its objectives through a negotiated return of the Donbas is over,” he said. “It means they’re about to get to establish their influence through the use of force.”</p>
<p>Putin is likely the one of the only ones one who really knows that, but the diplomatic pathways out of this conflict are rapidly closing, and experts say that Putin looks to be building a pretext he may need to carry out a more robust attack on Ukraine, possibly going so far and threatening the capital of Kyiv. This is the worst-case scenario that the White House has warned about; a war that will cost tens of thousands of lives and potentially spur a mass refugee crisis.</p>
<p>Putin’s escalation in eastern Ukraine occurred the day after French President Emmanuel Macron spoke with the Russian leader <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-21/biden-putin-agree-in-principle-to-summit-proposal-france-says">for hours,</a> which seemed to point to a possible diplomatic out — specifically, a summit “in principle” between President Biden and Putin, after Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov were scheduled to meet Thursday. Russia’s latest actions almost certainly jeopardize any sort of high-level summit, said Rajan Menon, director of the Grand Strategy program at Defense Priorities.</p>
<p>Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an address Monday that Putin’s incursion was a violation of the country’s “national integrity and sovereignty.”</p>
<p>“We are on our land, we are not afraid of anything and anyone, we don’t owe anything to anyone, and we will not give away anything to anyone. And we are confident of this,” <a href="https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-21-22/index.html">he said.</a></p>
<p>Ukraine, though, doesn’t really have many options. The Ukrainian army, if it returns fire, risks giving Russia the exact pretext it would need to attack. Though, experts pointed out, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/17/politics/us-russia-ukraine-thursday/index.html">Russia is already trying hard to manufacture the evidence</a>, with or without Ukrainian involvement.</p>
<p>And that all feeds into whatever Putin might do next. Putin’s formal recognition of the independence of the two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine created a justification for a formal military presence in the area. Moscow has already been circulating fake videos <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/21/dumb-and-lazy-the-flawed-films-of-ukrainian-attacks-made-by-russias-fake-factory">on Russian state media of alleged Ukrainian attacks</a>. Even if some of these videos are poorly produced, US intelligence officials and experts have repeatedly suggested Russia might attempt to manufacture a “false flag” attack as a provocation to justify more robust military force.</p>
<p>“By recognizing the independence of Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories, Donetsk and Luhansk, the Kremlin has laid the foundations for its ambition to achieve main goals of the regime change and erasing the Ukrainian sovereignty, hence the return of Ukraine into Russia’s sphere of influence,” Seskuria, of RUSI, said.</p>
<p>This hasn’t happened yet. But the question is what — if anything — will move Putin from this course.</p>
<p>As Biden himself noted in 2018 while <a href="https://www.cfr.org/event/foreign-affairs-issue-launch-former-vice-president-joe-biden">speaking</a> about Russia at the Council on Foreign Relations, “My dad had an expression, ‘Never back a man in a corner whose only way out is over top of you.’ Well, you know, take a look at Russia now. Where do they go?”</p>
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source <a href="https://www.vox.com/2022/2/21/22944995/russia-vladimir-putin-orders-troops-ukraine-east-donbas">https://www.vox.com/2022/2/21/22944995/russia-vladimir-putin-orders-troops-ukraine-east-donbas</a>

vox Russia moves troops into eastern Ukraine, raising threat of larger invasion

Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered troops into two Ukrainian regions held by Russian-backed separatists, a dramatic escalation th...