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6 epidemiologists on how omicron is — and isn’t — changing their holiday plans

<div><img class="ff-og-image-inserted" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ecEkUuRJZbWtK1MBgSvTy8oe8yQ=/0x562:3932x2621/fit-in/1200x630/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23115344/GettyImages_1230293349.jpg" /></div>
With the <a href="https://www.vox.com/22839742/omicron-covid-19-winter-surge-vaccine-booster-forecast">omicron variant</a> causing huge surges of Covid-19 infection, many of us are anxiously reconsidering our holiday plans. Is air travel safe? Can we still hug our parents? How should we think about testing? What about holiday parties?
I asked six epidemiologists how omicron is and isn’t changing their near-term plans. Most were already planning to keep things low-key, but they have added some modifications to make their gatherings safer in light of the variant. These include adding in buffer time between air travel and seeing relatives, testing multiple times, and taking into consideration whether contacts have been boosted as well as being vaccinated.
As you’re thinking about how to make your holiday plans as safe as possible, it helps to consider things in two stages: what you can do before you or your guests set out, and what to do once you or they have arrived. Let’s break it down.
When you’re considering how safe it is to travel for a holiday gathering, you might be inclined to focus on how the travel happens: driving or flying? But experts say it’s just as important — if not more important — to think about where everyone is coming from and how much they’ve been limiting their exposure in the days leading up to the trip.
That means paying attention to the Covid-19 rates in the location you’re coming from and the location you’re going to. It’s true that the rate at which omicron spreads makes it hard to predict which places are safest, and testing data lags behind the true reality on the ground. But some places, like <a href="https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coronavirus/this-is-a-whole-new-animal-breakthrough-infections-rattle-nyc-amid-omicron-surge/3456543/">New York</a>, are already seeing a lot more cases — including among vaccinated people — than other parts of the country. People coming from a hot spot may be bringing with them a worse risk profile, though they can reduce that risk by trying to limit their exposure before traveling and by getting tested (more on that below).
If the people you want to celebrate with are within driving distance, that’s optimal — traveling by car will allow you to avoid extra exposures on your way.
It’s less optimal if your holiday plans require air travel, but the experts I spoke to said you can probably travel by plane with relatively low risk, assuming you’re vaccinated and boosted and willing to keep an N95 or other high-quality mask on pretty much the whole time. (Different people have different levels of risk tolerance and susceptibility to severe disease, of course; you might reasonably feel more comfortable with this if you’re young and healthy than if you’re older or immunocompromised.) Experts say your goal should be to reduce the risk for both yourself and others.
“I would advise wearing high-quality masks during travel and staying away from people as much as possible within the airports (especially if others are unmasked to eat/drink/etc.),” Tara Smith, a professor of epidemiology at Kent State University, told me by email. “I would advise testing before travel to make sure you’re not exposing others. Ideally this would include a PCR test shortly before the flight, but realistically, these are getting harder to do because of a delay in turn-around times for testing. Rapid tests would be another alternative.”
So try to wear an N95 continuously in the airport and on the plane, limiting as much as possible your time spent maskless for eating or drinking (especially when other people are close by). And plan to take a rapid antigen test (think BinaxNowor QuickVue) right before you leave for the airport, if you can get access to one.
Katelyn Jetelina, an assistant professor of epidemiology with the University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, is flying to California with two young daughters, whose great-grandparents are excited to spend Christmas with them. All the adults are vaccinated and boosted; the kids are too young to be eligible. Jetelina told me she’s been getting increasingly concerned about severe breakthrough cases among older adults, but rather than cancel the flight in light of omicron, she modified it.
“We changed our flight to arrive a few days earlier, so if we were exposed at the airport, then there were a few days between landing and seeing the great-grandparents. Adding a few days between the two will ensure that if we were exposed, then antigen tests would pick up the mounting infection,” she said. “We will test before leaving for the airport and every other day until the holiday event. The morning of the event, everyone is taking an antigen test.”
If you have to fly, you can similarly consider flying early and lying low — maybe in an Airbnb — for three or four days before taking a rapid test and then joining the group. This could be a particularly good option if the group includes older, immunocompromised, or otherwise vulnerable people.
Parents of children who are too young to be vaccinated may be finding it especially hard to decide on a plan that can keep things reasonably safe for both the children and those they come into contact with. The experts I spoke to recommended limiting social interactions for the kids in the days before a gathering, masking them when possible, and testing them.
Beyond that? “I think there really is a risk-benefit calculation that has to be made — and I think that’s going to be an individual, and family, choice,” said David Dowdy, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins. “Make sure that everyone who is going to be at a given gathering feels comfortable with a small (and therefore unvaccinated) child being there. The one thing you don’t want to do is make others in your family uncomfortable.”
All the epidemiologists agreed it’s best to keep gatherings small (two to three households or under 10 people is a good rule of thumb). Ideally, everyone there should be not only double-vaccinated but also boosted. Early evidence suggests that omicron significantly reduces the protection afforded by two doses, but <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/boosters-give-70-75-protection-against-mild-disease-omicron-uk-health-security-2021-12-10/">a booster helps restore it</a>.
“I’m much, much more comfortable bringing my girls around boosted people than unvaccinated or those with just two [shots],” said Jetelina, whose daughters are both under 3 years old.
“If I knew everyone in my holiday gathering were fully vaccinated and boosted, I wouldn’t be terribly concerned, unless a member of my party were older and had a health condition that put them at elevated risk of more severe disease, in which case I would have some concerns for their health,” said Janet Baseman, a professor of epidemiology at the University of Washington. “We are still awaiting data on how well boosters protect against severe disease with omicron.”
Baseman added that maximizing ventilation in indoor spaces to increase airflow can help; if you have access to a HEPA filter, now’s a great time to get it running. Alternatively, you can open windows if it’s not too cold.
It’s important to avoid larger gatherings, especially if some people there may be unvaccinated.
“I had decided earlier in the year that I am not gathering inside with unvaccinated individuals,” Smith said. “It’s a risk I’m not willing to take.”
Dowdy told me that, as recently as November, his team at work routinely had social lunches of around 10 people and he never thought twice about attending. But his assessment has changed over the past couple of weeks. “I wouldn’t personally be going to an indoor holiday party with more than a few people,” he said.
Note that if people take a rapid test a day before the gathering and get a negative result, that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re negative when they show up to the party. The test only reveals that they’re probably not infectious at the moment they put that swab in their nose; <a href="https://twitter.com/BQuilty/status/1471392764004913152">a day later</a>, they may be carrying an infectious level of virus. At a <a href="https://www.fhi.no/en/news/2021/preliminary-findings-from-outbreak-investigation-after-christmas-party-in-o/">Christmas party in Norway</a>, the vast majority of guests were double-vaccinated and everyone had reported a negative result (PCR test or rapid test) one to three days earlier; nevertheless, 80 out of 111 guests ended up being diagnosed with Covid-19, likely with the omicron variant.
<div>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
A demo of how fast you can turn positive:
Yesterday morning, yesterday lunchtime, yesterday evening, this morning.
Do LFTs *just* before meeting up. <a href="https://t.co/3zM2rDkoa7">pic.twitter.com/3zM2rDkoa7</a>
— Billy Quilty (@BQuilty) <a href="https://twitter.com/BQuilty/status/1471392764004913152?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 16, 2021</a></blockquote>
</div>
So don’t be shy about asking people to test an hour or so before showing up at your door. They can even do a rapid test in the car right outside your house.
Kate Grabowski, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins, noted that it’s also good to have extra rapid tests on hand in case anyone becomes symptomatic in the days following the gathering (though it’s very hard to get tests now in many places). “Being able to know your disease status early into symptom onset is very critical for getting the best clinical care,” she said.
For some people, the happiness, sense of meaning, and mental health benefits that come with seeing family will outweigh the risks this holiday season.
“I’ve seen my nephew one time in the last three years due to the pandemic. We are literally missing out on his entire early childhood,” Grabowski told me. So her boosted sister and brother-in-law will fly in with their 4-year-old son to spend the holiday with her, after taking precautions like getting vaccinated, masking, rapid testing, and reducing exposure. “We have decided to take this calculated risk. Others may not feel comfortable, and that’s totally okay.”
Eleanor Murray, an epidemiologist at Boston University, is among those who feel more comfortable lying low for the time being, while cases are skyrocketing. She told me she decided not to fly out to see her relatives for the holidays. “But that doesn’t mean I don’t think that other people can plan fairly safe ways to gather,” she said. “If we all make our holidays a little bit safer, our actions could add up to something big.”
 
 
source <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22846323/omicron-winter-holiday-plans-travel">https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22846323/omicron-winter-holiday-plans-travel</a>

vox 6 epidemiologists on how omicron is — and isn’t — changing their holiday plans

With the omicron variant causing huge surges of Covid-19 infection, many of us are anxiously reconsidering our holiday plans. Is air trave...

"Evidence Omicron Spreading Significantly Faster Than Delta," WHO Warns

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<div class="ins_instory_dv_cont"><img alt="'Evidence Omicron Spreading Significantly Faster Than Delta,' WHO Warns" src="https://c.ndtvimg.com/2020-04/md54p5i_world-health-organization-_625x300_25_April_20.jpg" title="'Evidence Omicron Spreading Significantly Faster Than Delta,' WHO Warns" /></div>
WHO pointed towards the development of second and third generation vaccines as a ray of hope.
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Geneva:
The Omicron variant of the coronavirus is spreading faster than the Delta variant and is causing infections in people already vaccinated or who have recovered from the COVID-19 disease, the head of the World Health Organisation (WHO) said on Monday.
WHO chief scientist Soumya Swaminathan added it would be "unwise" to conclude from early evidence that Omicron was a milder variant than previous ones.
"... with the numbers going up, all health systems are going to be under strain," Soumya Swaminathan told Geneva-based journalists.
The variant is successfully evading some immune responses, she said, meaning that the booster programmes being rolled out in many countries ought to be targeted towards people with weaker immune systems.
"There is now consistent evidence that Omicron is spreading significantly faster than the Delta variant," WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told the briefing.
"And it is more likely people vaccinated or recovered from COVID-19 could be infected or re-infected," Tedros said.
Their comments echoed the finding of study by Imperial College London, which said last week the risk of reinfection was more than five times higher and it has shown no sign of being milder than Delta.
WHO officials said however that other forms of immunity vaccinations may prevent infection and disease.
While the antibody defences from some actions have been undermined, there has been hope that T-cells, the second pillar of an immune response, can prevent severe disease by attacking infected human cells.
WHO expert Abdi Mahamud added: "Although we are seeing a reduction in the neutralisation antibodies, almost all preliminary analysis shows T-cell mediated immunity remains intact, that is what we really require."
However, highlighting how little is known about how to handle the new variant that was only detected last month, Swaminathan also said: "Of course there is a challenge, many of the monoclonals will not work with Omicron."
She gave no details as she referred to the treatments that mimic natural antibodies in fighting off infections. Some drug makers have suggested the same.
ENDING THE PANDEMIC
In the short term, Tedros said that holiday festivities would in many places lead to "increased cases, overwhelmed health systems and more deaths" and urged people to postpone gatherings.
"An event cancelled is better than a life cancelled," he said.
But the WHO team also offered some hope to a weary world facing the new wave that 2022 would be the year that the pandemic, which already killed more than 5.6 million people worldwide, would end.
It pointed towards the development of second and third generation vaccines, and the further development of antimicrobial treatments and other innovations.
"(We) hope to consign this disease to a relatively mild disease that is easily prevented, that is easily treated," Mike Ryan, the WHO's top emergency expert, told the briefing.
"If we can keep virus transmission to minimum, then we can bring the pandemic to an end."
However Tedros also said China, where the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus was first detected at the end of 2019, must be forthcoming with data and information related to its origin to help the response going forward.
"We need to continue until we know the origins, we need to push harder because we should learn from what happened this time in order to (do) better in the future," Tedros said.
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
 
 
source <a href="https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/coronavirus-variant-news-evidence-omicron-spreading-significantly-faster-than-delta-world-health-organisation-warns-2662462">https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/coronavirus-variant-news-evidence-omicron-spreading-significantly-faster-than-delta-world-health-organisation-warns-2662462</a>

news world "Evidence Omicron Spreading Significantly Faster Than Delta," WHO Warns

WHO pointed towards the development of second and third generation vaccines as a ray of hope. Geneva: The Omicron variant of the corona...

How The Peloponnesian War Teaches Us That Humans Never Changed

armageddon How The Peloponnesian War Teaches Us That Humans Never Changed

In history we see, that all history is a repetition of the present: [embedded content] source https://shoebat.com/2021/12/21/how-the-pe...

Implantable Microchip Stores Your COVID Vaccination Status

As if the liberty erasing connotations of vaccine passports were not enough on their own, it has been revealed that the Scottish government has allowed data from the scheme to be shared with private companies including Amazon.
The <a href="https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/vaccination-passport-app-shares-personal-25285887">Daily Record</a> reports, “We have learned the NHS mobile phone app which presents the personal medical information in the form of a QR Code shares data with companies including Amazon, Microsoft, ServiceNow, Royal Mail and an AI facial recognition firm.”
Users of the vaccine passport app were not informed their data would be shared, according to the report.
Commenting on the findings, Sam Grant of privacy advocate group Liberty warned “Vaccine passports create a two-tier society and already many people in Scotland have been coerced into getting a vaccine passport in order to attend events and access certain parts of society.”
Grant added, “It’s extremely concerning that, in doing so, data has been shared with third parties without people having the option to opt out or without even being made aware that this is happening. This only furthers the wide concerns people already have around vaccine passports.”
The leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrat party, Alex Cole-Hamilton, also stated that his party “have repeatedly warned the Government that data protection is virtually non-existent – a simple screenshot was enough to bypass whatever ‘security measures’ the system had in place.”
“The launch was a shambles and the IT system struggled to cope,” Cole-Hamilton explained, adding “Everyone has the right to medical privacy; nobody should ever have to provide part of their medical history to a bouncer or a series of private companies. That is just simply absurd.”
Silkie Carlo, the head of another Privacy advocate group, Big Brother Watch, explained Monday why the vaccine passports are a total failure in Scotland:
<figure class="wp-block-embed-twitter wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter"></figure>
The British government has consistently lied about the introduction of vaccine passports:
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The Government repeatedly told us there were no plans for vaccine passports…
We now know that while these clips were recorded, plans for Covid passes were already in the works.
👀 Why did they lie?
✊ It's time to fight back <a href="https://t.co/A2lzv4B8mu">pic.twitter.com/A2lzv4B8mu</a>
— Big Brother Watch (@BigBrotherWatch) <a href="https://twitter.com/BigBrotherWatch/status/1462352586447724545?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 21, 2021</a></blockquote>
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</figure>
Government data, and peer reviewed studies, show that the vaccinated are just as likely to spread the virus as the unvaxxed.
That being the case, the case for vaccine passports has been completely demolished:
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source <a href="https://summit.news/2021/12/20/implantable-microchip-stores-your-covid-vaccination-status/">https://summit.news/2021/12/20/implantable-microchip-stores-your-covid-vaccination-status/</a>

revolution summit Implantable Microchip Stores Your COVID Vaccination Status

As if the liberty erasing connotations of vaccine passports were not enough on their own, it has been revealed that the Scottish government ...

Passersby Shout ‘F*** Joe Biden!’ During Live Fox News Interview in New York City

A couple in New York City dropped a familiar vulgarity about Joe Biden while walking by a Fox News reporter on the street.
Fox News correspondent David Lee Miller was standing in Times Square explaining event cancellations brought on by news of the mild Omicron variant when a passerby shouted, “Fuck Joe Biden!”
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" readability="4.6969696969697">
Passersby drop the f-bomb directed at Joe Biden while walking through a Fox News interview on the street in New York City. <a href="https://t.co/Fp1pAulhkZ">pic.twitter.com/Fp1pAulhkZ</a>
— Townhall.com (@townhallcom) <a href="https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1473041780207726594?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 20, 2021</a></blockquote>
Miller glanced at the couple in response as they walked by then continued his reporting.
This isn’t the only anti-Biden remark captured on video today.
In Washington, someone cut into House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s speech by shouting “Let’s Go Brandoooon! USA! USA!”
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" readability="3.5761589403974">
Pelosi is interrupted by a protestor yelling "Let's go Brandon!" <a href="https://t.co/0JNtTQwCzO">pic.twitter.com/0JNtTQwCzO</a>
— The Post Millennial (@TPostMillennial) <a href="https://twitter.com/TPostMillennial/status/1473002339816689671?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 20, 2021</a></blockquote>
This comes after Biden threatened that unvaccinated Americans would face “severe illness and death” this winter if they don’t take the COVID injection.
<div class="NlOa3B1c"><a href="https://www.infowarsstore.com/specials-clearance/christmas-super-sale?ims=rhqde&utm_campaign=christmassale&utm_source=infowars+top+banner&utm_medium=banner&utm_content=topbannerchristmas" target="_blank"><img src="https://api.directus.libertycdn.com/uploads/_/originals/ChristmasSuperSale-hero-385.jpg" /></a></div>
Biden is set to announce further COVID restrictions on Tuesday as more and more vaccinated people – <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/crow-warren-booker-test-positive-for-breakthrough-covid-19/ar-AARZE7m?ocid=uxbndlbing" target="_blank">including double-vaxxed and boosted U.S. senators</a> – are contracting the mild Omicron variant.
According to an NPR/PBS poll <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2021/dec/20/joe-bidens-approval-rating-sinks-new-low-year-ends/" target="_blank">released</a> Monday, Biden’s approval hit an all-time low of 41%, with independents now at 29% approval for the puppet president.
<hr class="wp-block-separator" />
<a href="https://freeworldnews.tv/watch?id=61ba9189d80fae228ad5481f" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Joe Biden Interrupts George Michael Concert To Trash Freedom</a>
 
 
source <a href="https://www.infowars.com/posts/passersby-shout-f-joe-biden-during-live-fox-news-interview-in-new-york-city">https://www.infowars.com/posts/passersby-shout-f-joe-biden-during-live-fox-news-interview-in-new-york-city</a>

news Passersby Shout ‘F*** Joe Biden!’ During Live Fox News Interview in New York City

A couple in New York City dropped a familiar vulgarity about Joe Biden while walking by a Fox News reporter on the street. Fox News corresp...

Infowars Photobomb Challenge: $5000 Bounty to Drop Truth About COVID Takeover on Live TV!

<div><img class="ff-og-image-inserted" src="https://api-assets.infowars.com/2021/12/joens928347889.jpg" /></div>
As vaccine mandates grow increasingly tyrannical, Infowars is issuing a new challenge calling on people to photo bomb corrupt mainstream media fake news broadcasts in order to wake the public.
In the spirit of our successful 2016 contest, where we urged activists to exercise their First Amendment at Hillary Clinton events by calling attention to Bill Clinton’s history of rape in exchange for $5,000, Alex Jones is once again issuing a $5,000 bounty to call out the Covid scam while simultaneously plugging “Infowars dot com” on live TV.
“But what should the sayings be?” Jones pondered during a broadcast last week, going on to recommend slogans like, “‘Fauci created the virus – Infowars dot com,’ or ‘The vaccine gives you cancer – Infowars dot com,’ or ‘The vaccine gives you heart attacks – Infowars dot com.'”
“‘Whatever it is – Infowars dot com’ – $5,000 bounty,” Jones instructed.
The rules are simple:
<ol>
<li>Get on live national, or international live TV, legally and lawfully, with a quick COVID tyranny wake-up slogan of your choice and say “Infowars dot com.”</li>
<li>Send the entry to us via <a href="https://www.infowars.com/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection" class="__cf_email__" data-cfemail="2e4d41405a4b5d5a6e47404841594f5c5d004d4143">[email protected]</a>, <a href="https://www.infowars.com/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection" class="__cf_email__" data-cfemail="d6a5beb9a1a2bfa6a596bfb8b0b9a1b7a4a5f8b5b9bb">[email protected]</a>, or <a href="https://www.infowars.com/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection" class="__cf_email__" data-cfemail="0e7c616c6a4e67606861796f7c7d206d6163">[email protected]</a>.</li>
</ol>
Jones has set a cap of $300,000 in prize giveaways, giving 60 lucky photo-bombers a chance to get $5,000 each.
The contest was inspired by an <a href="https://www.infowars.com/posts/man-video-bombs-covid-news-cast-stop-lying-to-the-world/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">unknown Australian bystander who shouted at reporters</a> for lying about the pandemic, telling them to “Stop lying to the world.”
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" readability="4.719696969697">
“Stop lying to the world”
Fantastic video bomb. <a href="https://t.co/kxvRSQUkeN">pic.twitter.com/kxvRSQUkeN</a>
— The Juggernaut (@TheJuggernaut88) <a href="https://twitter.com/TheJuggernaut88/status/1471098989927755776?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 15, 2021</a></blockquote>
RELATED: <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://www.infowars.com/posts/passersby-shout-f-joe-biden-during-live-fox-news-interview-in-new-york-city" target="_blank">Passersby Shout ‘F*** Joe Biden!’ During Live Fox News Interview in New York City</a>
<hr class="wp-block-separator" />
 
 
source <a href="https://www.infowars.com/posts/infowars-photobomb-challenge-5000-bounty-to-interrupt-live-news-broadcast">https://www.infowars.com/posts/infowars-photobomb-challenge-5000-bounty-to-interrupt-live-news-broadcast</a>

news Infowars Photobomb Challenge: $5000 Bounty to Drop Truth About COVID Takeover on Live TV!

As vaccine mandates grow increasingly tyrannical, Infowars is issuing a new challenge calling on people to photo bomb corrupt mainstream me...