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When Will Covid End? What Experts Predict On Next 6 Months

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Coronavirus: Experts believe that the world is unlikely to eradicate the virus completely.
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<h3>Highlights</h3>
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<li>Brace for more of what we've already been through, experts say</li>
<li>Outbreaks will close schools and cancel classes</li>
<li>Vaccinated nursing home residents will face renewed fears of infection</li>
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For anyone hoping to see light at the end of the Covid-19 tunnel over the next three to six months, scientists have some bad news: Brace for more of what we've already been through.
Outbreaks will close schools and cancel classes. Vaccinated nursing home residents will face renewed fears of infection. Workers will weigh the danger of returning to the office as hospitals are overwhelmed, once again.
Almost everyone will be either infected or vaccinated before the pandemic ends, experts agree. Maybe both. An unlucky few will contract the virus more than once. The race between the waves of transmission that lead to new variants and the battle to get the globe inoculated won't be over until the coronavirus has touched all of us.
"I see these continued surges occurring throughout the world," said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis, and an adviser to U.S. President Joe Biden. "Then it will drop, potentially somewhat precipitously," he said. "And then I think we very easily could see another surge in the fall and winter" of this year, he added.
With billions of people around the world yet to be vaccinated and little chance now of eliminating the virus, we can expect more outbreaks in classrooms, on public transport and in workplaces over the coming months, as economies push ahead with reopening. Even as immunization rates rise, there will always be people who are vulnerable to the virus: Newborn babies, people who can't or won't get inoculated, and those who get vaccinated but suffer breakthrough infections as their protection levels ebb.
The next few months will be rough. One key danger is if a vaccine-resistant variant develops, although it is not the only risk ahead. In the coming months, Bloomberg will explore the pandemic's long-term impact on economies and markets, the pharmaceutical industry, travel and more.
"We're going to see hills and valleys, at least for the next several years as we get more vaccine out. That's going to help. But the challenge is going to be: How big will the hills and valleys be, in terms of their distance?" Osterholm said. "We don't know. But I can just tell you, this is a coronavirus forest fire that will not stop until it finds all the human wood that it can burn."
Covid Compared to Other Pandemics
The five well-documented influenza pandemics of the past 130 years offer some blueprint for how Covid might play out, according to Lone Simonsen, an epidemiologist and professor of population health sciences at Roskilde University in Denmark. She is an expert on the ebb and flow of such events.
While the longest global flu outbreak lasted five years, they mostly consisted of two to four waves of infection over an average of two or three years, she said. Covid is already shaping up to be among the more severe pandemics, as its second year concludes with the world in the middle of a third wave and no end in sight.
It's possible that the virus known as SARS-CoV-2 won't follow the path set by the pandemics of the past. After all, it is a different, novel and potentially more transmissible pathogen. And with a death count of more than 4.6 million people so far, it's already more than twice as deadly as any outbreak since the 1918 Spanish flu.
Despite brutal initial waves and relatively high vaccination rates, countries including the U.S., U.K., Russia and Israel are flirting with record numbers of cases. Immunization is helping to moderate incidences of severe cases and deaths, but surging infections mean the virus is reaching the young and others who remain unvaccinated, leading to rising rates of serious disease in those groups.
Nations where vaccination has been sparse including Malaysia, Mexico, Iran and Australia- are in the midst of their biggest outbreaks yet, fueled by the contagious delta strain. With the virus still spreading out of control in vast swathes of the planet, another novel variant could quite feasibly emerge.
History shows the commonly held belief that viruses automatically get milder over timeto avoid completely wiping out their host population is wrong, according to Simonsen. Although new mutations aren't always more severe than their predecessors, "pandemics can in fact get more deadly during the pandemic period, as the virus is adapting to its new host," she said.
Early in the Covid outbreak, there was good reason to hope that vaccines would provide long-term protection, much like childhood shots that stop diseases such as polio.
Coronaviruses have a "proof-reading" mechanism that fixes the in-born errors caused when the virus replicates, reducing the likelihood of variants emerging when the virus is transmitted from one person to another.
The number of global cases has been so vast, however, that mutations are occurring anyway.
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Coronavirus: The number of mutations has increase the Covid cases in the world.
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"With the pandemic, we have this enormous force of infection," said Kanta Subbarao, director of the WHO Collaborating Center for Reference and Research on Influenza at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity in Melbourne. "That has counterbalanced the ability of the virus to proof-read."
As a result, Covid could be like the flu, requiring regular vaccine top-ups to remain effective as the virus evolves.
Some researchers say SARS-CoV-2 is poised to become completely resistant to the first generation of vaccines. A study from Japan, which has yet to be published or peer-reviewed, suggests that potentially dangerous mutations in the delta variant are already being picked up in a global database used to track such developments. Reports of current strains breaking through vaccinations or triggering higher fatality rates have not held up to rigorous scrutiny thus far.
"This is a scenario we hope won't happen," Simonsen said. "My God, we would have to do it all again."
Other even grimmer possibilities for the coming months include the emergence of a novel influenza virus or another coronavirus making the leap from animals into humans.
"As long as there are animal reservoirs of coronavirus there is still the possibility that another zoonotic coronavirus could emerge in the future," Subbarao said. "There is that in the background, the risk of still dealing with this one when another one emerges."
How Will Covid End?
What seems clear is that the pandemic will not be over in six months. Experts generally agree that the current outbreak will be tamed once most people perhaps 90% to 95% of the global population have a degree of immunity thanks to immunization or previous infection.
The key element should be vaccination, they say.
"Without vaccination, one is like a sitting duck, because the virus will spread widely and find most everybody this autumn and winter," said Simonsen.
More than 5.66 billion doses of vaccine have been administered around the world, according to Bloomberg's vaccine tracker. But the success of rollouts in some regions, such as the European Union, North America and China, masks the failure in others. Most countries in Africa have only given enough vaccine to cover less than 5% of their populations with a two-dose shot. India has administered enough to cover only about 26%.
The pandemic will end at different times in different places, just as previous outbreaks have, said Erica Charters, associate professor of the history of medicine at Oxford University and the coordinator of a project on how epidemics end. Governments will have to decide how much of the disease they are comfortable living with, she said.
Approaches vary. While some countries are still shooting for zero Covid cases, the world is unlikely to eradicate the virus completely.
Nations like Denmark and Singapore, which have managed to keep cases relatively contained, are already moving toward a post-pandemic future with fewer safety restrictions. Others, such as the U.S. and U.K., are opening up even as infection numbers near records. Meanwhile, China, Hong Kong and New Zealand have vowed to keep vigilantly working to eliminate the virus locally. As a result, they are likely to be among the last places to leave behind the disruption wrought by walling out the pandemic.
 
 
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Coronavirus: Experts believe that the world is unlikely to eradicate the virus completely. Highlights Brace for more of what we'v...

Jill Biden, Prince Harry To Host Event For Wounded US Military Veterans

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US First Lady Jill Biden will host an event along with Britain's Prince Harry for US war veterans. (File)
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Washington:
US First Lady Jill Biden will host a virtual event along with Britain's Prince Harry for athletes involved in the Warrior Games, an event for wounded US military veterans, the White House said late Sunday.
The US Department of Defense Warrior Games, first held in 2010, is normally an annual event "that celebrates the resiliency and dedication of wounded, ill, and injured active duty and veteran US military Service members," the Office of the First Lady said in a statement.
The 2021 Warrior Games were scheduled to start this week in Orlando, Florida, "but were canceled to ensure the health and safety of the athletes and their families due to COVID-related concerns," the statement read.
Prince Harry, a combat veteran who served two tours in Afghanistan, is founder of The Invictus Games, a multi-national sports event for wounded service members and veterans. He first attended the Warrior Games in 2013 in Colorado.
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Ken Fisher, head of the Fisher House Foundation -- which provides housing for families of patients receiving medical care at military and Veterans Affairs medical centers -- will also be at the virtual event.
Biden, Prince Harry, Austin and Fisher had planned to be at the games in person before they were cancelled.
Jill Biden's stepson, the late Beau Biden, was a US army veteran and served one year in Iraq during the war.
The First Lady "has a long history of supporting the adaptive sporting community through Joining Forces, the White House initiative to support military and veteran families, caregivers, and survivors," the statement read.
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
 
 
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US First Lady Jill Biden will host an event along with Britain's Prince Harry for US war veterans. (File) Washington: US First Lady...

A Billionaire, A Cancer Survivor: Who Will Be On The Next SpaceX Mission

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The crew vehicle is set for blastoff from NASA's Kennedy Space Center on Wednesday.
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Washington:
For the first time on Wednesday, <a href="https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/spacex-to-send-first-all-civilian-crew-into-orbit-for-3-days-2538515" target="_self">SpaceX is due to send into orbit a crew</a> made up entirely of complete novices, without a professional astronaut on board.
The four passengers are supposed to embody the opening-up of space to everyone, giving the mission its name: Inspiration4.
A billionaire, Jared Isaacman, is behind the project. It was he who chartered the mission, at his own expense, inviting three anonymous people to join him, via a rather original selection process. Each seat has been assigned to represent a specific value.
Jared Isaacman, billionaire pilot
Isaacman is the mission commander.
The 38-year-old American is the founder and CEO of Shift4 Payments, which offers stores and restaurants a service for processing bank card transactions.
He created it when he was 16, from the basement of the family home.
Passionate about piloting, he holds a record for flying around the world in a light jet and is qualified to fly several military aircraft. In 2012, he founded a company providing training to US Air Force pilots, called Draken International.
A married father of two daughters, he has always been passionate about space exploration.
In 2008, he witnessed the takeoff, aboard a Russian rocket in Kazakhstan, of one of the first private tourists to visit the International Space Station, Richard Garriott. It was after that experience that he contacted SpaceX.
His seat represents "leadership."
Hayley Arceneaux, cancer survivor
Arceneaux was treated for bone cancer as a child at St. Jude's Hospital in Memphis, Tennessee, for which Jared Isaacman organized a fundraiser. She works there today as a physician assistant.
At 29, she will be the youngest American to be sent into orbit around the Earth, and the first person with a prosthesis to go into space.
She will be the medical manager for the mission. Her seat represents "hope."
Sian Proctor, professor and astronaut candidate
Proctor, 51, teaches geology at a small college in Arizona.
Born in Guam, her father worked at NASA during the Apollo missions. She participated in an experiment in Hawaii simulating life on Mars, and twice applied to NASA to become an astronaut.
In 2009, she was among a few dozen finalists out of more than 3,500 candidates. She will be only the fourth African American woman to go into space.
She will be the pilot of the mission, assisting the commander.
She won her seat, which represents "prosperity," by creating an online sales site linked to space, as part of an entrepreneurial competition organized by Isaacman's company.
Chris Sembroski, Air Force vet
A 42-year-old US Air Force veteran who served in Iraq, Sembroski now works in the aeronautics industry, for Lockheed Martin in Washington state.
He was selected after making a donation as part of a fundraiser for St. Jude's Hospital.
His seat represents "generosity." His role will be to help in managing the cargo on board, and communications with Earth.
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
 
 
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The crew vehicle is set for blastoff from NASA's Kennedy Space Center on Wednesday. Washington: For the first time on Wednesday, Sp...

Watch: Britney Spears Announces Engagement To Boyfriend Sam Asghari

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Pop singer Britney Spears announced her engagement to her boyfriend Sam Asghari.
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Los Angeles:
Pop princess Britney Spears on Sunday announced her engagement to her boyfriend Sam Asghari via social media.
Spears, 39, showed off a diamond ring in an Instagram micro-video post and wrote "I can't f***ing believe it!!!!!!!"
By her side in the video is her boyfriend -- now fiance -- Sam Asghari, whom she turns to and kisses on the cheek.
"Look at that -- you like it?" Asghari, 27, asks.
"Yeah!" Spears squeals in delight.
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Congratulations poured in and over 1.6 million people had liked the post by Sunday night.
"Congratulations love!! So happy for you! Welcome to the club!" said celebrity heiress Paris Hilton in a comment on the video.
Asghari's Instagram page has a simple picture of him kissing Spears as she lifts her hand -- and ring finger -- to show off her new bling.
Spears and Asghari met in 2016 when they co-starred in a music video for her single "Slumber Party."
Spears has two children with former husband rapper Kevin Federline, and had a brief Las Vegas marriage to childhood friend Jason Alexander that was annulled after just 55 hours.
The star rocketed to fame in her teens with hits like "...Baby One More Time," but suffered a highly public 2007 breakdown, attacking a paparazzo's car at a gas station.
That led to her being placed under a court-ordered conservatorship largely governed by her father, Jamie Spears.
She swiftly returned to performing, released three albums, appeared on various television shows and even took up a Las Vegas residency.
But in January 2019, she abruptly announced she was suspending her performances until further notice, and became increasingly vocal about the conservatorship.
In July she launched a bid to remove her father from the 13-year guardianship that she said amounted to "abuse," and in early September Jamie Spears filed a petition to end the conservatorship.
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
 
 
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Pop singer Britney Spears announced her engagement to her boyfriend Sam Asghari. Los Angeles: Pop princess Britney Spears on Sunday ann...

Chinese City Suspends Schools, Flights As Typhoon Approaches

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Shanghai also suspended subway services on some lines serving its southern districts.
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Shanghai:
Authorities in Shanghai and neighbouring coastal regions cancelled flights, and suspended schools, subways and trains as Typhoon Chanthu approached mainland China after drenching Taiwan.
The storm, with winds of more than 170 kilometres per hour near its eye, had been downgraded from a super typhoon to a strong typhoon on Sunday evening and was expected to gradually weaken, Shanghai city authorities said in a post on their official WeChat account.
But it was still expected to bring strong winds and heavy rain to coastal regions.
The province of Zhejiang near Shanghai raised its emergency response to the highest level on Sunday, closing schools and suspending flights and rail services in some cities, the official Xinhua news service reported.
Zhejiang also issued red alerts for flash floods in nine districts.
In Shanghai, home to about 26 million people, all flights at the city's larger Pudong International Airport were to be cancelled from 11 am local time (0300 GMT), while flights from the smaller Hongqiao airport in the west of the city were to be cancelled from 3 pm, the Shanghai government announced on WeChat.
The city also suspended subway services on some lines serving the city's southern districts, and said parks, outdoor tourist attractions and playgrounds would be closed on Monday and Tuesday. Classes were also due to be suspended on Monday afternoon and Tuesday.
Official forecasts called for rainfall of 250-280 millimetres in some areas of southeastern Jiangsu province, Shanghai and northeastern Zhejiang.
Taiwan downgraded typhoon Chanthu to a medium typhoon on Saturday. The storm did not make direct landfall on the island.
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
 
 
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Shanghai also suspended subway services on some lines serving its southern districts. Shanghai: Authorities in Shanghai and neighbourin...

F*CK JOE BIDEN!

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Americans are drowning in illegal overreach on the 20th Anniversary of 9/11, as the Patriot Act morphed into Section 702 of the <a rel="noreferrer noopener" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FISA_Amendments_Act_of_2008" target="_blank">FISA Amendments Act of 2008</a>, unleashing the NSA’s Prism program that has now turned Sauron’s eye on any dissenting American in the land pseudo-freedom.
Biden’s tyrannical speech was a wake-up call. Time is running out. The New World Order has established itself.
We have all become accustomed to Biden’s lies. Most of us are well aware that Trump’s economy saw the unemployment rate hit a 50-year low, income growth doubled, The Dow Jones Average increased by more than 10,000 points, the GDP skyrocketed  along with consumer confidence and the economic expansion grew into the longest in American history — while Biden just had one of the most dismal jobs numbers months in recent memory.
And former Presidents deem a quarter of the population of American citizens domestic terrorists, while an insane Foreign asset has been installed as our President: A puppet who has left, according to private groups trying to get Americans out of Afghanistan, upwards of 50,000 Americans and their allies behind.
He also allowed the installation of Al Qaeda into Cabinet positions within the new Afghanistan Government, and hung an ‘open for terrorism’ sign on our southern border while terrorizing 100 million Americans back home with Vaccine Mandates. What could go wrong?
 
 
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Americans are drowning in illegal overreach on the 20th Anniversary of 9/11, as the Patriot Act morphed into Section 702 of the FISA Amend...