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How a major oil pipeline got held for ransom

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Hackers have used a ransomware attack to shut a major American oil pipeline down for several days, forcing the Biden administration to declare a regional state of emergency to keep some of the oil supply moving until the pipeline can function again. The cyberattack looks to be the <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/colonial-pipeline-ransomware-attack/">largest ever</a> on an American energy system, and yet another example of cybersecurity vulnerabilities that President Biden has promised to address.
The Colonial Pipeline Company reported on May 7 that it was the victim of a “cybersecurity attack” that “involves ransomware,” forcing the company to take some systems offline and disabling the pipeline. The Georgia-based company <a href="https://www.colpipe.com/about-us/faqs">says</a> it operates the largest petroleum pipeline in the United States, carrying 2.5 million barrels a day of gasoline, diesel, heating oil, and jet fuel on its 5,500-mile route from Texas to New Jersey.
The pipeline provides nearly half of the East Coast’s fuel supply, and a prolonged shutdown could cause price increases and shortages to <a href="https://zetter.substack.com/p/biden-declares-state-of-emergency">ripple across the industry</a>. Colonial said on Monday that it hoped to “substantially restore” its operations by the end of the week and minimize disruption caused by the shutdown. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/05/10/colonial-pipeline-gas-oil-markets/">According to the Washington Post</a>, a weeklong stoppage could cause a small, temporary increase in gas prices.
The FBI <a href="https://www.fbi.gov/news/pressrel/press-releases/fbi-statement-on-compromise-of-colonial-pipeline-networks">has confirmed</a> that the ransomware used is linked to the hacker group called DarkSide, believed to be based in Eastern Europe. DarkSide does not appear to be linked to any nation-states, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/statement-suspected-us-pipeline-hackers-say-they-dont-want-cause-problems-2021-05-10/">saying in a statement</a> that “our goal is to make money, [not to create] problems for society” and that it is apolitical.
According to cybersecurity company Check Point, however, DarkSide supplies its ransomware services to its partners. “This means we know very little on the real threat actor behind the attack on Colonial, who can be any one of the partners of DarkSide,” Lotem Finkelstein, Check Point’s head of threat intelligence, told Recode. “What we do know is that to take down extensive operations like the Colonial pipeline reveals a sophisticated and well-designed cyber attack.”
It’s not known how much money the hackers are demanding, nor how much, if anything, Colonial has paid — assuming it’s willing to pay anything.
<a href="https://www.vox.com/new-money/2017/5/12/15632482/ransomware-explained">Ransomware attacks</a> generally use malware to lock companies out of their own systems until a ransom is paid. They’ve surged in the past few years and <a href="https://blog.emsisoft.com/en/38426/the-cost-of-ransomware-in-2021-a-country-by-country-analysis/">cost billions of dollars in ransoms</a> paid alone — not counting those that aren’t reported and any associated costs with having systems offline until the ransom is paid. Ransomware attacks have targeted everything from private businesses to the government to <a href="https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/10/29/21540039/hospital-ransomware-coronavirus-hacking-ryuk-malware">hospitals and health care systems</a>. The latter are especially attractive targets, given how urgent it is to get their systems back up as soon as possible.
<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-08/colonial-is-just-the-latest-energy-asset-hit-by-cyberattacks?sref=Wg6QzS2e">Energy systems and suppliers</a> have also been a target of ransomware and cyberattacks. The cybersecurity of America’s energy infrastructure has been a particular concern in recent years, with the Trump administration <a href="https://www.energy.gov/articles/president-trump-signs-executive-order-securing-united-states-bulk-power-system">declaring a national emergency</a> in May 2020 meant to secure America’s bulk power system with an executive order that would forbid the acquisition of equipment from countries that pose an “unacceptable risk to national security or the security and safety of American citizens.”
Details on how the hackers were able to gain access to Colonial’s systems haven’t been made public yet, but <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-09/colonial-hackers-stole-data-thursday-ahead-of-pipeline-shutdown">Bloomberg reports</a> that the attack began on May 6, with nearly 100 gigabytes of data stolen before Colonial’s computers were locked up. A ransom was demanded, both to stop the data from being leaked on the internet and to unlock the affected systems.
With the pipeline down, the company and its fuel suppliers are hoping that fuel trucks and possibly tankers will make up for some of the shortage. Emergency waivers were given by the Department of Transportation to <a href="https://www.transportation.gov/briefing-room/us-department-transportations-federal-motor-carrier-administration-issues-temporary">extend driver hours</a> for trucks and some companies are <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/valero-charters-tanker-gulf-coast-storage-amid-pipeline-outage-sources-2021-05-10/">looking into</a> chartering tankers to deliver the fuel by ship. The latter option would likely mean <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/9/27/16373484/jones-act-puerto-rico">waiving the Jones Act</a>, a 1920 law that requires domestic shipping to be done on ships that are built, owned, and operated by American citizens or permanent residents. This has been done for other temporary fuel crises, for example in the wake of Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Sandy. But these measures won’t be enough to fully replace the oil that the pipeline delivers.
Concern over the attack underscores two of the Biden administration’s stated priorities: improving American infrastructure and cybersecurity. The large-scale Russian <a href="https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/12/14/22174314/government-hack-solarwinds-cozybear-russia">SolarWinds hack</a>, disclosed in December 2020, was shown to have affected several federal government systems. Biden said then that as president, “my administration will make cybersecurity a top priority at every level of government — and we will make dealing with this breach a top priority from the moment we take office. ... I will not stand idly by in the face of cyber assaults on our nation.”
Biden has also unveiled a <a href="https://www.vox.com/2021/3/31/22357179/biden-two-trillion-infrastructure-jobs-plan-explained">$2 trillion infrastructure plan</a> that includes $100 billion to modernize the electrical grid, which cybersecurity experts hoped would <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/03/31/cybersecurity-202-here-how-biden-infrastructure-package-could-address-electric-grid-cybersecurity/">include</a> improved cybersecurity measures. Biden also suspended the Trump bulk power system executive order to roll out <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/04/20/cybersecurity-202-biden-administration-rolls-out-100-day-plan-improve-electric-grid-cybersecurity/">his own plan</a>. And he reportedly plans to unveil an executive order soon that will strengthen cybersecurity at federal agencies and for federal contractors.
But these measures are more focused on preventing another SolarWinds-like attack. Federal officials <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/09/us/politics/biden-cyberattack-response.html">told the New York Times</a> that they don’t think the order does enough to prevent a sophisticated attack, nor would it apply to a privately held company like Colonial. The oil pipeline attack might strengthen demands for cybersecurity standards for companies that play an important role in Americans’ lives. As it stands, it’s often left up to them about the security measures they use to protect critical systems.
“Ransomware is about extortion and extortion is about pressure,” James Shank, chief architect of community services at cybersecurity and threat intelligence company Team Cymru, told Recode. “Impacting fuel distribution gets peoples’ attention right away. ... This emphasizes the need for a coordinated effort that bridges public and private sector capabilities to protect our national interests.”
Assuming the pipeline is back up by the end of the week, it shouldn’t cause a major or prolonged disruption to the fuel supply chain or hit consumers’ wallets too hard. But the next one — and many cybersecurity experts fear there will be a next one, or several next ones — could be a lot worse if measures aren’t taken at the highest levels to prevent it.
“We cannot think of these attacks as impacting private companies only — this is an attack on our country’s infrastructure,” Shank added.
 
 
source <a href="https://www.vox.com/recode/22428774/ransomeware-pipeline-colonial-darkside-gas-prices">https://www.vox.com/recode/22428774/ransomeware-pipeline-colonial-darkside-gas-prices</a>

vox How a major oil pipeline got held for ransom

Hackers have used a ransomware attack to shut a major American oil pipeline down for several days, forcing the Biden administration to decl...

Facebook will push you to read articles before you share them

The next time you try to share an article without actually reading it first, Facebook might warn you to think again.
The social media company announced on Monday morning that, starting today, it will test a new feature prompting users to actually open and read articles before sharing them on the platform. Facebook will start testing the feature on around 6 percent of its global users on Android, a company spokesperson told Recode. Twitter started testing a similar feature in June of last year and rolled it out to all its users <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2020/9/25/21455635/twitter-read-before-you-tweet-article-prompt-rolling-out-globally-soon">more broadly in September</a>.
Facebook’s move is the latest example of social media companies trying to slow the <a href="https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/10/9/21509609/twitters-election-facebook-policies-misinformation-trump">rampant spread of misinformation and harmful content on their platforms</a> by nudging users to slow down before sharing content. Some social media researchers have long advocated for this kind of prompting, which they hope will minimize people reacting to a provocative headline without actually getting the fuller context of the story.
But since these features are relatively new, it’s unclear how much these interventions will actually work, or if people will just skip through prompts and share news without reading it anyway. And even if someone clicks on an article after Facebook asks them to, there’s no guarantee they will actually read the whole story — so this isn’t a complete fix.
Facebook announced the <a href="https://twitter.com/fbnewsroom/status/1391816265891778560">news on a company Twitter account on Monday</a>, including an image of what the prompt will look like.
If you open an article without clicking on it, Facebook will tell you the following:
“You’re about to share this article without opening it. Sharing articles without reading them may mean missing key facts.” The company will then prompt users to either open the article first, or continue sharing without reading.
Facebook did not immediately respond to a request for further comment, beyond clarifying the percent of users that will test the feature.
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<figcaption>Screenshot of the new prompts Facebook will warn users with.</figcaption>
<cite><a class="ql-link" href="https://twitter.com/fbnewsroom?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor" target="_blank">Facebook</a></cite></figure>
There are some early signs that even if features like this won’t entirely stop the spread of false information or polarizing content, they may help people at least read more context about the news of the day.
Back in September, Twitter <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2020/9/25/21455635/twitter-read-before-you-tweet-article-prompt-rolling-out-globally-soon">shared early insights after it started testing a similar feature</a> on its Android app. The data showed the prompts led people to open articles 40 percent more often.
Last week, Twitter also rolled out a feature to prompt people to reconsider tweeting “offensive or hurtful language.” And ahead of the 2020 US presidential election, both Twitter and Facebook started combating misleading information on their platforms by labeling politically misleading tweets and barring users from “Liking” or replying to those posts.
Social media companies have many levers they can pull to slow or stop the spread of harmful information and divisive rhetoric. Banning people outright — like Facebook and Twitter did with Donald Trump — is one of them, but it’s a controversial option, and in many cases, far too blunt a tool. Features like the one Facebook started testing Monday, which “nudge” users to stop sharing uninformed content, can potentially accomplish more by gradually shifting how people post on the platform — before they share divisive or misleading content.
 
 
source <a href="https://www.vox.com/2021/5/10/22429240/facebook-prompt-users-read-articles-before-sharing">https://www.vox.com/2021/5/10/22429240/facebook-prompt-users-read-articles-before-sharing</a>

vox Facebook will push you to read articles before you share them

The next time you try to share an article without actually reading it first, Facebook might warn you to think again. The social media compa...

Israel’s actions in East Jerusalem are a human rights test for Biden

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Weeks of violence in Jerusalem, sparked by Israel’s attempt to evict several Palestinian families from their homes in the Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood of East Jerusalem, have Democrats, activists, and experts calling on President Joe Biden to speak out forcefully against the American ally’s actions.
The problem is he and top members of his team are unlikely to — potentially missing an opportunity to stem the violence and avert a broader conflict.
For <a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/how-palestinians-put-aside-their-fear-and-rallied-behind-sheikh-jarrah-1.9777730">decades</a>, Israeli pro-settler organizations have aimed to push Palestinians in East Jerusalem out of their homes, dismantle their dwellings, and replace them with <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/jerusalem-sheikh-jarrah-occupation-aqsa/2021/05/09/822ce066-af68-11eb-82c1-896aca955bb9_story.html">hundreds of housing units</a> for Jews. It’s long been a source of simmering tension, and the anger grew to a boil in April as eviction cases continued in Israeli courts, leading <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/jerusalem-sheikh-jarrah-occupation-aqsa/2021/05/09/822ce066-af68-11eb-82c1-896aca955bb9_story.html">Israeli police to increase their presence</a> around the city and tussle with Palestinian protesters.
The standoff has produced troubling scenes, such as Israeli police on Saturday blocking <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/jerusalem-sheikh-jarrah-occupation-aqsa/2021/05/09/822ce066-af68-11eb-82c1-896aca955bb9_story.html">buses of Palestinians</a> traveling to pray at the al-Aqsa Mosque, Islam’s third-holiest site, for the holiest night of Ramadan.
But there was nothing like the crescendo of violence seen on Monday.
<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/10/world/middleeast/jerusalem-protests-aqsa-palestinians.html">Far-right Israelis</a> planned to march through the Muslim Quarter of Jerusalem’s Old City, a provocative annual tradition that celebrates the Israeli capture of East Jerusalem in the <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1961-1968/arab-israeli-war-1967">1967 Arab-Israeli</a> War — a day known in Israel as Jerusalem Day. But Palestinians don’t like the event because they claim East Jerusalem, which Israel annexed, as the future capital of their sovereign state.
Anger at the parade led to intensified conflict between Palestinians and Israeli authorities.
On Monday morning at <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/10/world/middleeast/jerusalem-protests-aqsa-palestinians.html">al-Aqsa Mosque</a>, stone-throwing Palestinians took on Israeli police firing rubber bullets and stun grenades. Roughly <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/10/world/middleeast/jerusalem-protests-aqsa-palestinians.html">330 Palestinians</a> were injured, local health officials said, with 250 hospitalized from the fight.
Then, on Monday evening, Hamas, the Islamist militant group that has ruled Gaza since 2007, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/middle-east-israel-jerusalem-076a9ec7e2bd9c065882c64a4ab820a1">fired seven rockets</a> into Israel — with some even setting off air raid sirens in Jerusalem. <a href="https://apnews.com/article/middle-east-israel-jerusalem-076a9ec7e2bd9c065882c64a4ab820a1">One rocket</a> reportedly fell just to the west of the capital, damaging some houses.
The threat of rocket fire was so real that Israel’s parliament, the <a href="https://twitter.com/rafsanchez/status/1391776522168590339?s=20">Knesset</a>, had to evacuate while in the middle of a session.
<a href="https://apnews.com/article/middle-east-israel-jerusalem-076a9ec7e2bd9c065882c64a4ab820a1">Abu Obeida</a>, a spokesperson for Hamas’s military wing, said the rocket attack was retaliation for what he called Israel’s “crimes and aggression.”
“This is a message the enemy has to understand well,” he continued. Hamas had given Israel until 6 pm local time to move its police forces out of the Aqsa mosque compound.
<a href="https://twitter.com/AAhronheim/status/1391825225206095873?s=20">Health officials in Gaza</a> afterward said explosions in the region killed <a href="https://twitter.com/AAhronheim/status/1391829496936943622?s=20">20 people</a>, including three children, and injured around 65 others. The <a href="https://twitter.com/IDF/status/1391809260787539968?s=20">Israeli military later confirmed</a> it had carried out strikes in Gaza.
<div>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
In response to the continuous rocket fire from the Gaza into Israel, we have now struck numerous Hamas terror targets in Gaza, including:
2 rocket launchers 
2 military posts 
8 Hamas terror operatives
Terror targets civilians. We target terror.
— Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) <a href="https://twitter.com/IDF/status/1391827345858830338?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 10, 2021</a></blockquote>
</div>
Though militants in Gaza sporadically fire rockets into Israel and are met in turn by Israeli airstrikes, the current tensions have some worried this latest exchange could be the beginning of a larger fight.
In a <a href="https://www.miamiherald.com/news/article251284074.html">speech</a>, Netanyahu accused Hamas of having crossed a “red line” with the latest rocket attacks and promised a tough response. “Whoever attacks us will pay a heavy price,” he said, warning that the fight could “continue for a while.”
The Biden administration has said it’s <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/biden-administration-concerned-about-escalating-violence-israel-psaki-2021-05-10/">concerned about the violence in Israel</a> and denounced Hamas’s rocket attacks as an “<a href="https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/1391823941921124353">unacceptable escalation</a>.” But some are calling on Biden to take a more forceful stance and condemn Israel’s actions in East Jerusalem.
That might not happen, though, as experts note the political costs of calling out Israel far outweigh the benefits of sticking to the president’s nominally human rights-centered foreign policy.
In February, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the Biden administration would place human rights at the “<a href="https://www.state.gov/putting-human-rights-at-the-center-of-u-s-foreign-policy/">center</a>” of US foreign policy. “The United States is committed to a world in which human rights are protected, their defenders are celebrated, and those who commit human rights abuses are held accountable,” he said.
Calling out Israel’s attempted eviction of Palestinians is the perfect time to show the administration means what it says, experts say.
“The world is watching; this issue is important,” said Shibley Telhami, the Anwar Sadat professor for peace and development at the University of Maryland. “The administration needs to show it isn’t all talk. They have to demonstrate this principle when it’s hard, not when it’s politically costless.”
The US has already made statements on the issue. Last Friday, State Department spokesperson <a href="https://www.state.gov/violence-in-jerusalem/">Ned Price</a> said, “We call on Israeli and Palestinian officials to act decisively to deescalate tensions and bring a halt to the violence.” Two days later, the White House published a readout of National Security Adviser <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/05/09/readout-from-nsc-spokesperson-emily-horne-on-national-security-advisor-jake-sullivans-call-with-israeli-national-security-advisor-meir-ben-shabbat-regarding-the-situation-in-jerusalem/">Jake Sullivan</a>’s call with his Israeli counterpart in which he said the administration has “serious concerns about the events in Jerusalem.”
But that’s too small a gesture for many, who say it’d be more significant for Biden — or at the very least Blinken or Sullivan — to denounce Israel’s actions on camera.
<a href="https://jstreet.org/press-releases/j-street-calls-for-immediate-strong-american-engagement-in-response-to-escalation-in-jerusalem-and-beyond/#.YJlvlWZKjpB">J Street</a>, an Israel-focused liberal advocacy group, released a Monday statement urging the Biden administration “to make clear publicly that Israeli efforts to evict and displace Palestinian families in East Jerusalem and the West Bank are completely unacceptable to the United States, as is the continued use of intimidation and violent, excessive force against Palestinian protesters and worshipers — especially during Ramadan.”
Some Democrats in Congress are also putting pressure on Biden.
Sen. <a href="https://twitter.com/ChrisVanHollen/status/1391211784699318276?s=20">Chris Van Hollen</a> (D-MD), a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, tweeted on Saturday: “If the Biden Administration puts the rule of law and human rights at the heart of its foreign policy, this is not a moment for tepid statements.” He also linked to a <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=27067&LangID=E">statement by the United Nations high commissioner for human rights</a> that said the evictions could be a “war crime.”
<div>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
As this makes clear, evictions of families in East Jerusalem would violate international law. If the Biden Administration puts the rule of law and human rights at the heart of its foreign policy, this is not a moment for tepid statements. 
<a href="https://t.co/BQbBZYhjuJ">https://t.co/BQbBZYhjuJ</a>
— Senator Chris Van Hollen (@ChrisVanHollen) <a href="https://twitter.com/ChrisVanHollen/status/1391211784699318276?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 9, 2021</a></blockquote>
</div>
Sen. <a href="https://twitter.com/SenSanders/status/1391098698655047680?s=20">Bernie Sanders</a> (I-VT), a progressive leader in Congress, tweeted something similar: “The United States must speak out strongly against the violence by government-allied Israeli extremists in East Jerusalem and the West Bank, and make clear that the evictions of Palestinian families must not go forward.
Lawmakers in the House, including “Squad” members <a href="https://twitter.com/aoc/status/1391115189458804739">Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/AyannaPressley/status/1391224830255632384">Ayanna Pressley</a>, and <a href="https://twitter.com/RashidaTlaib/status/1390489770841739265">Rashida Tlaib</a> — a Palestinian American — also backed the Palestinian cause.
Biden and other prominent members of his administration so far haven’t openly blasted Israel, instead choosing to condemn the actions of both sides. The University of Maryland’s Telhami said there were good reasons for that, namely that Biden needs Jerusalem’s support to reenter the Iran nuclear deal and the fact that the Israeli-Palestinian issue isn’t top of mind for most Americans.
Still, he said, “the problem here is the public profile. When something like this happens, you have to put your foot down.”
But the administration is unlikely to, the Middle East Institute’s Khaled Elgindy told me. If they were going to denounce the Israeli government harshly, he said “they would’ve done it by now. Why would they suddenly have a moment of clarity?”
Experts said there were other ways Washington could rebuke Jerusalem, such as sanctioning Israel or curbing weapons sales, but none expect any of that will happen. When it comes to the US defending human rights, “Palestine is usually the exception,” said Elgindy, who served as an adviser to Palestinian leadership from 2004 to 2009. “Who’s going to push the Israelis on human rights? It’s not going to be the US.”
While inaction is expected, it’s no less problematic, he continued. With no one forcefully and openly calling for an end to the violence, the situation “could very quickly escalate to something that looks like <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/11/14/18092434/israel-gaza-war-2014-rocket-raid-netanyahu-hamas">2014</a>.” A fight that year between Israel and Hamas saw more than <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20140913014525/http://www.ochaopt.org/documents/ocha_opt_sitrep_04_09_2014.pdf">2,100 Palestinians</a> and <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20140913014525/http://www.ochaopt.org/documents/ocha_opt_sitrep_04_09_2014.pdf">71 Israelis</a> killed while over 10,000 people — mostly Palestinians — sustained injuries.
If that happens, Elgindy concluded, the US “will have no choice but to get involved.” The irony there is it’s possible Biden’s inaction now could see him wade deeper into a growing conflict down the line.
Israel is already showing no sign of backing down. “Israel has no other choice but to defend its citizens from these indiscriminate attacks,” Gilad Erdan, Israel’s ambassador to the US, said in a Monday statement.
And neither is Hamas. Obeida, the spokesperson, said more attacks will come if Israel goes into the Aqsa mosque area again or evicts Palestinian families.
 
 
source <a href="https://www.vox.com/2021/5/10/22428819/israel-palestine-jerusalem-mosque-violence-biden">https://www.vox.com/2021/5/10/22428819/israel-palestine-jerusalem-mosque-violence-biden</a>

vox Israel’s actions in East Jerusalem are a human rights test for Biden

Weeks of violence in Jerusalem, sparked by Israel’s attempt to evict several Palestinian families from their homes in the Sheikh Jarrah nei...

A new report complicates simplistic narratives about race and the 2020 election

In the days and weeks after presidential election results come in, commentators attempting to figure out what happened with voter demographics are often in a fog — forced to rely on unreliable exit polls. More rigorous analysis simply takes longer.
Now, Catalist, a Democratic data firm, has put out a report on “<a href="https://catalist.us/wh-national/">What Happened in 2020</a>,” authored by Yair Ghitza and Jonathan Robinson, which makes a serious attempt to answer that question. The report is superior to the exit polls because it’s based in their research for what’s known as a “voter file.” Basically, they’ve put together a large database of turnout information about actual voters, assembled from state or local records about who actually showed up.
That information has its limits — it’s a secret ballot, so we don’t know who specific people voted for. But this information can be supplemented with precinct-level vote results, census information, and survey findings. The Catalist authors put all this together to estimate how different demographics voted. Some of their general findings about what changed since 2016:
<ul>
<li>Biden’s share of votes by Latinos decreased by 8 percentage points compared to Hillary Clinton’s, and his share of votes by Black people decreased by 3 percentage points.</li>
<li>Biden’s share of white voters without a college degree improved about 1 percentage point as compared to Clinton.</li>
<li>Biden’s share of white voters with a college degree improved by about 4 percentage points from Clinton’s.</li>
</ul>
But the report doesn’t just look at the narrow question of what changed in each group; it helps us understand the two parties’ coalitions as a whole. For instance, it drives home the fact that the non-college white population, while declining as a share of the electorate, remains quite large (they were about 44 percent of all voters in 2020), and Trump won 63 percent of them. And though Biden performed worse among Black voters than Clinton or Obama, he still won about 90 percent of that group.
One note here is that, for the sake of allowing easy year-to-year comparisons, these percentages are calculated by looking only at votes cast for either the Democratic or Republican nominees, rather than for third-party candidates. This is called the two-way vote share — Catalist’s report focused on this metric, so all of this article’s references to demographic vote percentage will use it as well.
Much attention has been paid to the shift of white college-educated voters toward Biden and Latino voters toward Trump in 2020, which makes sense — as a table from Catalist shows, those were particularly dramatic shifts.
<h4>Two-Way (Democrat vs. Republican) Support for Democratic Candidates, 2012-2020</h4>
<figure class="e-image"><picture class="c-picture" data-cid="site/picture_element-1620712781_9002_237001" data-cdata='{"asset_id":22504088,"ratio":"*"}'><source srcset="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/gvf__XyaPdWYF4v0Rccx9jso4zU=/0x0:1039x550/320x0/filters:focal(0x0:1039x550):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504088/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_10.42.18_AM.jpg 320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/7oWhvuh6nMyqLpZGefXFcxhoYBY=/0x0:1039x550/520x0/filters:focal(0x0:1039x550):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504088/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_10.42.18_AM.jpg 520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/L5DN1H17Sam2av2-zzTBsS3TXFk=/0x0:1039x550/720x0/filters:focal(0x0:1039x550):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504088/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_10.42.18_AM.jpg 720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/GdAAwr0LCslPu8JxGA5eBmmv8Z4=/0x0:1039x550/920x0/filters:focal(0x0:1039x550):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504088/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_10.42.18_AM.jpg 920w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/4zkJnw9IlydH0kDfVNJlPSdynUo=/0x0:1039x550/1120x0/filters:focal(0x0:1039x550):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504088/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_10.42.18_AM.jpg 1120w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/rp15VHP4PtG9TG5e6fxitFe_jYQ=/0x0:1039x550/1320x0/filters:focal(0x0:1039x550):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504088/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_10.42.18_AM.jpg 1320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/6aXhJVEk3tlFqHBVZMkm6sfl54M=/0x0:1039x550/1520x0/filters:focal(0x0:1039x550):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504088/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_10.42.18_AM.jpg 1520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/YMO3lplz8VQThFLUjOrF9u4PLrg=/0x0:1039x550/1720x0/filters:focal(0x0:1039x550):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504088/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_10.42.18_AM.jpg 1720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/pV7ZYtrth7SgYR1HjI9HBPFckFk=/0x0:1039x550/1920x0/filters:focal(0x0:1039x550):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504088/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_10.42.18_AM.jpg 1920w" sizes="(min-width: 1221px) 846px, (min-width: 880px) calc(100vw - 334px), 100vw" type="image/webp" /> <img alt="" data-upload-width="1039" sizes="(min-width: 1221px) 846px, (min-width: 880px) calc(100vw - 334px), 100vw" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/L2iY9kl_ZvIr7SOunZQFeYfhwuo=/0x0:1039x550/1200x0/filters:focal(0x0:1039x550):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504088/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_10.42.18_AM.jpg" srcset="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/uQJs0G3fORF5AeYC2ALKQXPd-Wc=/0x0:1039x550/320x0/filters:focal(0x0:1039x550):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504088/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_10.42.18_AM.jpg 320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/FRmWTcaqIg33evcXko_bQO5jMv8=/0x0:1039x550/520x0/filters:focal(0x0:1039x550):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504088/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_10.42.18_AM.jpg 520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/aaDC31TqX6W7Eu7W2qCkdoq8_VU=/0x0:1039x550/720x0/filters:focal(0x0:1039x550):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504088/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_10.42.18_AM.jpg 720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ef2JZ4dvXeTKXV-RsNFN2NOb__I=/0x0:1039x550/920x0/filters:focal(0x0:1039x550):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504088/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_10.42.18_AM.jpg 920w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/iHI1THw9Ku6grT7TGkz8jgKVZj8=/0x0:1039x550/1120x0/filters:focal(0x0:1039x550):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504088/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_10.42.18_AM.jpg 1120w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/tS21k0Ci-xQvUQLsDfKVIrq5jxY=/0x0:1039x550/1320x0/filters:focal(0x0:1039x550):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504088/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_10.42.18_AM.jpg 1320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/KjJIhYr2R_y2ZuGZFpIRGKD5x28=/0x0:1039x550/1520x0/filters:focal(0x0:1039x550):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504088/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_10.42.18_AM.jpg 1520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/_0lSCOBg00L9y0GS-BtUEAY-IQA=/0x0:1039x550/1720x0/filters:focal(0x0:1039x550):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504088/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_10.42.18_AM.jpg 1720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/wG-oi8GpxwRQtRmv6nxJ-qBT1VM=/0x0:1039x550/1920x0/filters:focal(0x0:1039x550):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504088/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_10.42.18_AM.jpg 1920w" /></picture> <cite><a class="ql-link" href="https://catalist.us/wh-national/" target="_blank">Catalist</a></cite></figure>
But it’s also worth dwelling on a shift that didn’t happen in 2020 but could have been crucial — it looks like Trump did not continue to gain among white voters without a college degree. According to Catalist’s report, 36 percent of these voters supported Clinton, a 4-point drop from Obama’s performance in 2012. But Democrats did not continue to hemorrhage these voters in 2020 — Biden actually improved slightly, winning 37 percent of them.
This was crucial to Biden’s success for two main reasons. First, white non-college voters continue to make up a very large chunk of the electorate. Catalist estimates that their share of the electorate has been shrinking, but they still were 44 percent of all voters in 2020. And second, they make up an even larger share of the electorate in some key swing states.
<h4>Composition of the Electorate by Race, 2008-2020</h4>
<figure class="e-image"><picture class="c-picture" data-cid="site/picture_element-1620712781_7140_237002" data-cdata='{"asset_id":22504106,"ratio":"*"}'><source srcset="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/DLBCISxshUY1n8Sc4Y6TGnvG-AI=/0x0:1077x569/320x0/filters:focal(0x0:1077x569):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504106/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_10.51.38_AM.jpg 320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/7I-CsPRK3IMJhO9OTZ6YH04pxbQ=/0x0:1077x569/520x0/filters:focal(0x0:1077x569):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504106/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_10.51.38_AM.jpg 520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/OqwLgocXDAFtLmTQU65fRTZJ8sc=/0x0:1077x569/720x0/filters:focal(0x0:1077x569):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504106/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_10.51.38_AM.jpg 720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/wdrC9_Bwk_2-VfcE9LvsCP6JEDA=/0x0:1077x569/920x0/filters:focal(0x0:1077x569):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504106/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_10.51.38_AM.jpg 920w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/rzdGMSj5HkdHCXvAjy-dED55xZA=/0x0:1077x569/1120x0/filters:focal(0x0:1077x569):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504106/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_10.51.38_AM.jpg 1120w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/34qeHVnn0J2nWePPjdzvJGGGrto=/0x0:1077x569/1320x0/filters:focal(0x0:1077x569):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504106/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_10.51.38_AM.jpg 1320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/6OY6rq1eGpT5LwwejSoWDeSPGM8=/0x0:1077x569/1520x0/filters:focal(0x0:1077x569):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504106/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_10.51.38_AM.jpg 1520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/5e_GQ4MdDZXeyMPNtmNaalA5veU=/0x0:1077x569/1720x0/filters:focal(0x0:1077x569):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504106/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_10.51.38_AM.jpg 1720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Hc46voxhECH086FuravUYNmHv5E=/0x0:1077x569/1920x0/filters:focal(0x0:1077x569):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504106/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_10.51.38_AM.jpg 1920w" sizes="(min-width: 1221px) 846px, (min-width: 880px) calc(100vw - 334px), 100vw" type="image/webp" /> <img alt="" data-upload-width="1077" sizes="(min-width: 1221px) 846px, (min-width: 880px) calc(100vw - 334px), 100vw" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/TzfSLiJAcUw8FG8iHvTZLsig6pQ=/0x0:1077x569/1200x0/filters:focal(0x0:1077x569):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504106/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_10.51.38_AM.jpg" srcset="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/_RxANUPpNUVa6epAxlCg0M-e7sQ=/0x0:1077x569/320x0/filters:focal(0x0:1077x569):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504106/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_10.51.38_AM.jpg 320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ogPM1o5vCLTlLcT5gO9ueqPe-ow=/0x0:1077x569/520x0/filters:focal(0x0:1077x569):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504106/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_10.51.38_AM.jpg 520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/LHY4mGO8K3dHFojc-s0oV3j0l5I=/0x0:1077x569/720x0/filters:focal(0x0:1077x569):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504106/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_10.51.38_AM.jpg 720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/51Bp2cHo5NUoKHoWo_LKFTnuHiU=/0x0:1077x569/920x0/filters:focal(0x0:1077x569):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504106/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_10.51.38_AM.jpg 920w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/pnv6WvnRoQqqFz0PsYOM36pyuNA=/0x0:1077x569/1120x0/filters:focal(0x0:1077x569):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504106/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_10.51.38_AM.jpg 1120w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/EHDHQu0TZ4wOM5_wFuikXXRafIc=/0x0:1077x569/1320x0/filters:focal(0x0:1077x569):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504106/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_10.51.38_AM.jpg 1320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/2jKZ_gbOR9ej7eMf3W7yUqOMZnY=/0x0:1077x569/1520x0/filters:focal(0x0:1077x569):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504106/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_10.51.38_AM.jpg 1520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/AJ7tEYtIgs94VOvQzDVKPvw7zCc=/0x0:1077x569/1720x0/filters:focal(0x0:1077x569):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504106/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_10.51.38_AM.jpg 1720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/CXbOjmHEbjLOMnLem1Sw2y0mXGM=/0x0:1077x569/1920x0/filters:focal(0x0:1077x569):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504106/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_10.51.38_AM.jpg 1920w" /></picture> <cite><a class="ql-link" href="https://catalist.us/wh-national/" target="_blank">Catalist</a></cite></figure>
So the fact that Biden avoided Democrats’ recent trend of losing more and more white voters without a college degree was actually quite important in his victory. If he had won, say, 34 percent of them instead of the 37 percent he did win, he very well might not be president right now.
Furthermore, the shorthand of punditry often says Democrats win because of a coalition of nonwhite and college-educated white voters. But the below chart makes the point that non-college whites actually still make up an estimated 32 percent of overall votes cast for Biden. In comparison, Black and Latino voters together also comprised 32 percent of the overall votes for Biden. More than half the Trump coalition, in contrast, is comprised of non-college-educated white voters (and Trump’s coalition is 85 percent white overall).
<h4>Racial Composition of Biden and Trump Coalitions</h4>
<figure class="e-image"><picture class="c-picture" data-cid="site/picture_element-1620712781_4648_237003" data-cdata='{"asset_id":22504107,"ratio":"*"}'><source srcset="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/htThAuEwh3mYRgoRE69ixwlFVnQ=/0x0:1542x547/320x0/filters:focal(0x0:1542x547):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504107/Screen_Shot_2021_05_07_at_12.27.09_PM.jpg 320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/vxo5IEqSvnPu17EedHCJPSveFJ8=/0x0:1542x547/520x0/filters:focal(0x0:1542x547):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504107/Screen_Shot_2021_05_07_at_12.27.09_PM.jpg 520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/i9yLQ0imKIrBRp-3s6i26FtODHI=/0x0:1542x547/720x0/filters:focal(0x0:1542x547):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504107/Screen_Shot_2021_05_07_at_12.27.09_PM.jpg 720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/X7CP_cIgjE632hhF4J2kNdrd8qg=/0x0:1542x547/920x0/filters:focal(0x0:1542x547):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504107/Screen_Shot_2021_05_07_at_12.27.09_PM.jpg 920w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/uKR8lU18w6OYsjn-9apkEkOeaGI=/0x0:1542x547/1120x0/filters:focal(0x0:1542x547):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504107/Screen_Shot_2021_05_07_at_12.27.09_PM.jpg 1120w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/J5i7I4HiBsxq_tBeVRR_KoO1zkE=/0x0:1542x547/1320x0/filters:focal(0x0:1542x547):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504107/Screen_Shot_2021_05_07_at_12.27.09_PM.jpg 1320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/AWdjaSn2tKv6y73nIctkedlwYMA=/0x0:1542x547/1520x0/filters:focal(0x0:1542x547):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504107/Screen_Shot_2021_05_07_at_12.27.09_PM.jpg 1520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/cbcJOUjtvMNAc4Fr6E8JL8r7_Mw=/0x0:1542x547/1720x0/filters:focal(0x0:1542x547):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504107/Screen_Shot_2021_05_07_at_12.27.09_PM.jpg 1720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/i9052a8drPx1KAoP3K9e5K_1nck=/0x0:1542x547/1920x0/filters:focal(0x0:1542x547):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504107/Screen_Shot_2021_05_07_at_12.27.09_PM.jpg 1920w" sizes="(min-width: 1221px) 846px, (min-width: 880px) calc(100vw - 334px), 100vw" type="image/webp" /> <img alt="" data-upload-width="1542" sizes="(min-width: 1221px) 846px, (min-width: 880px) calc(100vw - 334px), 100vw" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/mPtV323l7KIbBdUNP5RtRc1x3u0=/0x0:1542x547/1200x0/filters:focal(0x0:1542x547):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504107/Screen_Shot_2021_05_07_at_12.27.09_PM.jpg" srcset="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/P4YIqG2kl8bQfAykcD0VounQle8=/0x0:1542x547/320x0/filters:focal(0x0:1542x547):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504107/Screen_Shot_2021_05_07_at_12.27.09_PM.jpg 320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/xe-l3BQcsbZkNIitm4_Yd9Dkji0=/0x0:1542x547/520x0/filters:focal(0x0:1542x547):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504107/Screen_Shot_2021_05_07_at_12.27.09_PM.jpg 520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/LjnWM1F-7ND5SJvom1Xk6k34Ze8=/0x0:1542x547/720x0/filters:focal(0x0:1542x547):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504107/Screen_Shot_2021_05_07_at_12.27.09_PM.jpg 720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Qi6KKNxIZoRSy5I8cpsNQhMSXCw=/0x0:1542x547/920x0/filters:focal(0x0:1542x547):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504107/Screen_Shot_2021_05_07_at_12.27.09_PM.jpg 920w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/7lEMiy1iriOJvVVIc9ArE4uFYYw=/0x0:1542x547/1120x0/filters:focal(0x0:1542x547):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504107/Screen_Shot_2021_05_07_at_12.27.09_PM.jpg 1120w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/WSZaFc_5s5L5UQSXiewK0PmFzK0=/0x0:1542x547/1320x0/filters:focal(0x0:1542x547):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504107/Screen_Shot_2021_05_07_at_12.27.09_PM.jpg 1320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/a9NKcMfAcKPYP_4o7ZuEGqD095k=/0x0:1542x547/1520x0/filters:focal(0x0:1542x547):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504107/Screen_Shot_2021_05_07_at_12.27.09_PM.jpg 1520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/khs0wvtoyTmbP87_qJSmDRyDlD4=/0x0:1542x547/1720x0/filters:focal(0x0:1542x547):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504107/Screen_Shot_2021_05_07_at_12.27.09_PM.jpg 1720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/cOwo3KbOjpvlAbL-XVPkPgh965k=/0x0:1542x547/1920x0/filters:focal(0x0:1542x547):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504107/Screen_Shot_2021_05_07_at_12.27.09_PM.jpg 1920w" /></picture> <cite><a class="ql-link" href="https://catalist.us/wh-national/" target="_blank">Catalist</a></cite></figure>
Simply put, there are a lot of white people in the United States of America, and a lot of them vote. And there’s no reason to just assume that Hillary Clinton’s performance among this group was the floor for how low Democrats can fall. As a comparison, in 2016 Trump’s share of the college-educated white vote dropped 4 points from Romney’s share of it in 2012 — and then, in 2020, it dropped another 4 points. But, per Catalist’s report, Biden averted further declines among non-college whites and slightly improved on Clinton’s performance.
Biden’s worsened performance among Latino voters as compared to past Democratic nominees has been much discussed since the election, and Catalist puts some numbers on just what happened there — the group estimates that Hillary Clinton won 71 percent of Latino voters in 2016, but Biden won 63 percent in 2020. This 8-point drop is the most dramatic shift in a four-year period among the major racial or ethnic groups seen in Catalist’s data.
This comes in the context of a massive increase in Latino turnout overall — while turnout was up across the board, it was particularly up among Latino (and Asian) voters, in what’s just an incredible increase in a four-year period.
<h4>Turnout Increase by Race, 2016-2020</h4>
<figure class="e-image"><picture class="c-picture" data-cid="site/picture_element-1620712781_809_237004" data-cdata='{"asset_id":22504112,"ratio":"*"}'><source srcset="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/z1FJfE2AXRbHU8YG9e3bHOV42jQ=/0x0:1086x713/320x0/filters:focal(0x0:1086x713):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504112/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_11.33.45_AM.jpg 320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/XLr7r61GTFX0ZM1ieliGN1nnfAg=/0x0:1086x713/520x0/filters:focal(0x0:1086x713):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504112/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_11.33.45_AM.jpg 520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/aJ8_W9REKpWVeF_6I3Fse93slZo=/0x0:1086x713/720x0/filters:focal(0x0:1086x713):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504112/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_11.33.45_AM.jpg 720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ay7ed7Z62X1ALupiFXlAbtc-o_0=/0x0:1086x713/920x0/filters:focal(0x0:1086x713):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504112/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_11.33.45_AM.jpg 920w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/4VB9k3klM4X4Cs9C5OX4TSoX2k8=/0x0:1086x713/1120x0/filters:focal(0x0:1086x713):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504112/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_11.33.45_AM.jpg 1120w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/PbJ0rNRIZpPi2_j7nQ4JVKC2X1o=/0x0:1086x713/1320x0/filters:focal(0x0:1086x713):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504112/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_11.33.45_AM.jpg 1320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/hSR_8QJGKRkgEZOYpQAIyaxkxT8=/0x0:1086x713/1520x0/filters:focal(0x0:1086x713):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504112/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_11.33.45_AM.jpg 1520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Jad9Fih76142DyACgqKW8Ww4PH8=/0x0:1086x713/1720x0/filters:focal(0x0:1086x713):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504112/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_11.33.45_AM.jpg 1720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/xFyNlT5UyyjwiqREEn-jY0f0Ma8=/0x0:1086x713/1920x0/filters:focal(0x0:1086x713):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504112/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_11.33.45_AM.jpg 1920w" sizes="(min-width: 1221px) 846px, (min-width: 880px) calc(100vw - 334px), 100vw" type="image/webp" /> <img alt="" data-upload-width="1086" sizes="(min-width: 1221px) 846px, (min-width: 880px) calc(100vw - 334px), 100vw" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/C0w9l5ciTNaZPKRJoJB5Se4zi9c=/0x0:1086x713/1200x0/filters:focal(0x0:1086x713):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504112/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_11.33.45_AM.jpg" srcset="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ry9fG8_-Zw7vOr0IV-CAhYx3vfQ=/0x0:1086x713/320x0/filters:focal(0x0:1086x713):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504112/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_11.33.45_AM.jpg 320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/cVG098c9V090S6e9fi5kgDjZWuU=/0x0:1086x713/520x0/filters:focal(0x0:1086x713):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504112/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_11.33.45_AM.jpg 520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/07aXyPF9Bz956BOTSLiK4j2tFao=/0x0:1086x713/720x0/filters:focal(0x0:1086x713):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504112/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_11.33.45_AM.jpg 720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/_DHbQNCZFbe2zZZhjVdQ31NhNSQ=/0x0:1086x713/920x0/filters:focal(0x0:1086x713):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504112/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_11.33.45_AM.jpg 920w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/U57OKYmvi12VuKH_36RkDlS-9SM=/0x0:1086x713/1120x0/filters:focal(0x0:1086x713):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504112/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_11.33.45_AM.jpg 1120w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/2wOF7Z4iNVQVQQL4tlh4K8zJ2z8=/0x0:1086x713/1320x0/filters:focal(0x0:1086x713):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504112/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_11.33.45_AM.jpg 1320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/-6l0xkSTbRTeqGjAlPiJmx-QJqo=/0x0:1086x713/1520x0/filters:focal(0x0:1086x713):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504112/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_11.33.45_AM.jpg 1520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/I-wf-SY6y3ys80e5_LK4kgX9P7I=/0x0:1086x713/1720x0/filters:focal(0x0:1086x713):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504112/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_11.33.45_AM.jpg 1720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/tZX2eGCFt0AFXHB2i9d1-kzRwH8=/0x0:1086x713/1920x0/filters:focal(0x0:1086x713):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504112/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_11.33.45_AM.jpg 1920w" /></picture> <cite><a class="ql-link" href="https://catalist.us/wh-national/" target="_blank">Catalist</a></cite></figure>
This turnout increase meant the Latino share of the electorate continued its trend of growth — Latino voters were 7 percent of the electorate in 2012, 9 percent in 2016, and 10 percent in 2020.
The turnout surge also raises a question — did Trump improve because previously voting Latinos switched from backing Democrats to backing Republicans, or were his gains mainly among new voters? Catalist doesn’t provide a definitive answer, but the authors say, “we see suggestive evidence that both of these factors played some role.”
In contrast to claims that Democrats’ worsening performance with Latinos was mainly concentrated among Cuban Americans in Florida, the report finds that the decline was broader — but that the drops were smaller in key states that Biden barely won, like Arizona and Georgia.
<h4>Decreases in Latino Democratic Support, 2016-2020</h4>
<figure class="e-image"><picture class="c-picture" data-cid="site/picture_element-1620712781_9237_237005" data-cdata='{"asset_id":22504122,"ratio":"*"}'><source srcset="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ZCwCHPoiiPATQ7uXVPJxobJ0pdg=/0x0:1061x980/320x0/filters:focal(0x0:1061x980):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504122/a.jpg 320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/EQjWBZ0aP840B-rEVHjZrAopcSE=/0x0:1061x980/520x0/filters:focal(0x0:1061x980):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504122/a.jpg 520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/vRs0QgR0yv1O8EghnJsq6Eba7vI=/0x0:1061x980/720x0/filters:focal(0x0:1061x980):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504122/a.jpg 720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/PMfA4fWVVZS-tLvw3YfTqKpYaho=/0x0:1061x980/920x0/filters:focal(0x0:1061x980):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504122/a.jpg 920w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ijWSTT8EN0DpwxQPyMyvk3RIRHA=/0x0:1061x980/1120x0/filters:focal(0x0:1061x980):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504122/a.jpg 1120w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Jihoj21E_teM3C_jUiS6gjZLNmM=/0x0:1061x980/1320x0/filters:focal(0x0:1061x980):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504122/a.jpg 1320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/tHKPxtfS-ysgjrFB2Qg2ocq8iWs=/0x0:1061x980/1520x0/filters:focal(0x0:1061x980):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504122/a.jpg 1520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/4eFsx8o0NDY-RfG2WwRUh9NSPXY=/0x0:1061x980/1720x0/filters:focal(0x0:1061x980):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504122/a.jpg 1720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/rRgknCM3_SZN7owumX3VJh5ZdHM=/0x0:1061x980/1920x0/filters:focal(0x0:1061x980):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504122/a.jpg 1920w" sizes="(min-width: 1221px) 846px, (min-width: 880px) calc(100vw - 334px), 100vw" type="image/webp" /> <img alt="" data-upload-width="1061" sizes="(min-width: 1221px) 846px, (min-width: 880px) calc(100vw - 334px), 100vw" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/gP8rBw4GMp4xxMUgg7XDgQ8aWWg=/0x0:1061x980/1200x0/filters:focal(0x0:1061x980):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504122/a.jpg" srcset="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Dmy0YaUbJ8aZ_Tl9GTAMk8nM4Dg=/0x0:1061x980/320x0/filters:focal(0x0:1061x980):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504122/a.jpg 320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/4JsedH_7k_j_ceJMPWs7k3LYZ78=/0x0:1061x980/520x0/filters:focal(0x0:1061x980):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504122/a.jpg 520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ufgkzCDxgt_2NliuR8J6sCrGeh8=/0x0:1061x980/720x0/filters:focal(0x0:1061x980):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504122/a.jpg 720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/cQ0Q7NhuB7XqDSV2AGVwFsi3NLI=/0x0:1061x980/920x0/filters:focal(0x0:1061x980):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504122/a.jpg 920w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/MlExY4BO_rAttBOk-EJCwPAnHiA=/0x0:1061x980/1120x0/filters:focal(0x0:1061x980):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504122/a.jpg 1120w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/2tFmrGoAbXA5oKVx1AM--7ebYTQ=/0x0:1061x980/1320x0/filters:focal(0x0:1061x980):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504122/a.jpg 1320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/uL9pb0urCgKh6WO2Y4VN5U1ZMcY=/0x0:1061x980/1520x0/filters:focal(0x0:1061x980):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504122/a.jpg 1520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/7cnznFIbBpBm1NuOJQLke9DcgEY=/0x0:1061x980/1720x0/filters:focal(0x0:1061x980):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504122/a.jpg 1720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/0H2dZaHCeSPHC6mPvfhiLbfjeRM=/0x0:1061x980/1920x0/filters:focal(0x0:1061x980):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504122/a.jpg 1920w" /></picture> <cite><a class="ql-link" href="https://catalist.us/wh-national/" target="_blank">Catalist</a></cite></figure>
“Mexicans are the largest Latino subgroup in most states across the country, and highly Mexican areas also showed a drop (6 points), albeit smaller than Cuban areas,” the authors write. “Puerto Rican, Dominican, and areas with other dominant groups were in the middle (8-9 point drop), close to the national average” drop among Latinos.
<h4>Decreases in Latino Democratic Support, 2016-2020</h4>
<figure class="e-image"><picture class="c-picture" data-cid="site/picture_element-1620712781_438_237006" data-cdata='{"asset_id":22504118,"ratio":"*"}'><source srcset="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/r3uuoSSn86bYSd0GpXeYo77eokM=/0x0:1061x980/320x0/filters:focal(0x0:1061x980):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504118/b.jpg 320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/BBAX7OXbWypTuJ4hgV_F8k7XDMI=/0x0:1061x980/520x0/filters:focal(0x0:1061x980):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504118/b.jpg 520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/tA5wAhI0Q6dbQvT-WhMrBMHzw0k=/0x0:1061x980/720x0/filters:focal(0x0:1061x980):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504118/b.jpg 720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/P0LutwQCVaKPi7FWF66h_Ql2_NE=/0x0:1061x980/920x0/filters:focal(0x0:1061x980):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504118/b.jpg 920w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/5F-vZHcq7kMx_NocCp5_2_q_M_0=/0x0:1061x980/1120x0/filters:focal(0x0:1061x980):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504118/b.jpg 1120w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/nPnDrJWK8DGoXvV5UbWwncT4-xU=/0x0:1061x980/1320x0/filters:focal(0x0:1061x980):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504118/b.jpg 1320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/0ybExPpacmpNV9IjZEO8GoNhcTs=/0x0:1061x980/1520x0/filters:focal(0x0:1061x980):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504118/b.jpg 1520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/MC0uXCu6r4os0GU8eiTTRe1SK5Y=/0x0:1061x980/1720x0/filters:focal(0x0:1061x980):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504118/b.jpg 1720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/NauW0rpiouFVYoASv_eyfpTYSFQ=/0x0:1061x980/1920x0/filters:focal(0x0:1061x980):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504118/b.jpg 1920w" sizes="(min-width: 1221px) 846px, (min-width: 880px) calc(100vw - 334px), 100vw" type="image/webp" /> <img alt="" data-upload-width="1061" sizes="(min-width: 1221px) 846px, (min-width: 880px) calc(100vw - 334px), 100vw" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/PctZ3sb1vJCBr7tmGB-lpdQ44J0=/0x0:1061x980/1200x0/filters:focal(0x0:1061x980):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504118/b.jpg" srcset="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/wq8cpTqEzjONtBuq-cDg1k4ggB8=/0x0:1061x980/320x0/filters:focal(0x0:1061x980):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504118/b.jpg 320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/LY0jqmYlc3Fv6uyE6KqgltHGASQ=/0x0:1061x980/520x0/filters:focal(0x0:1061x980):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504118/b.jpg 520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/tJEn6NANurEN-Vq14D-IFhdgfBY=/0x0:1061x980/720x0/filters:focal(0x0:1061x980):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504118/b.jpg 720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/LQ_RtragSG1YlvN-JRTBGMU_WWg=/0x0:1061x980/920x0/filters:focal(0x0:1061x980):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504118/b.jpg 920w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/flBsSR2jLGwFV7flb-BYiw14psw=/0x0:1061x980/1120x0/filters:focal(0x0:1061x980):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504118/b.jpg 1120w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/EUd3hshY_lzzt1CsHF0qpcH2B9Y=/0x0:1061x980/1320x0/filters:focal(0x0:1061x980):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504118/b.jpg 1320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/StQaJ3kI_orYZibOaU37EVLPgKo=/0x0:1061x980/1520x0/filters:focal(0x0:1061x980):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504118/b.jpg 1520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/kZR9CO4JknvxbrTOcTmp0007sEA=/0x0:1061x980/1720x0/filters:focal(0x0:1061x980):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504118/b.jpg 1720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/QCEU02KcSBhPU5hrFMOG8MvRkJ4=/0x0:1061x980/1920x0/filters:focal(0x0:1061x980):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504118/b.jpg 1920w" /></picture> <cite><a class="ql-link" href="https://catalist.us/wh-national/" target="_blank">Catalist</a></cite></figure>
If Democrats don’t find a way to reverse these declines, they’ll have a difficult time competing in Florida and Texas. But if this becomes a longer-term trend it could also imperil the party’s recent strength in Nevada and their very recent gains in Arizona.
Biden won an estimated 90 percent of the two-way vote among Black voters in 2020 — which is both an overwhelming win, and the worst performance for a Democrat among Black voters in over a decade. Clinton won 93 percent of the two-way vote among Black voters in 2016, and Obama won 97 percent in 2012.
The authors make that point that despite this drop, “Black voters are key to Democratic success” — without the large majorities of Black voters Biden won, he couldn’t have been competitive nationally or in key Electoral College states like Georgia, Pennsylvania, or Michigan.
Furthermore, the report estimates that turnout among Black voters increased from 2016 by 14 percent, a higher rate of increase than among white college voters (13 percent) or white non-college voters (11 percent). So it can be true both that Biden did worse than Clinton among Black voters and that Black voters remain a core pillar of the Democratic coalition.
So how does Joe Biden win if he barely improves on Clinton’s performance among non-college-educated white voters and does worse than she did among Black, Latino, and Asian voters?
It’s because of those gains among white voters with a college degree — where he built on and expanded the improvement Clinton had made. In 2012, Obama won an estimated 46 percent of these voters, in 2016 Clinton won 50 percent of them, and in 2020, Biden won 54 percent of them.
<h4>Two-Way (Democrat vs. Republican) Support for Democratic Candidates, 2012-2020</h4>
<figure class="e-image"><picture class="c-picture" data-cid="site/picture_element-1620712781_2093_237007" data-cdata='{"asset_id":22504234,"ratio":"*"}'><source srcset="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/AVG91yo4gmj0-WRrYAXwQ0s6ka4=/0x0:1154x534/320x0/filters:focal(0x0:1154x534):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504234/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_12.29.22_PM.png 320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/LmI8rZiyaj_78-xw4s4lvgV7nhY=/0x0:1154x534/520x0/filters:focal(0x0:1154x534):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504234/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_12.29.22_PM.png 520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Kzqy4WXxy5iQ7QG6vwDZrKYYvSE=/0x0:1154x534/720x0/filters:focal(0x0:1154x534):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504234/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_12.29.22_PM.png 720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/lvA9YtaFalQPMnftGtV4-1es0Qg=/0x0:1154x534/920x0/filters:focal(0x0:1154x534):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504234/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_12.29.22_PM.png 920w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/-YMeT8DXEZXdkRLmtNRKaXjngY4=/0x0:1154x534/1120x0/filters:focal(0x0:1154x534):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504234/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_12.29.22_PM.png 1120w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/F61VmPyOnedk3wrnnANlwpma9rE=/0x0:1154x534/1320x0/filters:focal(0x0:1154x534):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504234/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_12.29.22_PM.png 1320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/GSYOip7LW4Re0jKByyvc1yF9XkU=/0x0:1154x534/1520x0/filters:focal(0x0:1154x534):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504234/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_12.29.22_PM.png 1520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/PJP4pRHZUva0CiA9V9Ety3V8Jf8=/0x0:1154x534/1720x0/filters:focal(0x0:1154x534):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504234/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_12.29.22_PM.png 1720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/vbt3QDEWfVYCNPfOQ7ZDoQ_RVaA=/0x0:1154x534/1920x0/filters:focal(0x0:1154x534):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504234/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_12.29.22_PM.png 1920w" sizes="(min-width: 1221px) 846px, (min-width: 880px) calc(100vw - 334px), 100vw" type="image/webp" /> <img alt="" data-upload-width="1154" sizes="(min-width: 1221px) 846px, (min-width: 880px) calc(100vw - 334px), 100vw" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/dtRPdXfYBXEAZDgPZvj7GDjkcso=/0x0:1154x534/1200x0/filters:focal(0x0:1154x534):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504234/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_12.29.22_PM.png" srcset="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/clYxi7JkXzHoS5tfa-m87Y2YMcI=/0x0:1154x534/320x0/filters:focal(0x0:1154x534):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504234/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_12.29.22_PM.png 320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/8l08ZUd4HaSjzKPuCPPmRIKpVGE=/0x0:1154x534/520x0/filters:focal(0x0:1154x534):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504234/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_12.29.22_PM.png 520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Vl7MUK7aIMbplfpH8vecbnXxn1w=/0x0:1154x534/720x0/filters:focal(0x0:1154x534):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504234/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_12.29.22_PM.png 720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/fEFA29wdu-I_VQsIBT4I4oAPd8o=/0x0:1154x534/920x0/filters:focal(0x0:1154x534):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504234/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_12.29.22_PM.png 920w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/3ILd83Eoj81VWhx5W2XPKzgW98o=/0x0:1154x534/1120x0/filters:focal(0x0:1154x534):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504234/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_12.29.22_PM.png 1120w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Z6NQsn7C99hSCW7lunpAYjseELk=/0x0:1154x534/1320x0/filters:focal(0x0:1154x534):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504234/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_12.29.22_PM.png 1320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/esftTuW8mIWlEqkQBo2d8BQ_Jc8=/0x0:1154x534/1520x0/filters:focal(0x0:1154x534):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504234/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_12.29.22_PM.png 1520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/zN-U4lehuYRznlSV0Z21b6ZCczo=/0x0:1154x534/1720x0/filters:focal(0x0:1154x534):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504234/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_12.29.22_PM.png 1720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/mlH8irk0jsRhR_Rf7v77MeMXoBI=/0x0:1154x534/1920x0/filters:focal(0x0:1154x534):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504234/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_12.29.22_PM.png 1920w" /></picture> <cite><a class="ql-link" href="https://catalist.us/wh-national/" target="_blank">Catalist</a></cite></figure>
White college-educated voters made up about 28 percent of the electorate in 2020 — about as much as all nonwhite voters combined. So winning college-educated whites by 54 to 46 percent matters a great deal.
Further, according to the report, about 58 percent of white women with a college degree voted for Biden (compared to 55 percent voting for Clinton in 2016 and 50 percent voting for Obama in 2012).
<h4>Democratic Vote Share of Selected Groups of White Voters, 2012-2020</h4>
<figure class="e-image"><picture class="c-picture" data-cid="site/picture_element-1620712781_6760_237008" data-cdata='{"asset_id":22504248,"ratio":"*"}'><source srcset="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/oGbBpayhZaNkY4Zl5oMV2Xc2uw0=/0x0:1622x688/320x0/filters:focal(0x0:1622x688):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504248/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_12.37.19_PM.png 320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/BNrHOfR6YicoP1NQYdtx4QvFRPY=/0x0:1622x688/520x0/filters:focal(0x0:1622x688):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504248/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_12.37.19_PM.png 520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/JgyVj42Vh6AWFwAr5gUUxYY3ELE=/0x0:1622x688/720x0/filters:focal(0x0:1622x688):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504248/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_12.37.19_PM.png 720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/uRORoTQ_C3lWfAuPvPfydMeXr4Y=/0x0:1622x688/920x0/filters:focal(0x0:1622x688):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504248/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_12.37.19_PM.png 920w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/QUCxFuIDOPsRLHmhUyskLkPXFzc=/0x0:1622x688/1120x0/filters:focal(0x0:1622x688):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504248/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_12.37.19_PM.png 1120w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/uhqw1O8jRptyo5s93eYbl8FdQIQ=/0x0:1622x688/1320x0/filters:focal(0x0:1622x688):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504248/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_12.37.19_PM.png 1320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/2jQSkreui24LqAncjnAiyUwIicw=/0x0:1622x688/1520x0/filters:focal(0x0:1622x688):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504248/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_12.37.19_PM.png 1520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/hytuCZYwLv6OvF-PfAwabujq0Ak=/0x0:1622x688/1720x0/filters:focal(0x0:1622x688):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504248/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_12.37.19_PM.png 1720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/nI2wG1zQI3wvNn_TfI40lEMNxsk=/0x0:1622x688/1920x0/filters:focal(0x0:1622x688):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504248/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_12.37.19_PM.png 1920w" sizes="(min-width: 1221px) 846px, (min-width: 880px) calc(100vw - 334px), 100vw" type="image/webp" /> <img alt="" data-upload-width="1622" sizes="(min-width: 1221px) 846px, (min-width: 880px) calc(100vw - 334px), 100vw" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/x_9DVVezN21BAawkUmgl0uKDV6U=/0x0:1622x688/1200x0/filters:focal(0x0:1622x688):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504248/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_12.37.19_PM.png" srcset="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/-mlrvvHkE0e3S2DxdE4R4ggxoQY=/0x0:1622x688/320x0/filters:focal(0x0:1622x688):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504248/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_12.37.19_PM.png 320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ifMp3mtoJYnU1ClbUqAf5Ud7Aig=/0x0:1622x688/520x0/filters:focal(0x0:1622x688):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504248/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_12.37.19_PM.png 520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/bvgRGhzfF0tCNS1D545IUGe_J1Y=/0x0:1622x688/720x0/filters:focal(0x0:1622x688):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504248/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_12.37.19_PM.png 720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/AP9rpNd0LDokaWGXaaVzt5LLEbs=/0x0:1622x688/920x0/filters:focal(0x0:1622x688):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504248/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_12.37.19_PM.png 920w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/i_pwVy5sqjkFwSafAVpjMZfaESg=/0x0:1622x688/1120x0/filters:focal(0x0:1622x688):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504248/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_12.37.19_PM.png 1120w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/jtxokHiko8AG7_zMVKkyWKNnjsw=/0x0:1622x688/1320x0/filters:focal(0x0:1622x688):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504248/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_12.37.19_PM.png 1320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/L5zBQ60qYqhIfQutDwoxnki8hmM=/0x0:1622x688/1520x0/filters:focal(0x0:1622x688):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504248/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_12.37.19_PM.png 1520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/0HvrFbKAlzSkKZMVCiT4o5ac0U0=/0x0:1622x688/1720x0/filters:focal(0x0:1622x688):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504248/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_12.37.19_PM.png 1720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/4fFjf5aN4c_vxAMRrmpS2sWnV10=/0x0:1622x688/1920x0/filters:focal(0x0:1622x688):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22504248/Screen_Shot_2021_05_10_at_12.37.19_PM.png 1920w" /></picture> <cite><a class="ql-link" href="https://catalist.us/wh-national/" target="_blank">Catalist</a></cite></figure>
“The dominant takeaway, from our data and others, is that white college graduates and white suburban voters have turned solidly against Donald Trump’s Republican party,” the authors write.
This is true as far as the trend goes, and it’s one of the most important factors explaining why Biden won and Clinton didn’t. However, it’s also important to stress that 46 percent of college-educated whites still did vote for Trump. Democrats don’t exactly dominate among this group just yet, and it remains to be seen whether their gains here will prove durable.
One overall takeaway from the report, though, is that an electoral majority is often a fragile thing these days. Lose a few points among a few groups and it could slip from your grasp. And some apparent trends continue from one election to the next — while others can surprisingly reverse themselves.
 
 
source <a href="https://www.vox.com/2021/5/10/22425178/catalist-report-2020-election-biden-trump-demographics">https://www.vox.com/2021/5/10/22425178/catalist-report-2020-election-biden-trump-demographics</a>

vox A new report complicates simplistic narratives about race and the 2020 election

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War Room: Pandemic hosts Steve Bannon and Raheem Kassam acknowledged Alex Jones’ influence on the America First movement during a Monday broadcast.
“I never thought I’d say this,” Kassam said. “But you look at the last 15, 20 years of conservative commentary all across the Western world. You look at people like Alex Jones, who for a decade I thought, ‘Hey, this guy is a nut job.'”
Kassam said he soon realized what many on the internet already knew: <a href="https://www.infowars.com/posts/internet-again-admits-alex-jones-was-right-after-newsweek-piece-on-vampire-like-blood-transfusion-life-extension-technology/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Alex Jones was right</a>.
“But you read between the lines of the things he’s sort of trying to communicate in his crazy way, sure…”
“He’s kind of a showman,” Bannon, President Trump’s former White House strategist, noted.
“Never discount Alex Jones’ brilliance, his smarts,” he added.
Kassam then segued into a discussion about how <a href="https://www.banned.video/watch?id=609879bd6516c61b2894ea54" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Canadian police arrested Pastor Artur Pawlowski</a> on Saturday, highlighting Jones’ regular point that Christianity is under sustained attack.
In fact, so many things Jones has said have come to pass it’s become a popular internet meme to say, “Alex Jones was right,” when some new horrific development he discussed 10 years ago actually happens.
<div class="4iJ8udIO"><a href="https://www.infowarsgold.com/" target="_blank"><img src="https://api.directus.libertycdn.com/uploads/_/originals/StJosephPartners-hero-385.jpg" /></a></div>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" readability="8.3374233128834">
Alex Jones was right about everything, all of it. The globalists are waging a war on your mind, body, and soul.
— Nicholas J. Fuentes (@NickJFuentes) <a href="https://twitter.com/NickJFuentes/status/1391851288548290568?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 10, 2021</a></blockquote>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-conversation="none" readability="2.2142857142857">
<a href="https://t.co/sELe5JjrjA">pic.twitter.com/sELe5JjrjA</a>
— Sturgill (@AmorousTenBear) <a href="https://twitter.com/AmorousTenBear/status/1379875097624915969?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 7, 2021</a></blockquote>
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<a href="https://banned.video/watch?id=6089c546565ec6002424c8f7" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Watch Tucker Carlson Defend Joe Rogan, Invoke Alex Jones</a>
 
 
source <a href="https://www.infowars.com/posts/never-discount-alex-jones-brilliance-raheem-kassam-steve-bannon-praise-infowars-host">https://www.infowars.com/posts/never-discount-alex-jones-brilliance-raheem-kassam-steve-bannon-praise-infowars-host</a>

news ‘Never Discount Alex Jones’ Brilliance’: Steve Bannon, Raheem Kassam Praise Infowars Host

War Room: Pandemic hosts Steve Bannon and Raheem Kassam acknowledged Alex Jones’ influence on the America First movement during a Monday bro...

Australian Woman Dies from Blood Clots Days after Getting AstraZeneca Vaccine

(Natural News) Australia’s main drug regulatory body reported its <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9478485/Death-woman-48-AstraZeneca-vaccine-likely-linked.html" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">first death from blood clotting</a> that is likely linked to AstraZeneca’s Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine.
This was announced by the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) on Friday, April 16, after it met to investigate the link between the vaccine and the patient’s death. <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-16/coronavirus-vaccine-linked-to-womans-blood-clotting/100075902" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">According to the TGA</a>, the person who died was Genene Norris, a 48-year-old woman from the Central Coast region of the state of New South Wales.
Norris received her dose of the AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine on April 9. She was rushed to the hospital the following day after developing blood clots. She was then placed on dialysis and in an intensive care unit. She never recovered, and she died on April 14.
This is the third reported case of thrombosis, or blood clots in the arteries and veins, linked to the AstraZeneca vaccine in Australia. Norris and the other two patients also presented to the hospital with thrombocytopenia or low platelet counts.
The previous two cases were treated at hospitals and recovered soon after. (Related: <a href="https://www.naturalnews.com/2021-04-02-scottish-woman-painful-rashes-astrazeneca-coronavirus-vaccine.html" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Scottish woman develops severe and painful rashes all over her body immediately after getting AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine</a>.)
The TGA said it was in the process of reviewing Norris’s case, but this investigation is being complicated by her extensive medical history and underlying health conditions such as diabetes.
Furthermore, experts on the TGA’s Vaccine Safety Investigation Group (VSIG) did not find any COVID-19 antibodies in her system. Despite this, the VSIG said health authorities and the public should assume a causative link to the AstraZeneca vaccine.
As of press time, the TGA said it was still waiting for the results on some laboratory tests, and that an autopsy was set to take place afterward.
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“Given this is an atypical presentation, should the test results and/or the autopsy provide an alternative causation, VSIG would review their decision,” said the TGA on Friday.
The Sanitarium Health Food Company, a food company that markets cereals and vegetarian products, confirmed that Norris was one of its 800 employees in their New South Wales factory.
“The company is saddened by the loss of a much loved employee, and we offer our heartfelt condolences to her family, friends and workmates,” said a Sanitarium spokesperson when pressed for comment by the Daily Mail Australia.
<h2>Australian government pushing ahead with vaccinations</h2>
The TGA announced the preliminary results of its investigation into Norris’ death on the same day that the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunization (ATAGI) and the federal government of Australia announced that it no longer recommended the AstraZeneca vaccine for individuals under 50. It would instead prefer it if health authorities gave the vaccine developed by Pfizer-BioNTech for that demographic.
Around 885,000 doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine have been administered since the Australian mass vaccination campaign began. The TGA said the three known blood clotting cases give the country a rate of one in 295,000 jabs that could potentially result in these life-threatening complications.
Symptoms of the clotting complications include severe headaches, blurred vision, pain, leg swelling, shortness of breath and bruising of a part of the body away from the injection site.
Health authorities in Australia have advised anyone experiencing any of these symptoms after getting vaccinated to seek medical attention immediately.
Despite the dangers of getting vaccinated, the state government of New South Wales is not going to stop vaccinating its residents. When pressed for comment, the state’s Ministry of Health (NSW Health) said it did not discuss individual cases.
“Any death is a tragedy and NSW Health extends its condolences to the loved ones of the person who passed away,” it said.
“NSW Health is working closely with the TGA and the Commonwealth Department of Health, and will continue to operate within ATAGI guidelines.”
Learn more about the dangers associated with the coronavirus injections by reading the latest articles at <a href="https://vaccines.news/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Vaccines.news</a>.
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<a href="https://banthis.tv/watch?id=609986328b086f1d34e56b1b" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">The Age Of Bio Terror Beckons</a>
 
 
source <a href="https://www.infowars.com/posts/australian-woman-dies-from-blood-clots-days-after-getting-astrazeneca-vaccine">https://www.infowars.com/posts/australian-woman-dies-from-blood-clots-days-after-getting-astrazeneca-vaccine</a>

news Australian Woman Dies from Blood Clots Days after Getting AstraZeneca Vaccine

(Natural News) Australia’s main drug regulatory body reported its first death from blood clotting that is likely linked to AstraZeneca’s W...