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China Creates Digital Currency That Expires

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What is the future of money and trade? Some people are very excited to promote “Crypto” as the future, but those who are watching it carefully should be less optimistic.
There is no doubt that crypto will have a place. It has had one since 2008, and it will continue to grow. However, people thinking that crypto will solve their problems are either overly optimistic or display ignorance of basic financial reality. It is true that the current financial system is based on a paradigm of money tied to nothing other than the belief that people have that it is valuable.
Many say that crypto solves this problem because it is ‘tied to the blockchain’, and if there was ever a more ignorant statement that could be made, this is one of them. What does the value of crypto come from? It comes from the value that people believe in it as valuable, because it has no physical source from which its value derives. For example, gold is valuable because the metal itself has value, just as land is value because it comes from the thing- its existence is the value because the thing cannot just be destroyed by a lack of faith in it. Just as there were Dutchmen who upon arrival to southernmost Africa were shocked at the diamonds that lay in the stone practically on the ground and which the local natives seemingly placed no value it, such did not destroy the value of the diamonds themselves because one group of people did not care for them, because the value was in the diamond itself as a thing, no matter who the people there could be.
If crypto sounds a lot like “fiat” currency, you are correct, because it is a fiat currency, just with a computer in one’s home. Crypto also only exists if access to electricity exists. Turn off the electricity, and all the value disappears. However, take a lump of silver, or an ingot of copper, throw it in the ground for a century, and when somebody finds it a century later, it still has value because the value comes from the thing itself. Another big problem with crypto is the blockchain, which records as a permanent, irreversible, public record that can be accessed with essentially a decoding key- which law enforcement has access to -all transactions that the currency makes, what it was for, how much, when, and what location.
If one is not alarmed by this, one should be, because for all the talk of ‘decentralization’, crypto provides more centralization and control in that all transactions are recorded, never erased, and able to be viewed. Privacy, while difficult enough with a credit card, is absolutely nonexistent with crypto. Worse, given the increasing tendency to refuse to grandfather in actions when passing laws, it provides a searchable, traceable record for law enforcement to potentially engage in ‘retroactive prosecution’ of people. As one of many possible examples, say a person bought a certain gun part that later on is banned. The blockchain could be theoretically searched and people who bought that part could receive letters or even possibly be put under suspicion even leading to investigation for something they purchased not even recently, but because of the permanent nature of the blockchain, decades ago and while it was still legal to own, or perhaps does not own any more.
However, a recent news story adds another layer to crypto and the whole concept of digital currency that even surprises me, but not surprisingly at the same time. China is now going to move forwards with issuing her own digital currency, but have some of the currency contain a built-in code that it will expire- as in if one does not spend the money, one loses it.
<blockquote>[The digital yuan is] also trackable, adding another tool to China’s heavy state surveillance. The government deploys hundreds of millions of facial-recognition cameras to monitor its population, sometimes using them to levy fines for activities such as jaywalking.</blockquote>
<blockquote>A digital currency would make it possible to both mete out and collect fines as soon as an infraction was detected. A burst of cash-accumulation in China last year indicates residents’ concern about the central bank’s eye on every transaction. Song Ke, a finance professor at Renmin University in Beijing, told a recent conference that China’s measure of yuan in circulation, or cash, popped up 10% in 2020.</blockquote>
<blockquote>Then there are the myriad boosts to China’s ironclad capital controls: While China hasn’t published final legislation for the program, the central bank says it may initially impose limits on how much digital yuan individuals can keep on their person, as a way to control how it circulates and provide users a dose of security and privacy. To be sure, none of this is actually new as we have discussed all these nuances of the digital yuan before.</blockquote>
<blockquote>What is now, is this blurb in the WSJ article: The money itself is programmable. Beijing has tested expiration dates to encourage users to spend it quickly, for times when the economy needs a jump start.</blockquote>
<blockquote>And there you have it: the Keynesian wet dream to boost the velocity of mean finally comes true. For the past decade we have joked that it is only a matter of time before central banks slap on an expiration date on every monetary unit in circulation… (<a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/chinas-digital-yuan-comes-expiration-date">source</a>)</blockquote>
This is, in my personal opinion, the absolute most scam-filled part of the whole system. It proves that not only is such a thing potential, but that it can and will be done by governments. If money can ‘expire’, it is not possible to accumulate unless one communicates it into something that has non-expirable value. For example, milk and meat expire, but land does not. How can one save anything? What is the point of savings if one’s money is going to be taken from one by force? It is difficult enough for many people to earn money, or to save it, to manage it, and to prevent its loss. Adding this to it would create a state of perpetual impoverishment, and absolute fiscal and by extension, political control over men’s lives, for economic control always precedes political action. 
People talk about a ‘mark of the beast’, and the creation of a financial system in which one cannot buy or sell without the mark. While not wanting to assume anything, the invasive, controlling, and potentially deadly nature of digital currencies may provide, in some way, a further realization of this than has ever before existed yet in recent or past history.
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source <a href="https://shoebat.com/2021/04/12/china-creates-digital-currency-that-expires/">https://shoebat.com/2021/04/12/china-creates-digital-currency-that-expires/</a>

armageddon China Creates Digital Currency That Expires

What is the future of money and trade? Some people are very excited to promote “Crypto” as the future, but those who are watching it carefully should be less optimistic. There is no doubt that crypto will have a place. It has had one since 2008, and…

Daunte Wright’s killing is a reminder of how quickly traffic stops can become deadly

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The police killing of Daunte Wright, a 20-year-old Black man, following a traffic stop in Brooklyn Center, Minnesota, comes as <a href="https://www.vox.com/22372672/derek-chauvin-trial-george-floyd-momentous-trauma-pain-police-reform">former police officer Derek Chauvin</a> is on trial for the killing of George Floyd roughly 10 miles to the south. Wright’s death, one of more than 260 fatal police shootings that have already happened this year, is yet another reminder of how quickly any police interaction can turn deadly — particularly for Black Americans.
Wright was stopped by police Sunday afternoon; his mother, Katie Wright, said her son called her as the stop was happening in order to ask her about insurance — she says the car had belonged to her, and she’d given it to Wright two weeks prior. His mother also said Wright told her officers informed him he was being stopped because there was an <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/11/us/brooklyn-center-minnesota-police-shooting.html">air freshener hanging from the rearview mirror</a>. Most “objects suspended between the driver and the windshield,” including air fresheners, are <a href="https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/169.71">illegal in the state</a>. Police, however, said Monday that Wright was stopped for <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/04/12/986458941/police-say-accidental-discharge-of-gun-led-to-daunte-wrights-death">having expired tags on his car</a>.
Police also say they discovered after they pulled him over that there was a warrant out for Wright’s arrest. Wright’s mother says she heard him being told to exit his vehicle, and that “I heard police officers say, ‘Daunte, don’t run.’”
Police <a href="https://www.kare11.com/article/news/local/curfew-lifted-brooklyn-center-police-shooting/89-00f84fad-9304-4d63-bc3b-1a97e93f9276">body camera video</a> released Monday afternoon shows Wright outside of the car, with his hands behind his back. As one officer moves to handcuff him, he breaks away, reentering his car. An officer attempts to pull him back out, while the body camera shows an officer aiming a gun at Wright.
That gun discharges; Wright was shot. The car pulls away. The officer with the firearm can be heard saying, “Oh shit, I just shot him.” The <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2021/04/12/daunte-wright-police-shooting-near-minneapolis-protest-what-to-know/7185768002/">chief of police at Brooklyn Center</a> said he believes the shot was an “accidental discharge,” and that, given the officer can be heard yelling “taser” that the officer drew their handgun in error.
Wright died a few blocks away from the shooting after hitting another vehicle. His girlfriend, who needed treatment for non-life-threatening injuries, was in the passenger seat.
The Minnesota Bureau of Criminal Apprehension — the law enforcement agency that oversaw the state investigation into George Floyd’s death — has begun a review of the shooting.
“We want justice for Daunte,” Katie Wright said at a memorial following the shooting.
Hundreds of Brooklyn Center residents protested late into the night in demonstrations that culminated in a <a href="https://www.mprnews.org/story/2021/04/11/authorities-investigating-police-shooting-in-brooklyn-center">rally outside of the Brooklyn Center Police Department</a>, which saw protesters demanding accountability as officers pushed them back with flash-bang grenades and tear gas.
Police ultimately declared the rally — which featured some protesters throwing items at armored officers — an unlawful assembly and ordered the crowd to leave or be arrested.
Wright’s mother <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/daunte-wright-killing-by-police-in-minnesota-sparks-protests">called on the protesters to be peaceful</a> in their advocacy, saying, “All the violence, if it keeps going it’s only going to be about the violence. We need it to be about why my son got shot for no reason.”
Many parents have asked similar questions. More than 1,127 people were killed by police during 2020, according to <a href="https://mappingpoliceviolence.org/">Mapping Police Violence</a>. And many of those parents have had Black children; the races of all those killed aren't known, but of those that are, about 30 percent of those killed were Black.
The knowledge that a disproportionate number of Black Americans are killed by police can make every encounter feel dangerous. At another recent, prominent traffic stop — this one in Virginia — <a href="https://www.vox.com/e/22144470">2nd Lt. Caron Nazario</a>, a Black Latinx man, was confronted by officers who demanded, at gunpoint, that he exit his vehicle.
When Nazario told the officers, “I’m honestly afraid to get out,” one responded, “Yeah, you should be.”
And he should have been.
Wright’s killing, the killing of Philando Castile (who died nearly five years ago not far from where Wright lived his last moments), the arrest and death of Sandra Bland, and the many other Black people killed are testament to the fact that traffic stops are inherently dangerous. And it has reignited debate over just how necessary traffic stops really are.
As University of Arkansas law professor Jordan Blair Woods wrote in the <a href="https://michiganlawreview.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/117MichLRev635_Woods.pdf">Michigan Law Review</a>, police, like many Black Americans, are taught to view stops as dangerous — not to those being stopped, but to themselves.
“Police academies regularly show officer trainees videos of the most extreme cases of violence against officers during routine traffic stops in order to stress that mundane police work can quickly turn into a deadly situation if they become complacent on the scene or hesitate to use force,” Woods wrote.
But in a review of Florida’s traffic stop data from 2005 to 2014, Woods found this mindset to be unnecessary. Police, the data showed, had a 1 in 6.5 million chance of being killed during a traffic stop, and a 1 in 361,111 chance of being seriously injured. Overall, 98 percent of stops saw zero or minor injury to officers.
Citizens’ chances of surviving a routine stop with police don’t seem to be quite as good; a <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/pdf/10.1086/703541">2019 study by Shea Streeter</a>, currently a postdoctoral fellow at the University of Michigan, found that in 2015, about 11 percent of police killings happened at traffic and pedestrian stops nationwide.
Complicating matters for Black individuals is that they appear to be <a href="https://scholarship.law.duke.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=&httpsredir=1&article=1065&context=dflsc">stopped more often</a> than white people — in some localities, by a large margin. The <a href="https://openpolicing.stanford.edu/findings/">Stanford Open Policing Project</a>, a database of more than 200 million traffic stops, found that in St. Paul, not far from where Wright was killed, Black drivers are a little more than three times more likely than white drivers to be pulled over; in San Jose, California, Black drivers are six times more likely to be stopped.
Arguably, drivers of all races ought to be stopped at about the same rate — failing to signal or missing a sudden change in speed limit would seem to be mistakes anyone could make. This has led to a number of researchers trying to understand this disparity, and, in general, these studies suggest that the issue has to do with officer bias, conscious or unconscious, that casts Black people as inherently more dangerous than their white counterparts.
Tied to this idea is the question of what stops are for. As a group of University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and Dartmouth College researchers led by UNC political science professor Frank R. Baumgartner wrote in a <a href="https://scholarship.law.duke.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=&httpsredir=1&article=1065&context=dflsc">2017 paper</a>, in many departments, traffic stops are meant to serve a dual purpose: as a deterrent for the person stopped, and as a chance to do some investigative work for the officer. In many ways, this system is akin to the stop-and-frisk technique, a practice <a href="https://www.vox.com/first-person/2020/2/14/21136892/stop-and-frisk-bloomberg-activist">most prominently used in New York City</a> that was meant to uncover criminal behavior through street searches. The program was ruled unconstitutional.
As Baumgartner wrote, “officers are trained to use traffic stops as a general enforcement strategy aimed at reducing violent crime or drug trafficking. When officers are serving these broader goals, they are making an investigatory stop, and these stops have little (if anything) to do with traffic safety and everything to do with who looks suspicious.”
If Black drivers are seen as looking more suspicious and police are trained to view traffic stops as dangerous in general, this creates a serious problem. When a Black driver is stopped, the interaction is more likely to begin with the officer even more on guard for trouble than they might otherwise be.
This can lead to the kind of rapid escalation seen in Nazario’s case, in which officers attempted to manage the stop through violence: first with a weapon and threats, and later with nonlethal force. Body camera footage released during Chauvin’s trial, for example, shows an officer drawing his weapon shortly after approaching Floyd’s vehicle and yelling at him to “Put your fucking hands up right now.”
All of this puts Black drivers in mortal danger. Law enforcement representatives have argued the stops are necessary — “we find drugs, evidence of other crimes ... it’s a very valuable tool,” Kevin Lawrence, the Texas Municipal Police Association’s executive director told the <a href="https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2020/09/03/police-pretext-traffic-stops-need-to-end-some-lawmakers-say">Pew Charitable Trusts</a> in 2019 — but those discoveries are rare. Nationally, about 4 percent of stops resulted in arrests in 2015, according to the <a href="https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/cpp15.pdf">Bureau of Justice Statistics</a>.
This has a number of activists and elected officials questioning whether the risks traffic stops pose to drivers — particularly Black drivers — are worth such a small number of arrests.
<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/24/us/berkeley-police.html">Berkeley</a>, for instance, recently approved a plan to prohibit officers from conducting traffic stops for violations that have nothing to do with safety; <a href="https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/To-curb-racial-bias-Oakland-police-are-pulling-14839567.php">Oakland</a> has a similar policy in place. Other places, including <a href="https://theappeal.org/traffic-enforcement-without-police/">Montgomery County, Maryland</a>, and <a href="https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2020/09/03/police-pretext-traffic-stops-need-to-end-some-lawmakers-say">Cambridge, Massachusetts</a>, have contemplated such measures as well. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/transportation/2019/10/01/bowser-does-an-end-run-around-dc-council-transfers-speed-red-light-camera-program-ddot/">Washington, DC</a>, stripped its police department of some of its authority to regulate traffic laws, empowering its transportation department to do enforcement instead. <a href="https://apnews.com/article/bronx-arrests-traffic-archive-new-york-c93fa5fc03f25c2b625d36e4c75d1691">New York’s attorney general</a> has recommended New York City make a similar change.
The long-term effectiveness of such measures remains to be seen. But they represent a step toward reform and a step away from the kind of policing that has left Wright dead.
 
 
source <a href="https://www.vox.com/2021/4/12/22379984/daunte-wright-minnesota-police-killing-traffic-stop-brooklyn-center">https://www.vox.com/2021/4/12/22379984/daunte-wright-minnesota-police-killing-traffic-stop-brooklyn-center</a>

vox Daunte Wright’s killing is a reminder of how quickly traffic stops can become deadly

The police killing of Daunte Wright, a 20-year-old Black man, following a traffic stop in Brooklyn Center, Minnesota, comes as former police officer Derek Chauvin is on trial for the killing of George Floyd roughly 10 miles to the south. Wright’s de…

A Black Army lieutenant is suing Virginia police after being held at gunpoint

<div><img class="ff-og-image-inserted" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/NJA6Ukmyb069MOGE-4N_c8PAsy0=/0x0:2060x1079/fit-in/1200x630/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22439580/ap_21099708040262.jpeg" /></div>
A violent, threat-filled traffic stop of a Black and Latinx Army officer, 2nd Lt. Caron Nazario, has drawn new attention to the scope of police misconduct as the world watches the <a href="https://www.vox.com/22372672/derek-chauvin-trial-george-floyd-momentous-trauma-pain-police-reform">trial of Derek Chauvin</a>, the former police officer who killed George Floyd.
The incident, which took place in in Windsor, Virginia, in December 2020, has come under new scrutiny following the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kP9M6sdN1B8">release of body camera footage</a>, and after Nazario filed a lawsuit in early April against the officers who made the stop. Saturday, <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/547619-virginia-governor-orders-investigation-after-police-pepper-sprayed-army">Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam</a> announced an investigation into what he called a “disturbing” incident.
Nazario has said he was driving through eastern Virginia when he saw flashing police lights behind him. He did not stop immediately, but turned his hazard lights on and proceeded slowly to a well-lit gas station. His decision to do so — as well as the tinted windows and temporary license plate on his new SUV — apparently caused officers to decide they were about to conduct a “high-risk traffic stop.”
Given this perceived risk level, officer Daniel Crocker stepped out of his police vehicle and immediately pointed his gun at Nazario’s car, shouting at the lieutenant to “get out of the car now.”
“What’s going on?” Nazario <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/11/us/windsor-virginia-police-stop-army-lieutenant-lawsuit/index.html">asked</a>. “I’m honestly afraid to get out.”
“Yeah, you should be, get out now!” another officer, Joe Gutierrez, can be heard saying immediately after.
Despite Nazario’s questions, the officers didn’t tell Nazario why he was being pulled over: It was because they couldn’t see a license plate on his vehicle. The car was new; a temporary cardboard license plate had been taped to Nazario’s rear window.
Instead, they attempted to forcibly open Nazario’s door, even as Nazario maintained he did not have to exit his vehicle for a traffic violation. Gutierrez then pepper-sprayed Nazario four times, yelling at him to get out of the car as Nazario asked for help unbuckling his seatbelt. Once he was able to unbuckle himself, the lieutenant was forcibly pushed onto the ground.
“Can you please talk to me about what’s going on?” Nazario asked. “Why am I being treated like this, why?”
“Cause you’re not cooperating! Get on the ground! Lie down or you’re gonna get tased,” one of the officers can be heard saying; at one point, Gutierrez can be heard saying, “You’re fixin’ to ride the lightning, son.”
Ultimately, Nazario was not arrested; as paramedics arrived on the scene to treat Nazario for the pepper spray, Gutierrez said he’d spoken to the police chief, and the department planned to release the lieutenant without any charges.
“There’s no need getting this on your record,” Gutierrez is heard saying in the bodycam footage. “I don’t want this on your record. However, it’s entirely up to you. If you want to fight it and argue ... if that’s what you want, we’ll charge you,” Gutierrez said.
The offer, Nazario’s lawsuit alleges, was an attempted quid pro quo. The lieutenant claims he was told if he didn’t “chill and let this go,” officers would ensure his military record would be damaged. Nazario responded by telling the officers he would let his superiors know what happened.
Gutierrez said in the footage that would be understandable given “the climate we’re in, with the media spewing with the race relations against minorities,” but that any legal action by Nazario “doesn’t change my life one way or the other.”
Ultimately, the incident did change his life; he was fired following an investigation into the incident by the <a href="https://www.windsor-va.gov/news/article/april/11/2021/press-release-on-police-stop-of-december-5,-2020">Windsor Police Department</a>. His firing, however, raised the question of whether there are a few “bad apples” in policing, or if behavior like that he and Crocker displayed in December is part of a larger problem with policing.
Gutierrez’s firing came because his department found that “Windsor Police Department policy was not followed” during the traffic stop.
“The Town of Windsor prides itself in its small-town charm and the community-wide respect of its Police Department,” the department said in a Sunday <a href="https://www.windsor-va.gov/news/article/april/11/2021/press-release-on-police-stop-of-december-5,-2020">press release</a>. “Due to this, we are saddened for events like this to cast our community in a negative light. Rather than deflect criticism, we have addressed these matters with our personnel administratively, we are reaching out to community stakeholders to engage in dialogue, and commit ourselves to additional discussions in the future.”
The statement was markedly similar to a statement made by Minneapolis Police Chief Medaria Arradondo about his former officer Derek Chauvin’s behavior the day George Floyd died. Testifying during Chauvin’s murder and manslaughter trial, Arradondo, and other law enforcement officials, were particularly impassioned in distancing his police department from Chauvin’s actions.
“That in no way, shape, or form is anything that is by policy,” he said on the stand. “It is not part of our training. It is certainly not part of our ethics or our values.”
As <a href="https://www.vox.com/22373113/derek-chauvin-trial-police-officers-testify">Vox’s Fabiola Cineas</a> writes, statements such as these are part of an effort by police to avoid greater scrutiny into their practices:
<blockquote>
While the officers’ testimony can be interpreted as a changing tide in an opaque culture, it’s likelier that the high-profile nature of the trial is forcing them to cast Chauvin as the bad apple — the one officer who doesn’t represent the broader department and system of policing, the one they need to throw out — as a way to avoid greater examination of police.
</blockquote>
But when excessive force by police is observed everywhere, not just in Minneapolis, or in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/08/13/us/ferguson-missouri-town-under-siege-after-police-shooting.html">St. Louis</a>, in <a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/5/13/21257457/breonna-taylor-louisville-shooting-ahmaud-arbery-justiceforbreonna">Louisville</a> or <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/rochester-ny-police-city-officials-sued-inhumane-police-brutality-daniel-prude-protests/">Rochester</a> — but in Windsor, Virginia, a town some 50 miles west of Virginia Beach and home to just under 3,000 people, it only adds to the narrative that racist police violence is systemic. The steps taken by the Windsor Police Department are similar to all those testimonies by Minneapolis officers. An immediate distancing from Gutierrez, an admonition. Things like that don’t happen here.
The breadth of prominent incidents of bad policing makes it clear that there is something wrong throughout the US, and research has shown there is a national problem with traffic stops as well. The Stanford Open Policing Project found, after analyzing almost 100 million traffic stops in the US, that Black drivers are about 20 percent more likely to be pulled over by police for traffic violations. And once that happens, Black drivers are 1.5 to 2 times more likely to be searched than white drivers, even though white drivers are statistically more likely to have drugs, guns, or other contraband in their cars, according to the decade-long <a href="https://www.nyu.edu/about/news-publications/news/2020/may/black-drivers-more-likely-to-be-stopped-by-police.html">study</a>, conducted by researchers at Stanford and New York University.
And there are a number of bad outcomes for Black drivers at traffic stops that highlight exactly why Nazario told the officers he was “honestly afraid to get out,” from the arrest of <a href="https://www.vox.com/2019/5/7/18535659/sandra-bland-video-traffic-stop-brian-encinia-texas-police">Sandra Bland</a> to the death of <a href="https://www.vox.com/2016/7/7/12116288/minnesota-police-shooting-philando-castile-falcon-heights-video">Philando Castile</a>, to a more recent example.
Sunday, <a href="https://www.vox.com/e/22144025">Daunte Wright</a>, a 20-year-old Black man, was killed near Minneapolis during a traffic stop by a police officer who mistook her taser for a gun after he stepped back into his vehicle following a brief struggle.
Nazario was not killed, but incidents like these show why he may have had reason to fear he might be.
 
 
source <a href="https://www.vox.com/2021/4/12/22380429/black-army-lieutenant-traffic-stop-pepper-sprayed-gunpoint">https://www.vox.com/2021/4/12/22380429/black-army-lieutenant-traffic-stop-pepper-sprayed-gunpoint</a>

vox A Black Army lieutenant is suing Virginia police after being held at gunpoint

A violent, threat-filled traffic stop of a Black and Latinx Army officer, 2nd Lt. Caron Nazario, has drawn new attention to the scope of police misconduct as the world watches the trial of Derek Chauvin, the former police officer who killed George F…

Israel’s suspected attack on an Iranian nuclear site complicates US-Iran talks

A mysterious power outage occurred at one of Iran’s most important nuclear facilities on Sunday in what reports indicate was likely an act of cyber-sabotage carried out by Israel — and it could have serious ramifications for the future of the floundering 2015 nuclear deal.
The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/11/world/middleeast/iran-nuclear-natanz.html?partner=slack&smid=sl-share">New York Times</a>, citing intelligence sources, reports that what seems to have been a “deliberately planned explosion” at the Natanz nuclear site on Sunday “completely destroyed” the power system for centrifuges that enrich uranium — a material that, if enriched to high levels, can be used to make a nuclear bomb. That caused a blackout at the facility, and it may take over nine months to restart production.
If that timeline proves correct, it’d be quite the blow to Tehran’s nuclear advancement.
The timing of the incident is particularly striking, as it comes right as the United States, Iran, and the other parties to the 2015 nuclear agreement are meeting in Vienna to discuss how the US and Iran can come back into compliance with the terms of the deal.
Under that original agreement, Iran agreed to significantly curb its nuclear program — including its uranium enrichment efforts — in exchange for the removal of some of the economic sanctions imposed on the country by the US.
But after then-President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew the US from the deal in 2018 and reimposed those sanctions, Iran once again began to enrich uranium above the levels set by the deal.
Just last week, Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization spokesperson, <a href="https://www.vox.com/2021/4/7/22371593/us-iran-nuclear-deal-vienna-malley">Behrouz Kamalvandi</a>, said his country had produced 55 kilograms (roughly 121 pounds) of uranium enriched to 20 percent, up from about 17 kilograms in January.
Uranium enriched to 20 percent is considered “highly enriched,” but it’s a far cry from the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/iran-nuclear-uranium-enrichment/2021/01/04/588949be-4e76-11eb-a1f5-fdaf28cfca90_story.html">90 percent</a> enrichment needed to make nuclear material for a bomb. Iran claimed, then, that it moved slightly closer — but still not particularly close — to actually having enough material to make a nuclear weapon.
Still, the announcement was nevertheless provocative — which most experts say is exactly the point. The general belief is that Iran is making these advancements to pressure the US into returning to the agreement and once again lifting the sanctions that have hamstrung Iran’s economy.
But it seems Iran’s announcement may have angered another nation enough to take action to try to curb Tehran’s nuclear progress: Israel.
The <a href="https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/incident-reported-in-iranian-natanz-nuclear-facility-664792">Jerusalem Post</a> and Israeli public broadcaster <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/natanz-nuclear-israel-iran-cyber-attack/2021/04/12/f97f1a60-9b51-11eb-b2f5-7d2f0182750d_story.html">Kan</a> report that the Mossad, Israel’s spy agency, launched a cyberattack that sparked the explosion that shut down multiple parts of the Natanz facility. Top Iranian officials appear to agree.
On Monday, Iranian Foreign Minister <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/natanz-nuclear-israel-iran-cyber-attack/2021/04/12/f97f1a60-9b51-11eb-b2f5-7d2f0182750d_story.html">Javad Zarif</a> told the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency that “the Zionists” — Iran’s term for Israel — “want to take revenge on the Iranian people for their success in lifting the oppressive sanctions, but we will not allow it and we will take revenge on the Zionists themselves.”
<figure class="e-image"><picture class="c-picture" data-cid="site/picture_element-1618270224_5745_721442" data-cdata='{"asset_id":22439288,"ratio":"*"}'><source srcset="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/m6kNQj-N0hIa7I9wtk7J0paA4tY=/0x0:4108x2739/320x0/filters:focal(0x0:4108x2739):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22439288/1231895652.jpg 320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/8mfk_O2gmwKCqNna1otrnSviwXI=/0x0:4108x2739/520x0/filters:focal(0x0:4108x2739):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22439288/1231895652.jpg 520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/7DPehm2TJmgTqd7KACYUQD7h_iE=/0x0:4108x2739/720x0/filters:focal(0x0:4108x2739):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22439288/1231895652.jpg 720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/3rfPOX6TqNoqQNSNuHVPQzVW3p8=/0x0:4108x2739/920x0/filters:focal(0x0:4108x2739):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22439288/1231895652.jpg 920w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/3GFTI9nEP89vgoRHYS9nE3eYAYc=/0x0:4108x2739/1120x0/filters:focal(0x0:4108x2739):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22439288/1231895652.jpg 1120w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ugkBEYVFyJLPH5bfcACyHjFc6as=/0x0:4108x2739/1320x0/filters:focal(0x0:4108x2739):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22439288/1231895652.jpg 1320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/QlKnJEGJHGN24RHfYoSlucDpWR4=/0x0:4108x2739/1520x0/filters:focal(0x0:4108x2739):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22439288/1231895652.jpg 1520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/b5b90nFD3xYoiWjit4Rj8lvyGSU=/0x0:4108x2739/1720x0/filters:focal(0x0:4108x2739):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22439288/1231895652.jpg 1720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/KWqtFykr_6Jc3fJsAshFe82Tsqk=/0x0:4108x2739/1920x0/filters:focal(0x0:4108x2739):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22439288/1231895652.jpg 1920w" sizes="(min-width: 1221px) 846px, (min-width: 880px) calc(100vw - 334px), 100vw" type="image/webp" /> <img alt="" data-upload-width="4108" sizes="(min-width: 1221px) 846px, (min-width: 880px) calc(100vw - 334px), 100vw" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/M6qycInQGDYzOijdQhxLXPQktEo=/0x0:4108x2739/1200x0/filters:focal(0x0:4108x2739):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22439288/1231895652.jpg" srcset="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/XiSai3sYWeJYK2C64VsMoiOdbFM=/0x0:4108x2739/320x0/filters:focal(0x0:4108x2739):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22439288/1231895652.jpg 320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/GsP5Oif5iOHQWf-pFOsZGNf0nzM=/0x0:4108x2739/520x0/filters:focal(0x0:4108x2739):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22439288/1231895652.jpg 520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ovwtbjFCDhHiazTwYFmU_3rqJSg=/0x0:4108x2739/720x0/filters:focal(0x0:4108x2739):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22439288/1231895652.jpg 720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/MpAgzYwB302ucjT4yggX_2FVGgc=/0x0:4108x2739/920x0/filters:focal(0x0:4108x2739):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22439288/1231895652.jpg 920w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/fkUewyzmujLva1gvhwSg10P0XSs=/0x0:4108x2739/1120x0/filters:focal(0x0:4108x2739):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22439288/1231895652.jpg 1120w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/JxC0W_nwnod1oti98KMAcdfdsas=/0x0:4108x2739/1320x0/filters:focal(0x0:4108x2739):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22439288/1231895652.jpg 1320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/XSs3G-v_YjcQC-yeF6Pz1LloJLY=/0x0:4108x2739/1520x0/filters:focal(0x0:4108x2739):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22439288/1231895652.jpg 1520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ja1LPSNUdu9o9oWPpU4W-mHJ72A=/0x0:4108x2739/1720x0/filters:focal(0x0:4108x2739):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22439288/1231895652.jpg 1720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/fdmN3hq1-36ModqIfufELWaYARY=/0x0:4108x2739/1920x0/filters:focal(0x0:4108x2739):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22439288/1231895652.jpg 1920w" /></picture>
<figcaption>Israeli Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu greets supporters as he speaks on March 24 in Jerusalem, Israel.</figcaption>
<cite>Amir Levy/Getty Images</cite></figure>
<a href="https://apnews.com/article/middle-east-iran-358384f03b1ef6b65f4264bf9a59a458">Multiple</a> <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/natanz-nuclear-israel-iran-cyber-attack/2021/04/12/f97f1a60-9b51-11eb-b2f5-7d2f0182750d_story.html">Iranian</a> officials called the suspected strike “nuclear terrorism,” with one claiming the attack fit with other “crimes against humanity which the Israeli regime has been doing for many years now.”
It’s true that Israel has for years taken action to disrupt Iran’s nuclear work. Last summer alone, <a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/7/17/21325985/iran-israel-explosion-natanz-nuclear-missile">explosions</a> occurred at an Iranian missile-production complex, an aluminum plant, and — just like this past weekend — the Natanz nuclear site. The consensus at the time was that Israel was responsible for each of those strikes.
And last November, <a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/11/28/21723778/assassination-iran-nuclear-scientist-mohsen-fakhrizadeh">Mohsen Fakhrizadeh</a>, Iran’s top nuclear scientist, was killed in an ambush by gunmen 40 miles outside of Tehran. That came just weeks after an international monitoring agency <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/iran-nuclear-iaea-int-idUSKBN27Y0W5">confirmed</a> that the country had taken new steps to blow past restrictions outlined in the nuclear deal. Once again, the belief within the intelligence and expert communities was that Israel had orchestrated the assassination.
It’s therefore entirely possible that Jerusalem was behind the latest Natanz incident.
“It’s hard for me to believe it’s a coincidence,” Yoel Guzansky, a senior fellow at Tel Aviv’s Institute for National Security Studies, told the <a href="https://apnews.com/article/middle-east-iran-358384f03b1ef6b65f4264bf9a59a458">Associated Press</a> on Sunday. “If it’s not a coincidence, and that’s a big if, someone is trying to send a message that ‘we can limit Iran’s advance and we have red lines.’”
Israel’s government rarely confirms or denies its operations publicly, partly to avoid retaliation and to maintain some semblance of mystery — and deniability.
But Israel’s top military officer, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/11/middleeast/iran-nuclear-incident-intl/index.html">Aviv Kochavi</a>, seemed to hint at his nation’s involvement just a few hours after Iranian officials confirmed the attack. Israel’s “operations throughout the Middle East are not hidden from the eyes of the enemies,” he said on Sunday in Jerusalem. “They are watching us, seeing the capabilities and carefully considering their steps.”
It’s unclear if the Biden administration got a heads-up before the strike, though many believe the US was probably informed, as US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin was in Israel at the time of the incident. The Biden administration firmly denies any foreknowledge or participation, though. “The US was not involved in any manner,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters on Monday.
Either way, two big questions arise from this episode. The first is whether the Natanz attack might lead to a greater confrontation between Israel and Iran. Experts I spoke to don’t really think so, as Jerusalem has carried out many of these strikes without a serious overt response from Tehran.
They “fit a pattern of how the Israelis have tried to set back Iran’s program in the past. In that sense, this is business as usual,” said Dalia Dassa Kaye, a fellow at the Wilson Center think tank in Washington, DC.
The second is if the attack might derail the sensitive negotiations between Iran and the United States to revive the nuclear deal. And that, experts said, is certainly possible.
The signatories of the 2015 nuclear pact — Iran, Russia, China, France, the UK, and Germany — as well as representatives from the European Union, met last week in Vienna to discuss how the US and Iran could get back into the agreement.
Tensions were already high, with neither Washington nor Tehran wanting to appear to be caving to the other. The optics mattered so much that the US delegation posted up at a <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/us-iran-nuclear-talks-eu-jcpoa/">hotel across the street from the hotel</a> where the Iranians held their meetings, requiring European diplomats to shuttle back and forth.
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<figcaption>Representatives of the European Union, Iran, and signatories to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal at the Grand Hotel in Vienna, Austria on April 6.</figcaption>
<cite>EU Delegation in Vienna/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images</cite></figure>
Even with those complications, the US and Iran struck a tiny bargain: They set up <a href="https://www.vox.com/2021/4/7/22371593/us-iran-nuclear-deal-vienna-malley">two working groups</a>, which by diplomatic standards is considered progress.
The first one will examine how the US can return to compliance with the deal, namely by lifting the sanctions the Trump administration put back on Iran after the US withdrew. The second working group will explore how Iran can return to compliance, requiring it to once again restrict its nuclear program.
<a href="https://www.voanews.com/middle-east/voa-news-iran/iran-launches-advanced-centrifuges-marking-its-national-nuclear-day">More talks are planned in Vienna this week</a>, and experts say the specter of the Natanz explosion will haunt the talks — though they’re divided on just what impact it will have.
Some say it’ll complicate negotiations.
“The attack at Natanz will undoubtably complicate talks to restore the nuclear deal. The window may not close completely, but Iran will likely harden its position about the sequencing of actions for the US and Iran to return to compliance,” said Kelsey Davenport, director for nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association, which supports the US returning to the deal. “The nuclear agreement will not last if its benefits to Iran are continually undermined.”
Those making this argument say that Iran has less political space to agree to a deal with the US now, because doing so would be extra embarrassing after being attacked. As a result, any progress on this front will at best be delayed and at worst derailed indefinitely. “Iran doesn’t like to appear that it is negotiating from a weakened position or under pressure,” <a href="https://twitter.com/BrewerEricM/status/1381565756379443201?s=20">Eric Brewer</a>, who worked on nuclear issues in Trump’s National Security Council, tweeted on Monday.
Others, though, say that delaying Iran’s uranium enrichment by nine months actually <a href="https://twitter.com/RLHeinrichs/status/1381418744417767426?s=20">weakens Iran’s position in nuclear talks</a>. If Tehran increased its enrichment to pressure the US to get back into the pact — essentially proving it would keep inching closer and closer to obtaining a nuclear weapon unless the US agreed to come back to the deal — then without the ability to enrich uranium as quickly, that pressure on Washington potentially decreases.
What’s more, Iran is used to Israeli attacks. It therefore won’t be shocked into changing its long-term goal of getting the sanctions relief it desperately needs.
All eyes will be on the negotiations in Vienna this week to see how Iran responds. What the Iranian negotiators choose to say and do will directly impact how quickly the US can get back into the Iran nuclear deal — or if it can get back in at all.
 
 
source <a href="https://www.vox.com/2021/4/12/22379713/israel-iran-natanz-nuclear-cyberattack-usa-deal">https://www.vox.com/2021/4/12/22379713/israel-iran-natanz-nuclear-cyberattack-usa-deal</a>

vox Israel’s suspected attack on an Iranian nuclear site complicates US-Iran talks

A mysterious power outage occurred at one of Iran’s most important nuclear facilities on Sunday in what reports indicate was likely an act of cyber-sabotage carried out by Israel — and it could have serious ramifications for the future of the flounde…

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And while some, like Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev, believe investing to be the <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/robinhood-ceo-becoming-an-investor-is-the-new-american-dream-just-like-home-ownership-was-before.html">new American dream</a>, a little more than half of Americans (55 percent) own some form of stock, according to a <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/266807/percentage-americans-owns-stock.aspx">2020 Gallup poll</a>. Ownership was more common (62 percent) prior to the Great Recession and is still largely tied to factors like education, household income, age, and race.
Yet, stocks are more accessible than ever: Trading fees are extremely low, and employee stock ownership plans (ESOPs) are <a href="https://www.butcherjoseph.com/blog/esop/esop-popularity-on-the-rise#:~:text=ESOPs%20are%20Growing,productivity%2C%20sales%20and%20worker%20morale.">on the rise</a>. The concept of the “ownership economy” is gaining steam, even among regular Americans who aren’t tuned into the latest tech developments, as evidenced by the <a href="https://www.vox.com/the-goods/22313936/non-fungible-tokens-crypto-explained">NFT craze</a>. The ownership economy’s basic premise is that equity — allowing people to have a stake in a brand, business, artist, or even <a href="https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2021/3/16/22332680/newnew-creator-economy-pearpop">influencer</a> — generates loyalty, and establishes a relationship between the stakeholder and whatever they’ve invested in.
According to <a href="http://www.econweb.umd.edu/~davis/eventpapers/PagelBumped.pdf">research</a> released by the Columbia Business School in February, stock ownership drives consumer loyalty, and retail investors increase their spending at companies in which they own stock. This is, of course, good news for recognizable brands with devoted followings. The rise of <a href="https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2019/10/7/20894134/consumer-activism-conscious-consumerism-explained">conscious consumerism</a> during the Trump presidency has moved consumers to think critically about the brands they buy from. For better or for worse, people are demanding more from corporations and are willing to boycott or wage social media campaigns to demonstrate their discontent.
On the flip side, the Columbia research shows how consumers are moved to financially support brands they have a stake in — even if it’s only a few shares. The study, titled “Bumped: The Effects of Stock Ownership on Individual Spending,” analyzed transaction data of more than 9,000 American users from Bumped, a fintech app that opens a brokerage account for users and rewards them with stock through purchases from certain retailers. Users are able to preselect their preferred brands from 16 different groups, like travel and fashion (the study only observed the six most popular categories), and are automatically granted stock when they spend at those stores.
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The researchers accessed data on users’ spending transactions before and after they opened Bumped brokerage accounts. They found that after users were granted stock from selected companies, their weekly spending increased by 30 to 40 percent (an average of $23) toward those companies, and remained around that rate for three to six months. Loyalty, the researchers concluded, was a driving factor in maintaining a consumer’s relationship to a brand, and this incentivized relationship “closely resembles the compensation programs which address executives through stocks.”
Bumped CEO David Nelsen told Vox that the app allows for consumers to participate in an “entirely new reward mechanism,” similar to points or cash-back rewards. This isn’t exactly a novel idea; people naturally hold greater affinity for things they’ve invested in, but fintech developments that track and categorize credit card spending have only recently made this rewards process possible, he added.
“The concept of having millions of people investing small amounts became much more prevalent with Robinhood,” Nelsen said. “We didn’t have fractional shares when I was an investor, and it was harder to own things. Now, this technology is more widespread, and companies are building tools that break things down into smaller units to allow more people to participate.”
This idea of fractional ownership and equity is not exclusive to publicly-traded companies. Tech enthusiasts can become accredited “angel” investors for startups in need of funding, now that the Securities and Exchange Commission <a href="https://www.inc.com/amrita-khalid/the-sec-new-breed-of-startups-fuel-equity-crowdfunding-flame.html">expanded</a> its eligibility requirements for private investors. Similar to NFTs, fans can use bitcoin to “invest” in influencers through <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/bitclout-is-the-shady-crypto-start-up-selling-shares-in-celebs">BitClout</a>, a startup that claims to sell “shares” of a celebrity’s clout on the blockchain.
Most research into consumer and investor behaviors has generally categorized people as either a consumer or an investor. A <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1673320">2009 study</a> published in the Journal of Consumer Marketing was one of the first that sought to combine those two categories, although it relied on self-reported data to analyze participant motivations. Still, it found that investors are motivated to engage in brand-supporting behaviors in addition to purchasing more from the company, such as serving as informal brand ambassadors.
These behaviors solidify a longer-term commitment to a company’s success, compared to cash rewards or points that can be redeemed over a shorter period of time. Some user testimonies Bumped shared with Vox emphasized the value of having an ownership stake, but similar to ESOPs, it’s unlikely that the fractional stocks offered will amount to a significant percentage of total company shares.
However, this could still have a greater impact on the corporate end, as Bumped looks to expand its offerings through partnerships with different companies and banks. “You’re allowing millions of people to become small shareholders,” Nelsen said. “That can be extremely impactful for any brand.”
 
 
source <a href="https://www.vox.com/the-goods/22380411/stock-customer-loyalty-columbia-study">https://www.vox.com/the-goods/22380411/stock-customer-loyalty-columbia-study</a>

vox How owning a brand’s stock keeps customers loyal

2021 has been a big year for stonks. Day trading has increased dramatically throughout the pandemic as more people are at home and out of work, and the GameStop short squeeze in January briefly directed national intrigue toward the world of amateur …

Marijuana legalization has won

The US is nearing a tipping point of sorts on <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/8/30/20826835/marijuana-legalization-medical-decriminalization-federal-vote">marijuana legalization</a>: Almost half the country — about 43 percent of the population — now lives in a state where marijuana is legal to consume just for fun.
The past two months alone have seen a burst of activity as four states across the US <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/8/30/20826835/marijuana-legalization-medical-decriminalization-federal-vote">legalized</a> marijuana for recreational use: <a href="https://www.vox.com/2021/2/22/22295654/new-jersey-marijuana-legalization-law-phil-murphy">New Jersey</a>, <a href="https://www.vox.com/2021/3/31/22350330/new-york-marijuana-legalization-bill-law-andrew-cuomo">New York</a>, <a href="https://www.vox.com/e/22071959">Virginia</a>, and, on Monday, <a href="https://www.vox.com/e/22124508">New Mexico</a>.
It’s a massive shift that took place over just a few years. A decade ago, no states allowed marijuana for recreational use; the first states to legalize cannabis in 2012, Colorado and Washington, did so through voter-driven initiatives. Now, 17 states and Washington, DC, have legalized marijuana (although DC doesn’t yet allow sales), with five enacting their laws through legislatures, showing even typically cautious politicians are embracing the issue.
At this point, the question of nationwide marijuana legalization is more a matter of when, not if. At least two-thirds of the American public support the change, based on <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/11/14/20964802/marijuana-legalization-pew-gallup-poll-survey-public-support">various public opinion surveys</a> in recent years. Of the 15 states where marijuana legalization has been on the ballot since 2012, it was approved in 13 — including Republican-dominated Alaska, Montana, and South Dakota (although South Dakota’s measure is currently held up in the courts). In the 2020 election, the legalization initiative in swing state Arizona got nearly 300,000 more votes than either Joe Biden or Donald Trump.
Legalization has also created a big new industry in very populous states, including California and (soon) New York, and that industry is going to push to continue expanding. One of the US’s neighbors, Canada, <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/6/19/17438154/canada-marijuana-legalization-cannabis-act-bill-c-45">has already legalized pot</a>, and the other, Mexico, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/10/world/americas/mexico-cannabis-bill.html">is likely to legalize it soon</a>, creating an international market that would love to tap into US consumers.
The walls are closing in on this issue for legalization opponents — and quickly.
Many politicians have played it cautiously in response to these trends. While some high-profile Democrats, including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, have come out in support, Biden continues to oppose legalization. Republicans, including Trump, are almost entirely opposed.
But at this point, their refusal comes off more like a last gasp than a movement that can hold back the tide of change. At a certain point, lawmakers will have to follow public opinion or risk losing an election. And the public has spoken very clearly, time and again.
What’s less clear is how it’ll happen. Maybe it’ll be a slow, state-by-state battle before the federal government ends its own prohibition on cannabis, or maybe federal action will lead to a flurry of states legalizing. What has become clear is that legalization will eventually win, and the vast majority of states, if not all, will soon join the ranks of the legalizers.
In the span of two decades, marijuana legalization has gone from a fringe issue to one the vast majority of Americans embrace.
In 2000, just 31 percent of the country backed legalization while 64 percent opposed it, according to <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/1657/illegal-drugs.aspx">Gallup’s public surveys</a>. By 2020, the numbers flipped: The <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/323582/support-legal-marijuana-inches-new-high.aspx">most recent Gallup poll</a> on the topic showed that 68 percent supported legalization and 32 percent were against it.
There are a few possible explanations for the flip. The general failure of the war on drugs to actually stop widespread drug addiction (see: the <a href="https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/8/3/16079772/opioid-epidemic-drug-overdoses">opioid epidemic</a>), as well as backlash to the punitive policies the drug war brought, left a lot of Americans craving new approaches. The public has <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2014/04/02/americas-new-drug-policy-landscape/">come to see</a> marijuana as not so bad — less harmful than legal drugs such as alcohol or tobacco. The advent of the internet <a href="https://www.vox.com/2015/12/22/10621810/internet-marijuana-legalization-drugs">likely sped up</a> some of these conversations, too, and the spread of medical marijuana might have shown more Americans that the US can handle the drug’s legalization.
<figure class="e-image"><picture class="c-picture" data-cid="site/picture_element-1618270278_8204_1221929" data-cdata='{"asset_id":22427432,"ratio":"*"}'><source srcset="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/X_yI8HHPpG9K1f4S3J63l99p4Ss=/0x0:751x356/320x0/filters:focal(0x0:751x356):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22427432/Gallup_marijuana_legalization_public_surveys.png 320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/HugDgJ9imNDS3lWHSoUutgCBW3c=/0x0:751x356/520x0/filters:focal(0x0:751x356):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22427432/Gallup_marijuana_legalization_public_surveys.png 520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/o3G99X4hdg6mwjvqrMzgZWuFNjQ=/0x0:751x356/720x0/filters:focal(0x0:751x356):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22427432/Gallup_marijuana_legalization_public_surveys.png 720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/KAWIujEQTXaOqdeapq5iZkuGCUI=/0x0:751x356/920x0/filters:focal(0x0:751x356):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22427432/Gallup_marijuana_legalization_public_surveys.png 920w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/THfeGUUYGWMPi92pTq7F3VkY3hk=/0x0:751x356/1120x0/filters:focal(0x0:751x356):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22427432/Gallup_marijuana_legalization_public_surveys.png 1120w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/UvXAavEfjiC0IKTjv0HMup7Cjt0=/0x0:751x356/1320x0/filters:focal(0x0:751x356):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22427432/Gallup_marijuana_legalization_public_surveys.png 1320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/usWxKszu22aXsMOQhFtIJu1JrhY=/0x0:751x356/1520x0/filters:focal(0x0:751x356):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22427432/Gallup_marijuana_legalization_public_surveys.png 1520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Iok68cT7tkFWSCPYHjBPXFRkXTU=/0x0:751x356/1720x0/filters:focal(0x0:751x356):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22427432/Gallup_marijuana_legalization_public_surveys.png 1720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/-MGLrUeOYnuVJmYqkc35bCO0m1Q=/0x0:751x356/1920x0/filters:focal(0x0:751x356):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22427432/Gallup_marijuana_legalization_public_surveys.png 1920w" sizes="(min-width: 1221px) 846px, (min-width: 880px) calc(100vw - 334px), 100vw" type="image/webp" /> <img alt="A chart showing support for marijuana legalization in the US." data-upload-width="751" sizes="(min-width: 1221px) 846px, (min-width: 880px) calc(100vw - 334px), 100vw" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/G1wq3HS5S9BQdkeNVZqdjJdt18Q=/0x0:751x356/1200x0/filters:focal(0x0:751x356):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22427432/Gallup_marijuana_legalization_public_surveys.png" srcset="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/iJ7CIt3J4q_8X2DkXOvEAXL9Bdk=/0x0:751x356/320x0/filters:focal(0x0:751x356):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22427432/Gallup_marijuana_legalization_public_surveys.png 320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Q6Q4JogxcvpREoCpmLnWlYoWHVM=/0x0:751x356/520x0/filters:focal(0x0:751x356):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22427432/Gallup_marijuana_legalization_public_surveys.png 520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/jVYjKruKEC8eL1cxygel2CNfoBc=/0x0:751x356/720x0/filters:focal(0x0:751x356):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22427432/Gallup_marijuana_legalization_public_surveys.png 720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/pbiNnNZ2pzQ_QVlIErs4jSr9nf0=/0x0:751x356/920x0/filters:focal(0x0:751x356):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22427432/Gallup_marijuana_legalization_public_surveys.png 920w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/xVBf_0ADfDHeihkaRtTU5pMTtWI=/0x0:751x356/1120x0/filters:focal(0x0:751x356):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22427432/Gallup_marijuana_legalization_public_surveys.png 1120w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/JovPTT_38qFZjeTXQbwt6zXO7mE=/0x0:751x356/1320x0/filters:focal(0x0:751x356):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22427432/Gallup_marijuana_legalization_public_surveys.png 1320w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/t1x8oRJ6xZp2Nig-wxGEdW7_rYs=/0x0:751x356/1520x0/filters:focal(0x0:751x356):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22427432/Gallup_marijuana_legalization_public_surveys.png 1520w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/rTQSAtxAJaRjMnAs-tzvfC1Ycv4=/0x0:751x356/1720x0/filters:focal(0x0:751x356):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22427432/Gallup_marijuana_legalization_public_surveys.png 1720w, https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Bqbs9IF2ahF4LKCpLrAEwmgtiB8=/0x0:751x356/1920x0/filters:focal(0x0:751x356):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22427432/Gallup_marijuana_legalization_public_surveys.png 1920w" /></picture> <cite><a class="ql-link" href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/323582/support-legal-marijuana-inches-new-high.aspx" target="_blank">Gallup</a></cite></figure>
Regardless, the trend toward support is found in basically every major survey on this issue, with polling groups consistently finding a strong majority backing of legalization, from the <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/11/14/americans-support-marijuana-legalization/">Pew Research Center</a> (67 percent in 2019) to the <a href="https://gssdataexplorer.norc.org/trends/Civil%20Liberties?measure=grass">General Social Survey</a> (61 percent in 2018).
The trend toward legalization is found in the real world, too. Oregon voters rejected a legalization measure in 2012, only to approve a separate initiative two years later. Arizona voters said no to a legalization measure in 2016, only to approve another one four years later.
There’s even solid Republican support for legalization. Gallup found that a slim majority of Republicans supported it in <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/221018/record-high-support-legalizing-marijuana.aspx">2017</a>, <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/243908/two-three-americans-support-legalizing-marijuana.aspx">2018</a>, and <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/267698/support-legal-marijuana-steady-past-year.aspx">2019</a>; a majority opposed it in <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/323582/support-legal-marijuana-inches-new-high.aspx">2020</a>, but the difference was within the margin of error, and a sizable minority of 48 percent still backed legalization. Pew also <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/11/14/americans-support-marijuana-legalization/">found</a> a majority of Republicans — 55 percent — backed legalization in 2019.
This Republican support is also seen in the real world. In the 2020 election, Trump won Montana by <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/montana-results">16 points</a> and South Dakota by <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/south-dakota-results">26 points</a>. In both states that same year, most voters approved legalization initiatives, with pretty strong margins of <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/South_Dakota_Constitutional_Amendment_A,_Marijuana_Legalization_Initiative_(2020)">around 8</a> percentage points in South Dakota and <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Montana_CI-118,_Allow_for_a_Legal_Age_for_Marijuana_Amendment_(2020)">16 percentage points</a> in Montana.
To put this another way, marijuana legalization has appeared on the ballot in four states dominated by Republicans: Alaska, Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota. It’s won in three of them, losing only in North Dakota. Marijuana legalization is 3-1 in solid red states!
There’s little reason to think that any of these trends will change soon.
There’s a world in which you could envision growing support for marijuana legalization suddenly collapsing. Maybe after Colorado, Washington, or a few other states legalized, things went really badly. Teen use went up, along with car crashes, crime, ER visits related to pot, and other bad outcomes. Voters see the error of their ways and change course.
But that just hasn’t happened. In the states that have legalized, things have generally gone fine. There were <a href="https://www.vox.com/2014/6/9/5792448/why-people-are-freaking-out-about-marijuana-candy">some concerns</a> about marijuana-laced edibles in the early days, but those worries died out quickly as regulators instituted some new rules and retail outlets bolstered their advice to newbies about how to consume edibles. The gigantic rises in all the problem outcomes legalization opponents warned against never came to fruition.
A big tell here is how often politicians flip-flop to support legalization once their state legalizes and things go basically fine. In Colorado, then-Gov. John Hickenlooper in 2012 <a href="https://www.denverpost.com/2012/09/12/colorado-gov-john-hickenlooper-opposes-marijuana-legalization-measure/">said</a> he opposed the ballot measure, only to <a href="https://hickenlooper.com/issues/marijuana/">fully support</a> legalization and <a href="https://hickenlooper.com/issues/marijuana/">brag</a> about how his administration implemented it by the time he ran for senator in 2020. Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, who opposed legalization during his 2012 run, <a href="https://www.marijuanamoment.net/legalizing-marijuana-has-been-a-uniformly-positive-move-in-washington-state-governor-says/">said</a> in March that the one thing he’d do differently is “[embrace] this position of decriminalizing it earlier, had I known how successful this has been with not any really large increase in juvenile usage, which was a concern while we were debating this.”
There are also major forces that will continue to support legalization and encourage its expansion. The US marijuana industry is now valued at more than $18 billion, supporting the equivalent of over 300,000 full-time jobs, more than the total number of electrical engineers or dentists, according to the <a href="https://www.leafly.com/news/industry/cannabis-jobs-report">2021 Leafly Jobs Report</a>.
This is simply a big industry now, for <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2015/12/2/9831980/marijuana-legalization-industry-business">better or worse</a>. Any politician moving to shut it down risks incurring the wrath of hundreds of thousands of people losing their jobs. And because it’s a promising industry, there’s a strong economic incentive — between additional jobs and tax revenue — for more states to embrace legalization.
Not to mention that this major new industry can now use its economic weight to directly back legalization measures, providing much-needed funding to help get them across the finish line. In this way, marijuana legalization’s success at the ballot box so far will lead to more success.
There are, of course, still major barriers to full legalization nationwide. Marijuana remains totally illegal under federal law, including in states that have legalized it under their own statutes. International treaties prohibit countries from legalizing marijuana for recreational uses (although with Canada, Mexico, and Uruguay moving to legalize, it doesn’t seem like anyone really cares). Most of the US population still lives in a state that hasn’t legalized, and it will take a lot of time and effort in legislatures and ballot boxes to change that.
But it’s now very clear where the trends are heading. It might take several more years to become national reality, but marijuana legalization is here to stay.
 
 
source <a href="https://www.vox.com/2021/4/12/22371929/marijuana-legalization-new-mexico-virginia-new-york-biden">https://www.vox.com/2021/4/12/22371929/marijuana-legalization-new-mexico-virginia-new-york-biden</a>

vox Marijuana legalization has won

The US is nearing a tipping point of sorts on marijuana legalization: Almost half the country — about 43 percent of the population — now lives in a state where marijuana is legal to consume just for fun. The past two months alone have seen a burst of…